Abstract Proceedings 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) - Floods: from Risk to Opportunity - 27 to 29 September 2011 Tokyo-Japan Organized by: ICFM5 Secretariat at International Centre for Water Hazard Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices of UNESCO Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) 27-29 September 2011, Tokyo-Japan Ad-hoc Committee Slobodan Simonovic (ad-hoc commitee chair), ICLR, Canada Jos van Alphen, Rijkswaterstaat, Netherlands Paul Bourget, IWR-USACE, USA Ali Chavoshian, PWRI/ICHARM, Japan Xiaotao Cheng, IWHR, China Erich Plate, Karlsruhe University, Germany Kuniyoshi Takeuchi, ICHARM, Japan ICFM5 Local Organizing Committee Kuniyoshi Takeuchi (ICFM5 co-chair), PWRI/ICHARM Koji Ikeuchi (ICFM5 co-chair), MLIT Kazuhiro Nishikawa, NILIM Norio Okada, DPRI, Kyoto University Yuji Okazaki, JICA Kotaro Takemura, JWF Kiyofumi Yoshino, IDI Kenzo Hiroki, PWRI/ICHARM Minoru Kamoto, PWRI/ICHARM Ali Chavoshian (ICFM5 Secretary), PWRI/ICHARM ICFM5 International Scientific & Organizing Committee Giuseppe Arduino, UNESCO- Jakarta Office Mustafa Altinakar, IAHR, University of Mississippi Arthur Askew, IAHS Mukand Babel, AIT, Thailand Liang-Chun Chen, NCDR, Taiwan Ian Cluckie, IAHS-ICRS/Swansea University, UK Johannes Cullmann, IHP /HWRP, Germany Siegfried Demuth, UNESCO-IHP Koichi Fujita, NILIM, Japan Shoji Fukuoka, Chuo University, Japan Srikantha Herath, UNU Pierre Hubert, IAHS Toshio Koike, GEOSS/ University of Tokyo, Japan Shangfu Kuang, IWHR/IRTCES, China Zbigniew Kundzewicz, RCAFE, Poland Soontak Lee, UNESCO-IHP/ Yeungnam Uni., Korea Kungang Li, MWR, China Arthur Mynett, IAHR Katumi Musiake, Hosei University, Japan Hajime Nakagawa, JSCE/Kyoto University, Japan Taikan Oki, University of Tokyo, Japan Katsumi Seki, MLIT, Japan Michiharu Shiiba, JSHWR/Kyoto Unuversity, Japan Soroosh Sorooshian, CHRS, U.C. Irvine, USA Eugene Stakhiv, ICIWaRM, USA Bruce Stewart, WMO Kengo Sunada, University of Yamanashi, Japan Andras Szöllösi-Nagy, UNESCO-IHE Kaoru Takara, IHP Japan/Kyoto University, Japan Nobuyuki Tamai, IAHR Avinash Tyagi, WMO Stefan Uhlenbrook, UNESCO-IHE Taketo Uomoto, PWRI, Japan Kazunori Wada, PWRI, Japan Nigel Wright, University of Leeds, UK Tadashi Yamada, Chuo University, Japan Gordon Young, IAHS I 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) 27-29 September 2011, Tokyo-Japan Secretariat members at ICHARM Kenzo Hiroki Minoru Kamoto Yushikazu Shimizu Eiji Aoki Aiko Chiba Yoko Ishiwata Mikiko Nakamura Momoe Nakamura Masahiko Okubo Akemi Saito Yuriko Sakamoto Yuri Suzuki Daiki Takahashi Kyoko Takahashi Eri Uchida Contact: Ali Chavoshian ICFM5 Secretariat PWRI/ICHARM, 1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8516 Japan Tel: +81 29 879 6809 Fax: +81 29 879 6709 E-mail: [email protected] URL: http://www.ifi-home.info/icfm-icharm/icfm5.html II 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) 27-29 September 2011, Tokyo-Japan Foreword Three years between the two ICFM meetings were overloaded with catastrophic flood events including Japan, Pakistan, China, United Kingdom, North America, and Brazil, just to mention a few. They took a lot of lives, damaged the economies of the countries, ravaged the environment and generated impacts far outside of the watershed boarders. They brought to the surface a new reality – much more interconnected world subject to large scale floods and other hazards. Timing, location and magnitude of these hazards are subject to various sources of uncertainty that generally create higher socio-economic risks. This new reality calls for the international community to exchange experience, improve the knowledge and significantly invest in building capacity necessary to deal with future flood events. The Fifth International Conference on Flood Management and contributions in these Proceedings are offering insights in the current state of flood management around the world and will be an important forum for interdisciplinary exchange among flood management professionals, scientists and representatives of various governmental bodies responsible for flood mitigation, preparedness, disaster response, and recovery. Slobodan P. Simonovic, Chairperson, ICFM Ad-Hoc Committee London, Canada, August 2011 III 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) 27-29 September 2011, Tokyo-Japan Preface The first International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM) was held in Kassel, Germany, in 2000 under the name of the International Symposium on Flood Defense (ISFD). It was followed by ISFD2 in Beijing 2002, the 3rd in Nijmegen in 2005 and the 4th in Toronto in 2008. After the Toronto event, it was decided to change the name from ISFD into the International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM), rephrasing flood defense to flood