LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, October 18, 2018 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Who Is Likely to Court Releases Cargill Keiko Fujimori Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Win El Salvador’s From Prison JPMorgan Chase & Co. Peruvian opposition leader Keiko Dirk Donath Senior Partner, Presidential Race? Fujimori remains under investiga- Catterton Aimara tion over about $1.2 million in un- Marlene Fernández declared fi nancial contributions to Corporate Vice President for her 2011 presidential campaign. Government Relations, Page 2 Arcos Dorados Peter Hakim President Emeritus, POLITICAL Inter-American Dialogue Donna Hrinak Colombia: Protests President, Boeing Latin America Seek More Money Jon Huenemann Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, for Education Philip Morris International Tens of thousands of students James R. Jones Chairman, from public universities organized Monarch Global Strategies protests in several Colombian Nayib Bukele, a former mayor of San Salvador, is leading early polls ahead of El Salvador’s cities, asking the government to Craig A. Kelly presidential election next February. He is pictured on Monday, the day that he registered as a Director, Americas International candidate. // Photo: @nayibbukele via Twitter. comply with a list of 10 demands. Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil El Salvador’s presidential campaign offi cially kicked off Page 2 John Maisto Director, U.S. Education earlier in October, four months ahead of the election in Finance Group ECONOMIC February. Former San Salvador Mayor Nayib Bukele, who was Nicolás Mariscal Q U.S. Increases Size Chairman, expelled from the FMLN party last year, leads initial polls. Grupo Marhnos Opposition party ARENA’s candidate, Carlos Calleja, a businessman who of Credit Line Thomas F. McLarty III Chairman, owns the country’s main supermarket chain, is polling second, while the to Mexico McLarty Associates ruling FMLN party’s candidate, Hugo Martínez, ranks third. How is the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Carl Meacham Mnuchin has tripled the size of Associate VP for Latin America presidential race shaping up? What themes will be at the forefront of the a credit program, known as the Int’l Advocacy Division, PhRMA campaigns in the coming months, and what issues are most important exchange stabilization agreement, Carlos Paz-Soldan Partner, for voters? Are big changes in store for El Salvador? available to Mexico in the form of DTB Associates, LLP a “swap line” in case the country Beatrice Rangel faces a currency crisis, allowing it Director, Mari Carmen Aponte, former U.S. ambassador to El Salvador to borrow as much as $9 billion. AMLA Consulting LLC and former acting assistant secretary of state for Western Page 2 Ernesto Revilla Head of Latin American Hemisphere affairs: “Although polls in El Salvador show Economics, Citi A Mr. Bukele as an early front-runner in the upcoming 2019 Gustavo Roosen presidential election, in political terms, there is still a long time before Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos the election. Certainly, in the coming months, the two major parties with Andrés Rozental organized, longstanding national party structures will work hard on their President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior ground operations. This will be a hard-fought election all the way to elec- Policy Advisor, Chatham House tion day. The themes Salvadorans will want to see campaigns address will Shelly Shetty Head of Sovereigns Ratings, be security, improvement in quality of life and employment opportunities. Latin America, Fitch These issues have not had satisfactory and sustainable solutions in the Roberto Sifon-Arevalo Managing Director, Americas past 20 years. In fact, they have been the subject of empty promises and Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, have eluded concrete solutions for far too long. In the last year alone, Standard & Poor’s Salvadorans have seen breathtaking abuses and corruption. And like many countries, most recently Brazil, the electorate will ‘bill’ the parties in Mnuchin // File Photo: U.S. Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2018, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, October 18, 2018 POLITICAL NEWS Treasury Department tripled the size of a credit NEWS BRIEFS program, known as the exchange stabilization Colombia Protesters agreement, available to Mexico in the form Brazil Economic Activity of a “swap line” in case the country faces a Rises 2.5 percent in August Seek More Spending currency crisis, allowing it to borrow as much as $9 billion. A previous agreement under the Brazil’s central bank on Thursday said eco- on Higher Education original North American Free Trade Agreement, nomic activity rose 0.47 percent on a month- or NAFTA, offered Mexico a $3 billion credit to-month basis in August. A higher fi gure than Thousands of students took the streets across line, which the Latin American