ATTACHMENT 8A Transit Operations Quarterly Report For the Period January 1, 2018 – March 31, 2018 (Q3 of FY18) Page 1 of 46 Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... 3 Key Performance Indicators ............................................................................................ 6 Ridership ....................................................................................................................... 13 Farebox Recovery ......................................................................................................... 21 On-Time Performance ................................................................................................... 23 NCTD Customer Feedback ........................................................................................... 24 Paratransit and Fixed-Route Wheelchair Usage ............................................................ 33 Fare Collection System ................................................................................................. 37 Appendix A: BREEZE Descriptions and Service Statistics ............................................ 38 Appendix B: BREEZE Composite Rankings by Day Type ............................................. 40 Appendix C: October Service Change Ridership Trends .............................................. 44 Appendix D: COASTER & SPRINTER Quarterly Performance ..................................... 46 Page 2 of 46 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NCTD produces the Transit Operations Quarterly Report (TOPR) to provide information regarding operational performance. The data contained in this report for Fiscal Year 2018 (FY18) is unaudited and subject to change. Final and audited financial and performance results will be provided as part of NCTD’s Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. In October 2017, NCTD conducted its first major service change in recent years with the elimination of six BREEZE routes and modification of other routes. NCTD reduced average weekday revenue miles by nearly 8% and average weekday revenue hours by over 6% while only seeing a decrease in total BREEZE ridership of 2% from FY17 Q3 to FY18 Q3. Year to date, system ridership declined by 3.5% compared to the previous year. The following provides an overview of key performance indicators compared to FY17: Ridership and Productivity Compared to Q3 FY17, ridership in Q3 FY18: • Decreased by 3.2% on BREEZE • Increased by 2.9% on COASTER • Decreased by 2% on SPRINTER • Increased by 45.6% on FLEX • Decreased by 3.7% on LIFT Compared to Q3 FY17, boardings per revenue hour in Q3 FY18: • Increased by 5.9% on BREEZE • Increased by 4% on COASTER • Decreased by 1.9% on SPRINTER • Decreased by 44.5% on FLEX • Decreased by 1.6% on LIFT Farebox Recovery Compared to Q3 FY17, farebox recovery in Q3 FY18 • Increased from 12.67% to 13.63% on BREEZE • Decreased from 30.63% to 25.75% on COASTER • Decreased from 15.35% to 11.35% on SPRINTER • Increased from 11.87% to 15.41% on FLEX • Increased from 6.94% to 7.79% on LIFT On-Time Performance Compared to Q3 FY17, on-time performance in Q3 FY18: • Decreased by 0.5% on BREEZE • Increased by 2.4% on COASTER • Decreased by 0.2% on SPRINTER • Increased by 1.3% on FLEX • Increased by 7.1% on LIFT Page 3 of 46 These trends are consistent with national transit ridership decline. The trend is influenced by both operational factors and external market factors. Market conditions include the growing popularity of transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft, low unemployment, and increased automobile sales. Operational factors, such as on-time performance, reliability, and missed trips also impact ridership. In FY18, NCTD took proactive steps to address declining ridership and customer revenue trends. Actions include: 1. Implementation of Board approved route changes, which went into effect on October 8, 2017. These changes improved productivity and have resulted in increased ridership on certain BREEZE routes. This Q3 TOPR will provide information about the continued impact of these major service changes. Additional service changes to improve on-time performance and connections with other services went into effect on April 1, 2018 and are not captured in FY18 Q3 data. 2. Engaging with COASTER customers via survey to garner feedback about NCTD’s services. NCTD is also working with SANDAG to complete a public opinion survey for transit in the region. 