Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Feasibility Study 2016 scaling-up of Glacial Lak Outburst Feasibility Report for Flood (GLOF) risk reduction in Northen Pakistan Distribution of Glacial Lakes in Northern Pakistan (Google Earth Image) UNDP-Pakistan P a g e 1 | 120 15 March, 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS: List of Figures: ....................................................................................................................................3 List of Tables: .....................................................................................................................................4 List of acronyms: ................................................................................................................................6 Executive Summary: ...........................................................................................................................8 PART-A: ........................................................................................................................................... 11 1. Analysis of climate change risks, impacts, and vulnerability .......................................................... 11 1.1 Overview of the situation: ........................................................................................................... 11 1.2 Some of the major risks associated with rapid climate change: ................................................. 18 A. Changing climatic conditions and its impact: ........................................................................................... 18 1.3 Risks According to Region/Area: ................................................................................................. 22 1.4 Climate Scenario: ........................................................................................................................ 23 1.5 Major Climate Change Related Concerns: .................................................................................. 23 1.6 Evidence of Extreme climatic events (drought, floods etc.) and no. of people affected : ........... 24 1.7 Forests and agriculture: .............................................................................................................. 29 1.8 Conclusion (Observations and Recommendations): .................................................................... 32 A. Observations ........................................................................................................................................... 32 B. Recommendations .................................................................................................................................. 33 2: Institutional and beneficiaries’ situation analysis and economic benefits of the intervention .......... 35 2.1: Institutional framework and policies for DRR and EWS ................................................................... 35 A: Institutional Framework for DRR and EWS: ............................................................................................. 35 B: Policy and framework for DRR: ............................................................................................................... 40 C: Sector/policies and protocols with links to DRR: ..................................................................................... 41 D. Early Warning System: ............................................................................................................................ 41 E. Agriculture and Land use: ........................................................................................................................ 43 F: Affected ecosystem: ................................................................................................................................ 46 2.2 Analysis of the socio-economic conditions of the beneficiaries: ................................................. 47 A: Geographic and Demographic Profile: ..................................................................................................... 47 B. Livelihoods: ............................................................................................................................................. 48 C. Condition of Human assets: ..................................................................................................................... 49 D. Vulnerable Groups: ................................................................................................................................. 50 2.3: Reforestation and reduction in GHGs: ........................................................................................ 50 A. Linkages between the met services and users: ........................................................................................ 51 B: NDMA - Gaps, Challenges, Strengths and Opportunities ......................................................................... 51 SWOT Analysis of Agriculture Department: ................................................................................................. 52 B: SWOT Analysis of Met-Department:........................................................................................................ 53 C: SWOT Analysis of Forest-Department: .................................................................................................... 54 B: Challenges to Sustainable Agriculture and reforestation: ........................................................................ 55 C. Maintenance of the ecosystem services envisaged (re-forestation): ....................................................... 56 2.4: Analysis of Potential barriers: ..................................................................................................... 57 2.5 Description of the benefits of climate information: .................................................................... 58 PART- B: Logic of the intervention: ................................................................................................... 60 1. Theory of change / logic framework – baseline and indicators: ..................................................... 60 1.1 Barriers to be addressed: ............................................................................................................ 60 A: Hydromet Services/EWS: ........................................................................................................................ 61 1.2 Approach to address the barriers: .............................................................................................. 63 1.3 Theory of change : ....................................................................................................................... 64 2 | P a g e 1.4 Logic framework – baseline and indicators ................................................................................ 66 PART-C: Technical specifications: ...................................................................................................... 73 1. Equipment and infrastructure works: ............................................................................................. 73 1.1 Cost estimates and technical specifications: ............................................................................... 73 A: Availability, type and characteristics of equipment: ............................................................................... 73 B: Human resources and capabilities available at national and local level. .................................................. 74 C. Data storage and management ............................................................................................................... 74 D. Gap analysis: ........................................................................................................................................... 74 E. Equipment (Analysis, suitability and cost): .............................................................................................. 75 F. Type of information (agro-meteorological products/Services, etc.): ........................................................ 75 G. Restoration of degraded Forests: ............................................................................................................ 79 H: Home gardening: ........................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. I. Infrastructure works: ................................................................................................................................ 80 1.2 Sustainability of Proposed Interventions: ................................................................................. 103 A. Integration of relevant stakeholders in DRR activities: .......................................................................... 103 B. Infrastructure and community based Adaptation measures:................................................................. 103 B. Political Sustainability: .......................................................................................................................... 103 C. Social Sustainability: .............................................................................................................................. 103 D. Institutional Sustainability: ................................................................................................................... 103 E. Financial/economic sustainability: .......................................................................................................