country tapped expected, the growth added to a 0.65 percent Colombia on Wednesday, the second organized in the aftermath of its economic crisis in gain in July. In annual terms, Brazil’s economic demonstration in less than a week to demand 1995. A senior Treasury offi cial told reporters activity grew 2.5 percent in August. However, an increase in higher education funding, El Wednesday the deal was not made in anticipa- market analysts say the growth does not yet Tiempo reported. Students from public univer- tion of any such event in Mexico, given the high suggest the economy is on a strong trajec- sities organized protests in several Colombian level of its foreign-currency reserves, at $173 tory. “At this stage of the cycle, the forward cities, including Bogotá, Medellín and Cali, billion. The “close coordination” of the Treasury momentum is still underwhelming,” Goldman asking the government to comply with a list of Department and Mexico’s fi nance ministry Sachs economist Alberto Ramos told clients in 10 demands, among them an increase in the “refl ects the mutual benefi ts derived from con- a research note Wednesday. education budget of 4.5 billion pesos, or nearly tinuous economic growth and fi nancial stability $1.5 million, by the end of the year. On Tuesday, in both of our economies,” Mexican Finance Colombian President Iván Duque agreed to ex- Minister José González Anaya said on Twitter Court Releases Keiko pand the budget by one billion pesos over the after signing the deal with his U.S. counterpart, Fujimori From Prison next two years. “We do not agree with Duque’s Steven Mnuchin. “We continue to value the fi nancial promise because we are demanding very close economic and fi nancial coopera- Peruvian opposition leader Keiko Fujimori was 4.5 billion pesos, which is the minimum public tion that exists between our countries to help freed by an appeals judge late Wednesday, and technological institutions need to be promote macroeconomic growth and stability, a week after she was arrested on corruption able to function in 2019,” Angie Delgado, the including on exchange rates,” Mnuchin said charges, the Associated Press reported. She spokeswoman for one of the student groups in a Treasury Department statement. Mexico remains under investigation over about $1.2 that organized the marches, told El Tiempo. has an additional $3 billion line with the U.S. million in undeclared fi nancial contributions to “Offering one billion pesos will continue Federal Reserve and last year renewed an $87 her 2011 presidential campaign that Odebrecht, suffocating our universities.” According to the billion fl exible credit line with the International the Brazilian construction fi rm, allegedly made. students, public universities are facing a $1 Monetary Fund amid uncertainty over trade Ties to Odebrecht forced President Pedro Pab- million defi cit in outstanding salaries to profes- relations with the United States, The Wall Street lo Kuczynski, who narrowly defeated Fujimori in sors and administrative expenses. The lack of Journal reported. The deal comes as the United a 2016 presidential runoff, to resign from offi ce government funding has prompted universities States, Mexico and Canada prepare to sign a earlier this year. to boost enrollment fees, which in turn has revamped version of the NAFTA deal, known as negatively affected access, Semana reported. USMCA, in late November. Student protesters are reportedly considering Temer Attorneys Ask Top camping out in Bogotá’s main square, Plaza de Bolívar, until Saturday, El Tiempo reported. White House Eyes Court to Annul Police More Sanctions Report Alleging Graft Attorneys for Brazilian President Michel Temer ECONOMIC NEWS on Venezuela on Wednesday asked the country’s top court to annul a federal police report that recom- U.S. Increases Size of The Trump administration is considering mended he be charged with corruption, Reuters additional sanctions on Venezuela’s govern- reported. Authorities have been investigating Credit Line to Mexico ment but is seeing less of a need to target the Temer, who leaves offi ce this year, for allegedly South American country’s energy sector, a top taking bribes. Temer took over the presidency The United States has increased the size of a administration offi cial told Reuters Wednesday. in 2016 after former President Dilma Rousseff credit line for Mexico to use in times of crisis, Venezuela’s fl agging oil production is playing was impeached. He cannot be prosecuted according to a new deal signed on Wednesday, into the consideration, the offi cial said. Still, while in offi ce, unless the supreme court The Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. the offi cial described potential sanctions on decides to strip his immunity. COPYRIGHT © 2018, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, October 18, 2018 Venezuelan economic sectors as possible. FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 “With regards to Venezuela, all options are on the table,” said the unnamed source.