3. Initiated project planning and received grant funding for a Comprehensive Operations Analysis (COA) – an in-depth study of NCTD’s modes that will guide future service levels, design, and implementation. NCTD also received a grant to support a Land Use and Transit Integration Study that will serve as a precursor to the COA. The land use study will inventory and analyze existing land use, planning conditions, gaps between land use and mobility, and strategies to address these gaps. The following graph shows the distribution of system resources (revenue hours and operating costs) compared to quarterly ridership and fare revenue. Page 4 of 46 Graph 1: System Distribution of Resources BREEZE SPRINTER COASTER FLEX LIFT 0.3% Q3 Ridership 61% 24% 13% 2% 3% Q3 Revenue 73% 4% 1% 19% Hours 1% Annual Budgeted 50% 21% 17% 11% Operating Cost 0.3% Annual Budgeted 39% 17% 39% 5% Fare Revenue Page 5 of 46 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS NCTD’s performance is impacted by both internal and external factors. External factors include but are not limited to: the number of weekdays, number of days of inclement weather, number of railroad closures, the unemployment rate, and average cost of gasoline. The number of weekdays can be a major contributing factor to change in total ridership because the average ridership on Saturday or Sunday is nearly half of average ridership on weekdays. For instance, the average number of weekday boardings in FY18 Q3 was approximately 34,000, about 1.3% of total boardings for the quarter. The table below provides information regarding these key factors. Table 1 External Factors External Factors FY17 Q3 FY18 Q3 Variance Weekdays 65 64 -1 Days of Inclement Weather 27 19 -8 Rail Construction Shutdown Days 10 10 0 Unemployment Rate 4.4% 3.4% -1% Average Cost of Gallon of Gasoline $2.88 $3.34 $0.46 These factors have varying degrees of influence on ridership. It is also important to note that overall transit ridership on a national basis is trending downward, as indicated in the ridership graph from the National Transit Database below. Graph 2 Total Annual Transit Ridership Graph 1: Five-year national trend for total transit ridership from May to April. Data includes rail and rural transit service. Source: National Transit Database June 2017. NCTD regularly monitors its performance to help manage service quality, efficiency, and cost effectiveness. The following section provides an overview of key indicators used for Page 6 of 46 performance monitoring. Tables 1 through 5 shows the quarterly and year-to-date performance by mode compared to FY17 and NCTD’s established performance goals. Total Boarding Riders – the total boardings on the mode. The goal for total boarding riders is an allocation of the yearly budget, based on historical trends from past fiscal years. Average Weekday Riders – the weekday boardings per the total number of weekdays of the period. The goal is derived from the budget and the historical percentage of weekday boardings. Boardings per Revenue Hour – the total boardings divided by the total revenue hours. The goal is derived from the budget. Percent of Service Operated – the percent of scheduled service that was actually operated. The goal is derived from contractual requirements with operators. On-time Performance – the percent of service that was on-time. The goal is derived from contractual requirements with operators. Major Mechanical Failures - the number of system failures that prevent the vehicle from safely completing the trip it is currently operating or from starting the next assigned trip. The goal is derived from contractual requirements with operators. In order to clearly illustrate the number of mechanical failures occurring in various modes, NCTD has decided to transition from the performance metric of Miles Between Mechanical Failure to the National Transit Database (NTD) metric of Major Mechanical Failures and Other Mechanical Failures. These metrics constitute failures of mechanical systems onboard the vehicle that prevent the vehicle from completing the trip or from starting the next assigned trip. Other Mechanical Failures - the number of system failures that NCTD has deemed that the vehicle should not continue en-route but do not prevent the vehicle from operating safely (for example farebox malfunctioning or a radio that is inoperable). Chargeable Accidents per 100,000 Miles – The number of preventable accidents per 100,000 miles where the operator was at fault. The goal is derived from contractual requirements with operators. Passenger Concerns per 100,000 Boardings - The number of valid passenger concerns per 100,000 boardings. The goal is derived from contractual requirements with operators. Call Response Time – The average length that a customer is on hold to contact LIFT. The goal is derived from contractual requirements with operators. Page 7 of 46 Average Length of the Call – The average length that a customer is on the phone when calling LIFT. The goal of 2:00 has been identified but the call should last as long as is needed to provide exceptional