ALBANIA POPULATION AND POPULATION DYNAMICS NEW DEMOGRAPHIC HORIZONS? M a y, 2 0 1 4 POPULATION AND POPULATION DYNAMICS IN ALBANIA NEW DEMOGRAPHIC HORIZONS? MAY, 2014 Director of the Publication: Gjergji FILIPI, PhD INSTAT Emira Galanxhi Majlinda Nesturi Rudin Hoxha EU TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE Bart de Bruijn Frank Eelens Jeannette Schoorl Copyright © INSTAT 2014 No part of this publication can be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Printed with the support of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation INSTITUTI I STATISTIKAVE Blv. “Zhan D’Ark” Nr. 3, Tiranë Tel : + 355 4 2222411 / 2233356 Fax : + 355 4 2228300 E-mail : [email protected] Printing house: POPULATION AND POPULATION DYNAMICS IN ALBANIA Preface and Acknowledgment NEW DEMOGRAPHIC HORIZONS? MAY, 2014 This publication on population and population dynamics is one of the thematic reports prepared by the EU Technical Assistance project team in collaboration with INSTAT staff. The report contains information about the composition and transformation of the Albanian population at a time when the country had already experienced two decades of fundamental changes. It elaborates on the Director of the Publication: demographic processes of fertility, mortality and migration, and places population change in a Gjergji FILIPI, PhD wider socio-economic perspective. INSTAT wishes to offer its special thanks to the EU technical assistance team. Due to their expertise INSTAT this valuable publication will help in understanding the demographic reality of Albania and the Emira Galanxhi changes that produced the present state of affairs with regards to the population. Majlinda Nesturi Rudin Hoxha INSTAT also wishes to acknowledge the contribution of the staff of the INSTAT Department of Socio-Economic Characteristics, who showed high professionalism and dedication. EU TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE Bart de Bruijn Special appreciation also goes to all other INSTAT staff involved in the census operation, and in the Frank Eelens production and analysis of the data required for this report. Jeannette Schoorl Finally, INSTAT also takes the opportunity to extend its appreciation to the Swiss Agency for Copyright © INSTAT 2014 Development and Cooperation for its support in the production of this publication. No part of this publication can be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Gjergji FILIPI, PhD Printed with the support of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation Director General of INSTAT INSTITUTI I STATISTIKAVE Blv. “Zhan D’Ark” Nr. 3, Tiranë Tel : + 355 4 2222411 / 2233356 Fax : + 355 4 2228300 E-mail : [email protected] Printing house: Lista e publikimeve tematike të Censusit 2011, Maj 2014 List of 2011 Census thematic publications, May 2014 • Censusi i Popullsisë dhe Banesave 2011: karakteristikat ekonomike • 2011 Population and Housing Census: Economic Characteristics • Dimensionet e cilësisë së Censusit 2011 • Quality Dimensions of the 2011 Population and Housing Census of Albania • Kushtet e banimit dhe të jetesës • Dwelling and living conditions • Migracioni në Shqipëri • Migration in Albania • Një klasifikim i ri urban - rural i popullsisë shqiptare • A new urban - rural classification of Albanian population • Popullsia dhe dinamikat e saj - horizonte të reja demografike? • Population and population dynamics in Albania - New demographic horizons? • Projeksionet e popullsisë, 2011-2031 • Population Projections, 2011-2031 • Shqipëria 2011 Censusi në harta • Albania 2011 Census Atlas • Tipologjia e komunave dhe bashkive • Communes and Municipalities Typology • Lëvizjet vajtje-ardhje për qëllime punësimi • Commuting from home to work • Dinamikat e tregut të punës, 2001-2011 • Labour market dynamics, 2001-2011 • Aplikimi INSTATGIS – hartat në web (www.instatgis.gov.al) • INSTATGIS – Atlas web application (www.instatgis.gov.al) ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Lista e publikimeve tematike të Censusit 2011, Maj 2014 List of 2011 Census thematic publications, May 2014 The last inter-census decade 2001-11 has been a historic period from a demographic point of view. During this timeframe, Albania, as the last European country, has completed the First Demographic Transition, has lost an unprecedented • Censusi i Popullsisë dhe Banesave 2011: karakteristikat ekonomike number of its population and further reshaped its demographic composition. • 2011 Population and Housing Census: Economic Characteristics The resident Albanian population decreased by 8.8 percent since the previous census in 2001and by as much as 12.0 percent since the 1989 census. In terms of population composition, the change since 1989 is particularly remarkable, • Dimensionet