Delft University of Technology Exploring the evolution of biofuel supply chains An agent-based modeling approach Moncada Escudero, Jorge DOI 10.4233/uuid:21e0dc88-1a6d-4cfd-8831-40201be6f5bd Publication date 2018 Document Version Final published version Citation (APA) Moncada Escudero, J. (2018). Exploring the evolution of biofuel supply chains: An agent-based modeling approach. https://doi.org/10.4233/uuid:21e0dc88-1a6d-4cfd-8831-40201be6f5bd Important note To cite this publication, please use the final published version (if applicable). Please check the document version above. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons. Takedown policy Please contact us and provide details if you believe this document breaches copyrights. We will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. This work is downloaded from Delft University of Technology. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to a maximum of 10. EXPLORING THE EVOLUTION OF BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAINS AN AGENT-BASED MODELING APPROACH EXPLORING THE EVOLUTION OF BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAINS AN AGENT-BASED MODELING APPROACH Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. dr. ir. T.H.J.J. van der Hagen, voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op vrijdag 23 november 2018 om 10:00 uur door Jorge Andrés MONCADA ESCUDERO Professional Doctorate in Engineering. Process and Equipment Design Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands, geboren te Puerto Salgar, Colombia. Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: prof. dr. ir. M. P.C. Weijnen promotor: prof. dr. ir. Z. Lukszo promotor: prof. dr. H. M. Junginger promotor: prof. dr. A. P.C. Faaij Samenstelling promotiecommissie: Rector Magnificus, voorzitter Prof. dr. ir. M. P.C. Weijnen Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof. dr. ir. Z. Lukszo Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof. dr. H. M. Junginger Universiteit Utrecht, promotor Prof. dr. A. P.C. Faaij Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, promotor Onafhankelijke leden: Prof. dr. ir. W. A. H. Thissen Technische Universiteit Delft Prof. dr. P.Osseweijer Technische Universiteit Delft Prof. dr. ir. N. Shah Imperial College London, United Kingdom Dr. ir. A. Hidayatno University of Indonesia, Indonesia Keywords: biofuel supply chains, agent-based modeling, complex adaptive sys- tems, Neo-institutional economics, policy analysis. Printed by: Gildeprint in the Netherlands Front & Back: The cover describes the evolution of a tree and how this process is in- fluenced by both the provision of the right growing conditions (wa- tering, solar radiation, and nutrients) and by the collaboration among people involved in the process. The cover was designed by Evelien Jagt- man. Copyright © 2018 by J. A. Moncada All rights reserved. No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, includ- ing photocopying, recording or by any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the author. An electronic version of this dissertation is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/. to my mother and my grandmother for teaching me what love, faith, and courage really mean I have tried (I am not sure how successfully) to write plain tales. I dare not say they are simple; there is not a simple page, a simple word, on earth—for all pages, all words, predicate the universe, whose most notorious attribute is complexity Jorge Luis Borges, Doctor Brodie’s Report ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS If you want to go fast, go alone If you want to go far, go together. African Proverb Irst and foremost, I would like to thank God for giving me the opportunity to come F to the Netherlands to pursue my Ph.D. at Delft University of Technology and Utrecht University. The idea of doing a Ph.D. abroad seemed impossible ten years ago. Neverthe- less, because of YOUR grace, I am finishing my Ph.D. Thank you my God for allowing me to enjoy this unforgettable experience that have shaped the way I see the world. Christ, YOU are the strength of my life. I had the privilege to have four promotors as a supervisory team, which provided dif- ferent perspectives and different school of thought into the research making my Ph.D. trajectory much more inspiring. I am indebted to Prof. Margot Weijnen, Prof. Zofia Luk- szo, Prof. Martin Junginger, and Prof. André Faaij for providing the necessary conditions for me to grow as a researcher. Margot, I am grateful for your guidance, patience, valu- able feedback, and encouragement. Zofia, your kindness, support, valuable feedback, and encouragement gave me confidence and kept me