INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGY SERIES World Water Resources at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century Edited by I.A. Shiklomanov State Hydrological Institute, Russian Federation and John C. Rodda Past President, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarc´on 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org C UNESCO 2003 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2003 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge Typeface Times 9.5/13 pt System LATEX2ε [TB] A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data World water resources at the beginning of the 21st century / scientific leader and editor, I.A. Shiklomanov, John C. Rodda. p. cm. – (International hydrology series) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0 521 82085 5 1. Water balance (Hydrology) 2. Water use. 3. Water consumption. I. Shiklomanov, I. A. II. Rodda, J. C. III. Series. GB661.2 .W67 2003 553.70905 – dc21 2002031201 ISBN 0 521 82085 5 hardback Contents Introduction page xi I.A. Shiklomanov 1 The Earth and its physical features 1 V.I. Babkin 1.1 Physical geography 1 V.I. Babkin and V.S. Vuglinsky 1.1.1 The area of the Earth’s surface 1 1.1.2 The World Ocean 1 1.1.3 Continents and islands 1 1.2 The hydrosphere 10 V.I. Babkin and R.K. Klige 1.2.1 The origins of water on the Earth 10 1.2.2 The contemporary hydrosphere 13 1.2.3 Global water exchange in the hydrosphere – the hydrological cycle 17 2 Water resources assessment 19 V.I. Babkin 2.1 Assessment methods 19 2.2 River basins and continents 20 2.3 Natural regions, countries and continents 22 2.4 The distribution of water resources within the year 22 2.5 Methods for studying long-term variations in water resources 23 2.5.1 Methods for assessing stationarity and trends 23 2.5.2 An assessment of cyclic variations 25 3 Methods for assessing and forecasting global water use and water availability 27 I.A. Shiklomanov and N.V. Penkova 3.1 The human impact on water resources 27 3.2 Water use 30 3.2.1 Municipal water use 30 3.2.2 Water use by industry and for power production 31 3.2.3 Water use by agriculture 33 3.2.4 The role of reservoirs as users of fresh water 36 3.3 Methods for assessing and forecasting water use and availability 37 v vi CONTENTS 4 Water resources, water use and water availability in Europe 45 I.P. Zaretskaya 4.1 Introduction 45 4.2 Physical conditions 46 4.2.1 Relief 46 4.2.2 Soils and vegetation 47 4.2.3 Climate 48 4.2.4 Hydrology 49 4.3 Socio-economic conditions and the use of water resources 51 4.3.1 Population 51 4.3.2 Economic development 51 4.3.3 Use of water resources and water use assessment 54 4.4 Hydrological data 60 4.5 Distribution of water resources in time and space 64 4.5.1 Initial data and methodology 64 4.5.2 Water resources of rivers and basins draining to the different seas and oceans 67 4.5.3 The water resources of certain countries and regions 75 4.6 Changes in water use and water availability 79 4.6.1 Initial data and preconditions 79 4.6.2 Changes in water use 84 4.6.3 Water availability for the regions and for individual countries 89 4.7 Conclusions 90 5 Water resources, water use and water availability in Asia 94 5.1 Introduction 94 V.P. Yunitsyna 5.2 Physical conditions 95 V.P. Yunitsyna 5.2.1 Relief, climate and vegetation 95 5.2.2 Hydrology 98 5.3 Socio-economic conditions and the use of water resources 104 N.V. Penkova 5.4 Hydrological data 112 V.P. Yunitsyna 5.5 Distribution of water resources in time and space 114 V.P. Yunitsyna and T.G. Markelova 5.5.1 Data and methodology 114 5.5.2 The water resources of natural regions and individual countries 115 5.5.3 The water resources of major rivers and the inflow to the ocean 123 5.5.4 The distribution of runoff within the