e cilësisë së Censusit 2011 involving both feminisation and rejuvenation trends. Whereas in 1989 the population consisted of 106 males per 100 females, the 2011 census indicated an almost exact balance. In the same period, the share of children under 15 decreased • Quality Dimensions of the 2011 Population and Housing Census of Albania sharply, going from 33.4 to 20.7 percent. At the same time the share of the elderly (65 years and over) increased from 5.3 to 11.3 percent and the overall dependency ratio declined from 62 to 47 percent. This low dependency ratio locates • Kushtet e banimit dhe të jetesës Albania in the middle of a window of economic opportunity that will only last for about 10 more years. Whether or not • Dwelling and living conditions the country takes full advantage of this demographic dividend depends on the extent to which effective policies are implemented to adequately prepare its labour force for the labour market and whether appropriate economic and social policies are in place to provide these people with productive jobs. • Migracioni në Shqipëri • Migration in Albania Compared to previous estimates, the 2011 census indicates further decline in infant and under-five mortality, estimated at 15.3 and 20.0 per thousand live births respectively. Despite significant progress in the reduction of infant mortality, Albania still has the second highest rate in Europe. The present census confirms previous estimates of a relatively high life • Një klasifikim i ri urban - rural i popullsisë shqiptare expectancy at birth: 74.8 years for men and 79.4 years for women. Census-based analysis suggests, however, that death • A new urban - rural classification of Albanian population registration is not fully complete and the calculated life expectancy is probably somewhat too optimistic. In 2001 fertility had declined to slightly above replacement level. By 2011, the TFR has declined to 1.66. A further decline • Popullsia dhe dinamikat e saj - horizonte të reja demografike? is likely to occur, given that the present sub-replacement level is achieved with a very low rate of modern contraceptive • Population and population dynamics in Albania - New demographic horizons? use. The analysis also provides convincing evidence of son preference and sex-selective abortions. Whereas the decline in fertility and mortality are processes spanning various decades, international migration only • Projeksionet e popullsisë, 2011-2031 occurs since the early 1990s. Emigration has remained an unabated force in the population change of Albania in the • Population Projections, 2011-2031 years preceding the 2011 census. Analysis of census data and information from other sources indicate that 573 thousand more persons left the country than returned to it over the last inter-census period, with about equal numbers of males and females. This gender balance suggests that international migration has entered a new stage, in which family-related • Shqipëria 2011 Censusi në harta migration has gained importance besides work related migration, and women increasingly engaged in moving abroad. • Albania 2011 Census Atlas Immigration is dominated by the return of the Albanians. Return migration has substantially increased in the three-year period prior to the census, during the economic crisis, and particularly involved men and people who lived in Greece, • Tipologjia e komunave dhe bashkive which was hardest hit by the economic downturn. • Communes and Municipalities Typology Whereas in the past marriage was virtually universal in Albania’s population and re-marriage – especially of men – was very common, the present analyses indicate postponement of marriage, falling re-marriage rates and perhaps even the • Lëvizjet vajtje-ardhje për qëllime punësimi emergence of abandonment of marriage. The lower marriage rates are recently mirrored by increasing divorce rates. The reduction in household size has continued during the last inter-census decade to 3.9 members on average. This reduction • Commuting from home to work can be attributed to fertility decline, but in addition also to the reduction in composite households with more than one family nucleus. • Dinamikat e tregut të punës, 2001-2011 While Albania has completed the First Demographic Transition in the decade before the 2011 census, trends emerged during the same period that can be interpreted as first steps in the Second Demographic Transition (SDT): a decline • Labour market dynamics, 2001-2011 to sub-replacement fertility, a rise in age at first marriage- and divorce rates, and a decline in re-marriage. Other SDT characteristics – e.g. the adoption of modern contraception and structural net immigration – are not (yet) forthcoming. For, again, other more specific data and analyses