National Maritime Foundation maritime PERSPECTIVES 2015 Edited by VIJAY SAKHUJA GURPREET S KHURANA Edited by Vijay Sakhuja Gurpreet S Khurana MARITIME PERSPECTIVES 2016 Edited by Vijay Sakhuja and Gurpreet S Khurana First Published in 2016 Copyright © National Maritime Foundation ISBN: 978-81-930159-5-7 Rs. 600.00 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission of the editors and the publisher. The views expressed in this volume are of the individual contributors and do not represent the official policy or position of the National Maritime Foundation, the Indian Navy, or the Government of India. Published by: NatiONAL MARITIME FOUNDatiON Varuna Complex, Airport Road, NH-8, New Delhi-110 010 Printed by: Alpha Graphics 6A/1, Ganga Chambers, W.E.A., Karol Bagh, New Delhi-110005 Mobile : 9312430311 Email : [email protected] Foreword I am happy that the National Maritime Foundation (NMF) has continued the practice initiated last year of compiling its annual web-publications in the form of an edited volume. This compilation of View Points and Issue Briefs on topical strategic, maritime and related issues places on record the latest developments in the areas of India’s maritime interest as articulated in ‘Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy’ (2015). The essays in this volume amply indicate that India’s economic, security and geopolitical environment continues to be dynamic, posing multifarious challenges for national policymaking, as also opportunities for inter-state cooperation. I am confident that this compilation would help the readers to discern the emerging trends for more rigorous policy-relevant analyses, and serve to further the Foundation’s overarching objective to promote maritime awareness among the broader strategic community and public at large. Date: 1 February 2016 Admiral DK Joshi PVSM, AVSM, YSM, NM, VSM (Retd.) Place : New Delhi Chairman National Maritime Foundation Contents Foreword 5 MARITIME STRATEGY AND GEOPOLITICS ‘Indo-Asia Pacific’ Explained: An Assessment of US Maritime Strategy 2015 15 Gurpreet S Khurana ‘Indo-Pacific’: Evolving Perceptions and Dynamics 19 Premesha Saha The US-Japan Alliance: Japan’s Security Provider? 28 Gargi Vyas China Challenges the Unipolar World Order: An Assessment of China’s Defence White Paper 2014 38 Gurpreet S Khurana China’s Military Strategy White Paper 2014: Far Seas Operations and the Indian Ocean Region 42 Himanil Raina China-US ‘Grand Bargain’: India’s Future Stakes in Great Power Peace 45 Rana Divyank Chaudhary Evolving Dynamics of China-Africa Strategic Ties 52 Antara Ghosal Singh ‘Net Security Provider’ Defined: An Analysis of India’s New Maritime 62 Strategy - 2015 Gurpreet S Khurana AUSINDEX-2015: Australia ‘Pivots’ to the Indian Ocean 65 Gurpreet S Khurana 7 Reassertion of India–US–Japan–Australia Quadrilateral 68 Dinesh Yadav The Maritime ‘Rise’ of Indonesia: Indicators, Intentions and Inferences 71 Gurpreet S Khurana Indonesia’s New Maritime Doctrine: Continuity and Change 78 Premesha Saha Seychelles New Mantra: Indian Ocean ‘Zone of Peace and Opportunity’ 86 Vijay Sakhuja China-Russia Naval Exercises: Signs of a Credible Alignment? 89 Rana Divyank Chaudhary Obama-Xi Meeting: A Backgrounder 92 Antara Ghosal Singh MARITIME ECONOMICS AND BLUE ECONOMY ‘Smart’ Port Cities 105 Sandeep Bali Ganga Jal Marg Vikas (GJMV) and Integrated National Waterway Transportation Grid (Inwtg): Towards Developing India’s Internal Waterways 107 GS Inda Cluster Theory and the Rise of Shipbuilding in South Korea 115 Akshita Mathur Indian Prime Minister’s Visit to South Korea Takeaway for Indian Shipbuilding 118 S Navaneetha Krishnan and Antony Prince The Indian Ocean Region: In Pursuit of Blue Economy 121 Asmita Bakshi Blue Economy: India Must Prepare for Sermon from Seychelles 124 Vijay Sakhuja 8 Blue Economy: Harmonizing IORA Declaration and UN Sustainable 127 Development Goals Vijay Sakhuja MARITIME INITIATIVE AND COOPERATION China’s ‘Maritime Silk Road’: Beyond ‘Economics’ 133 Gurpreet S Khurana India’s Approach to China’s Maritime Silk Road: An Alternative View 136 Gurpreet S Khurana South Asia on the Maritime Silk Road: The Beijing Consensus Reconsidered 140 Rana Divyank Chaudhary China’s ‘Africa Push’ For Its Maritime Silk Road Initiative 147 Antara Ghosal Singh Debating Security Dimension of China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road 158 Raghavendra Mishra ‘Maritime Silk Road’, ‘Mausam’ and the Dynamic Discourse of Maritime History 162 Adwita Rai Project Mausam — A Preliminary Assessment of India’s Grand Maritime Strategy 165 from a Southeast Asian Perspective Thomas Daniel Connecting Chinese and Indian Initiatives in the Indian Ocean 173 Dr. Zeng Xiangyu Evolving India-Australia Maritime Interface in the Indian Ocean 177 Saketha Potlapalli Still Waters, Deep Waters: Way Ahead for India-Maldives-Sri Lanka 186 Maritime Cooperation Sripathi Narayanan 9 MARITIME SECURITY, NAVAL OPERATIONS AND CAPABILITIES The Expanding Maritime Geography of the Chinese Navy 195 Vijay Sakhuja China’s Yuan-class Submarine Visits Karachi: An Assessment 198 Gurpreet S Khurana ‘Sea-based’ PLA Navy may not need ‘String of Pearls’ in the Indian Ocean 201 Gurpreet S Khurana* India Needs Sea-Based ‘Active’ Deterrence against State-Sponsored Terrorism 204 Gurpreet S Khurana Deep-Sea Fishing: A Solution to India-Sri Lanka Fishing Issue? 