management. This was to reflect the evolution of the view on floods from an enemy to fight against to a partner to live with. ICFM is a unique organization established and mainly participated in by grass-root practitioners engaged in flood management such as government officers, private company professionals, researchers and internal organizations. It is the only conference solely dedicated to floods. But naturally the subjects include all excess water disasters such as landslides, debris flows, storm surges and tsunamis. This time tsunami is specially focused and discussed with the six-month experience after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. I greatly appreciate for the authors of the abstracts totaling 410 from 51 nations. They cover all the management issues on floods with a large proportion in the fields of flood risk management (prevention, mitigation and adaptation) and forecasting and early warning, which clearly reflects the interest of participants and the needs for practical attention. I also wish to thank the International Technical Committee members for their kind reviewing the abstracts and encouraging colleagues to submit abstracts as well as full papers. I also take this opportunity to thank the Local Organizing Committee members for your strong support for the realization of the Conference regardless of difficulties in the aftermath of the mega disaster. Also my deep gratitude extends to UNESCO, WMO, UNU and the Foundation of River and Watershed Environment Management of Japan for their kind financial sponsorship for the Conference. Finally I hope that all the authors and participants will have good presentations and fruitful discussions at the Conference and also that outcomes will be soon put into practice to save more lives and livelihoods. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi Co-chair ICFM5, Director of ICHARM Tsukuba, Japan September 2011 IV 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) 27-29 September 2011, Tokyo-Japan Acknowledgements Japan and the world were stunned by the news and images of the March 11 mega-quake, tsunami and their aftermath. The daily life of the ICFM5 Secretariat members was also disrupted for a few days. In addition to all our worries regarding the reportedly once-in-a- thousand-year event, there was another serious concern that came immediately to occupy our minds: After all this, should we continue working towards ICFM5 as scheduled? The answer came out very soon. The number of submitted abstracts jumped during the last two weeks of March as the end of the month, the first abstract deadline, approached. As a matter of fact, more than two-thirds of the abstracts were submitted after March 11. More surprisingly, the on-line registration started a few days before March 11 and a large majority (almost all, in fact) of the ICFM5 participants registered after that date. People gave us no time to wander about the question and an encouraging push to keep going. We would like to extend our deep gratitude and appreciation to the abstract authors and ICFM5 participants for the faith they had in us and tangible encouragement they quickly gave us in times of need. Without them, it would have been very difficult to keep our motivation to work toward the Conference. We can never thank enough for the brave actions they took amidst the grave situation with a bleak prospect at that time. 410 abstracts submitted to ICFM5 covering all five topics as follow: 128 abstracts on “Flood Risk Management (Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation)” 55 abstracts on “Flood Disaster Management (Preparedness, Emergency Response and Recovery)” 98 abstracts on “Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems” 62 abstracts on “Flood Management in Different Climate Conditions and Geographic Zones” 67 abstracts on “Cross-cutting and other topics” In total, 359 of them were accepted after an extensive review. We are pleased to see about 190 (more than half) of the accepted abstracts were from Asian nations, clearly demonstrating the importance of flood management in Asia. We would like to convey special thanks to all ad-hoc committee, international organizing and technical committee for their great support and review of all abstracts. We would like to express special thanks to the authors of the selected abstracts to submit their full papers. In total, 120 full papers were submitted to the ICFM5 secretariat, out of which about 50 of them has been selected for two post conference publications. The selected papers will be announced in due time after the ICFM5. We know the other papers are a product of hard work with useful information and insights but had to limit the number of papers due to the publication capacity and ask for their understanding. We would also like to extend great