year 128 5.6 Changes in water use and water availabilty 131 N.V. Penkova and I.A. Shiklomanov 5.6.1 Data and preconditions 131 5.6.2 Changes and trends in the use of water 135 5.6.3 Regional and national patterns of the availability of water 139 5.7 The problems of the Aral Sea Basin 145 K.V. Tsytsenko 5.7.1 The water resources of the Aral Sea Basin 148 5.7.2 Changes and trends in the use of water 149 5.7.3 Changes in the level of the Aral Sea and in the river flow regime 150 CONTENTS vii 5.7.4 The ecological consequences of the development of the Aral Sea Basin 153 5.7.5 Ways and means of addressing the problem 153 5.8 Conclusions 156 V.P. Yunitsyna 6 Water resources, water use and water availability in Africa 157 6.1 Introduction 157 V.I. Babkin and E.L. Skoryatina 6.2 Physical conditions 158 V.I. Babkin and E.L. Skoryatina 6.2.1 Relief 158 6.2.2 Climate and vegetation 158 6.2.3 The river network 159 6.3 Socio-economic conditions and the use of water resources 161 N.V. Penkova 6.4 Hydrological data 166 V.I. Babkin and E.L. Skoryatina 6.5 Distribution of water resources in time and space 168 V.I. Babkin, E.L. Skoryatina and T.G. Markelova 6.5.1 Data and methodology 168 6.5.2 Water resources of natural regions and individual countries 170 6.5.3 Major rivers and flows to the oceans 175 6.5.4 The distribution of runoff within the year 183 6.6 Changes in water use and water availability 188 N.V. Penkova and I.A. Shiklomanov 6.6.1 Data 188 6.6.2 Changes and trends in water use 192 6.6.3 Water availability by region and country 197 6.7 Problems of water management at the continental scale 201 J.A. Balonishnikova 6.7.1 A brief review of the problem 201 6.7.2 The Aswan High Dam and Lake – the hydroecological and social consequences 203 6.8 Conclusions 216 V.I. Babkin and E.L. Skoryatina 7 Water resources, water use and water availability in North America 217 A.V. Izmailova 7.1 Introduction 217 7.2 Physical conditions 218 7.2.1 Geology, relief and landscape 218 7.2.2 Climate 219 7.2.3 Hydrology 220 7.3 Socio-economic conditions and the use of water resources 224 7.3.1 Population 224 7.3.2 Economic characteristics 224 7.3.3 Assessments of water use 226 7.3.4 Use of water resources 227 7.4 Hydrological data 235 7.5 Distribution of water resources in time and space 237 A.V. Izmailova and T.G. Markelova viii CONTENTS 7.5.1 Data and methods 237 7.5.2 Regional and national water resources 239 7.5.3 Drainage to the oceans and flows in the major rivers 242 7.5.4 The distribution of runoff within the year 249 7.6 Changes in water use and water availability 252 7.6.1 Data 252 7.6.2 Changes and trends in water use 257 7.6.3 The availability of water in the regions and in certain countries 264 7.7 Water management problems in North America: Canadian transfers 267 I.A. Shiklomanov and A.V. Izmailova 7.7.1 The background 267 7.7.2 Problems of inter-basin transfers in Canada 272 7.8 Conclusions 284 8 Water resources, water use and water availability in South America 286 8.1 Introduction 286 V.I. Babkin and T.V. Grube 8.2 Physical conditions 287 V.I. Babkin and T.V. Grube 8.2.1 Relief, climate and vegetation 287 8.2.2 Hydrology 288 8.3 Socio-economic conditions and the use of water resources 290 N.V. Penkova 8.4 Hydrological data 295 V.I. Babkin T.V. and Grube 8.5 Distribution of water resources in time and space 297 V.I. Babkin, T.V. Grube and T.G. Markelova 8.5.1 Data and methods 297 8.5.2 Estimates of the water resources of regions and countries 299 8.5.3 River flow and drainage to the oceans 300 8.5.4 The distribution of runoff within the year 311 8.6 Changes in water use and water availability 312 N.V. Penkova and I.A. Shiklomanov 8.6.1 Data 312 8.6.2 Changes and trends in water use 315 8.6.3 Water availability 318 8.7 Conclusions 321 V.I. Babkin and T.V.