207 Shereen Sherif India’s Yemen Evacuation: An Evolving Doctrine 211 Gurpreet S Khurana Drinking Water Crisis in Maldives: India Leads the Way 217 Kapil Narula Maritime Cyber Attacks are a Reality 220 Vijay Sakhuja Classification Rules for Naval Warships: Heralding a Change 223 Kapil Narula and Nitin Agarwala EUNAVFOR Mediterranean: Balancing Human Safety and National Security 229 Nitika Srivastava MARITIME LaW AND JURISDICTION Can ASEAN Prevent the Inevitable in the South China Sea? 235 Rana Divyank Chaudhary Iran’s Diplomatic Initiatives: Maritime Dispute Settlement 238 Shashwat Tiwari 10 International Tribunal Order on ‘Provisional Measures’ in MV Enrica Lexie Case: 240 A Preliminary Analysis Raghavendra Mishra Determining ‘Territorial Sovereignty’ in Maritime Disputes 250 Raghavendra Mishra Historical and Taxonomical Claims Over South China Sea 260 Dinesh Yadav China’s Position Paper on South China Sea Dispute with the Philippines : 263 An Analysis Raghavendra Mishra ‘Lawfare’ in the South China Sea: The Latest Round 267 Raghavendra Mishra South China Sea Reclamations: China Makes ‘Public Goods’ Argument 278 Vijay Sakhuja ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN SECURITY The Global Oil Slump and its Impact 283 Shashwat Tiwari Developments in Clean Shipping – Emergence of LNG as a Marine Fuel 285 Kapil Narula Slump in Global Oil Prices and its Implications for Vietnam’s Economy 292 Ashok Rai ‘Life Below Water’: An Agenda for Sustainable Development of the Oceans 295 Kapil Narula World Oceans Day 298 Kapil Narula China’s Humanitarian Activism 301 Antara Ghosal Singh 11 Rohingya Crisis: A New Paradigm for Navies 311 Vijay Sakhuja EU Response to the Refugee Crisis: An Analysis 314 Abhiruchi Chatterjee Deconstructing the Humanitarian Crisis in Calais 322 Abhiruchi Chatterjee Developments in Clean Shipping: IMO Regulations and its Implications 325 Kapil Narula 12 Maritime Strategy and Geopolitics ‘Indo-Asia Pacific’ Explained: An Assessment of US Maritime Strategy 2015 Gurpreet S Khurana In March 2015, the United States service articulation. Besides, due to fiscal published a new maritime strategy uncertainties the US is facing today, an document titled ‘A Cooperative Strategy inter-service synergy is necessary to avoid for 21st Century Seapower’ (Strategy- duplication of resources and optimise 2015). It supersedes the one of the investments for capability development. same title published eight years ago in Notably, unlike the 2007 document, October 2007 (Strategy-2007). It is the the new strategy contains a ‘Preface’ first maritime strategy to be released by the Secretary of the Navy, which after the US announced its ‘Rebalance indicates an enhanced political interface to Asia’ in 2011, and comes amidst with the Sea Services, possibly in terms seminal developments with far-reaching of both oversight and support of the geopolitical and security ramifications. higher national leadership. This view-point attempts to analyze Strategy-2015, including in comparison Indo-Asia-Pacific to Strategy-2007. The new strategy contains an explicit Jointness and Political Interface focus on the region that it calls the “Indo-Asia-Pacific”. While US officials Strategy-07 was the first-ever combined have been increasingly using this phrase, strategy of the three US Sea Services the 2015 Strategy document is the first (Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard). official articulation. The inference is Strategy-2015 maintains this feature, two-fold: with is appropriate since the maritime environment is essentially ‘joint’’, and • First, it denotes the realisation therefore, any strategy relating to the of the ‘inadequacy’ of ‘Asia-Pacific’ maritime realm cannot be a single- to address the emerging geopolitical, 15 economic and security dynamics of the (and) aggression” and the (Chinese) rising Asia. “anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities that challenge our global • Second, while the phrase ‘Indo- maritime access....” Furthermore, it Pacific’ has become more prevalent in is more explicit on the ‘geography’ of Asia since 2007, the US preference to piracy, the effects of religious radicalism