motivated during my Ph.D. jour- ney. I treasure our discussions about literature, art, and philosophy. Margot and Zofia, thank you for your interest in my future career. Your support and guidance helped me to get the next step in my career. Martin, I am grateful for your support, valuable feed- back, willingness to always brainstorm with me, and for keeping me challenged during the Ph.D. journey. André, I am grateful for your enthusiasm, valuable feedback, and for always helping me to see the big picture without losing the important details. I owe special thanks to the members of my defense committee: Prof. Wil Thissen, Prof. Patricia Osseweijer, Prof. Nilay Shah, and Dr. Akhmad. Hidayatno for reading and assessing my Ph.D. dissertation. I also would like to thank Giljam Bierman, Pieter Swinkels, and Rob van der Lans. The lessons you all taught me during my PDEng trainee proven to be very valuable during my Ph.D. journey. Special thanks to Prof. Johan Grievink for recommending me for this Ph.D. position. Johan, I treasure our discussions about philosophy and process design. I would like to thank Raphael for hosting me at Imperial College London (ICL), which was one of the greatest experiences during my Ph.D. journey. Raphael, I really enjoyed our discussions about the future of renewable jet fuel in Europe. Koen, thank you for sharing your expertise on agent-based modeling, for your hospitality, and for lending me your bass guitar during my stay in London. Miao, thank you for receiving me in your house, for your kindness, for our discussions about modeling and models to support policy making, and for being my personal tourist guide in London. Becky, thank you for ix x your hospitability and for helping to get the internship at ICL. I am also very thankful to all of the people in the Centre for Environmental Policy: Aidan, Eva, Evangelos, Philip, Renee, and Richard for making my stay in London very pleasant The chapters in this dissertation are mostly the result of joint efforts. During my Ph.D. journey, I had the pleasure to cooperate with many inspiring people. Judith, your expertise, valuable feedback, enthusiasm, and support have been an important contrib- utor to the quality and impact of this dissertation. I enjoyed very much working with you and I am looking forward for future collaborations. John, I very much appreciate our insightful discussions, your enthusiasm, and the sharpness of your feedback. I am also looking forward for future collaborations. I am also very grateful of the privilege of supervising very talented master students. Henrik, Maurits, Sebastiaan, and Tom, thank you for exploring with me certain aspects of this research. I enjoyed our discussions and brainstorming sessions. Each one of you provided me with new ideas to address the research problem. I wish you all the best in your future endeavors. I was very fortunate of being part of two amazing research groups: Energy & Industry (E&I, TU Delft) and Energy & Resources (E&R, Utrecht Uni- versity). Thanks to my colleagues in E&I: Andrea, Amineh, Chris, Emile, Gerard, Gijsbert, Helle, Igor, Ivo, Jaco, Laurens, Lidia, Paulien, Petra, Remco, Rob, and Yashar for making my Ph.D. experience so delightful. I treasure all our activities together: section outings, section dinners, lunches, and drinks. My sincere thanks to Reinier for helping with the Dutch translation of the summary of the dissertation. Binod, thank you for making me feel part of your family together with Meline and Elise. Those weekends that I spent with you and your family brought the peace that sometimes I needed. I will always cherish the days we spend together in our Ph.D. journey. Joao, it was very nice to have you as a housemate. I treasure all of the amazing trips that we made together. Thank you for teaching me to be a visitor rather than a tourist. Thanks to you, I went to an opera for the very first time! Ben, you are one of the most interesting persons that I have ever met. I really enjoyed our con- versations. Thank you for bring to my attention some interesting books to read. You opened new worlds for me to explore. Kaveri, I still miss your laugh in the corridor, it was very contagious. Thanks for being such a source of joy in the section. Esther, you always have the right words at the right time. After our conversations, I always felt very encouraged. Thank for your support and encouragement. Arthur and Katia, thanks for hosting me in your house to discuss about poetry. I really enjoyed those nights. Javanshir and Shan, you have become the younger brothers I did not have. I am very glad I get to know you guys. You two helped me to combat the stress during the last stage of my Ph.D.