THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2020 Over $100 million in sales in our first quarter Welcome to our first report for 2020. the line at a pace corporates just can’t keep up Non-bank lending on the rise in New with. These privates are now operating in the Zealand In an exceptional first quarter for the Whillans $50-$100 million market. team, we’ve started out the year selling more In this edition of the Whillans Report, Senior than $100 million in property. Michael Pleciak joins the Whillans team Analyst Brendan Keenan reviews new banking regulations introduced by the Reserve Bank Our notable sales for this quarter include: We welcome Michael Pleciak to our team. and the rise of non-bank lending in New Michael brings with him a wealth of local and Zealand. 90-92 Queen Street — Henry Thompson international sales experience. He has an 112 Queen Street — Henry Thompson exceptional following of clients based in North We trust you find this report valuable. America, Europe, Asia and Australia. I look forward to doing business with you in the 220 Queen Street — Henry Thompson Continued success in a changing market near future. Private investors dominate the market This year, 2020, marks our 10th year in Private investors continue to lead the business. Throughout this time we’ve found investment market in Auckland. success under a variety of market conditions. Bruce Whillans As we make our way into our next decade, Managing Director The corporate sector can’t move as quickly we’re facing a changing market once again. as its private counterparts. Corporate T +64 (09) 304 1453 investors are finding it tougher to deal with The success of our business is based on our M +64 (21) 985 619 bruce.whillans requirements to justify any structural issues as solid foundation of clients, our wide network, @whillans.co.nz part of their due diligence. On the other hand, and our extensive experience. We work cashed-up privates are getting major deals over confidently and discreetly. Our track record reflects this success and affirms our standards. 90-92 Queen Street, Auckland CBD 112 Queen Street, Auckland CBD 220 Queen Street, Auckland CBD $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $47,500,000 Market 2019 fourth quarter update Auckland CBD Office Market Summary* CBD Office — Investment activity in the Vacancy rates and net effective office rents PRIME SECONDARY PREV 6MTH TREND Auckland CBD office market remained buoyant changed little over the year. Prime net effective Vacancy 3.6% 10.2% Increasing during 2019. Falling interest rates, attractive rents increased 1.2%, followed by secondary yield spreads and a shrinking pool of assets for rents increasing just 1%. Effective Rent $403 $245 Increasing sale drove CBD office yields to all-time lows. Yield 5.63% 6.56% Firming Leasing incentives rose moderately over 2019, During 2019, prime office yields firmed by 13 sapping total net effective rental growth. The Incentives* 10.1 mths 9.5 mths Increasing basis points to 5.63%. Over the same period, CBD vacancy rate as at December 2019 was * Based on an indicative new 9-year prime secondary office yields tightened by 27 basis 6.9%, compared to 7.2% the year before. and 6 year secondary lease points to reach 6.56%. Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz © 1 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2020 Market 2019 fourth quarter update Auckland Industrial Market Summary Auckland Industrial — Strong demand decelerated over 2019, increasing by only PRIME SECONDARY PREV 6MTH TREND from occupiers and a shortage of industrial 1.8%. This compares to an annual growth Vacancy 1.2% 1.5% Flat space continue to support historically low rate of 4.2% for prime and 5.3% for secondary vacancy. As at December 2019, Auckland’s over the last five years. However, industrial Effective Rent $144.7 $113.7 Increasing total industrial vacancy was just 1.4%. Land yields continued to firm in 2019. Prime Yield 4.96% 5.83% Firming values rose significantly over the course of yields tightened by 28 basis points to 4.96%. Land Value $850 $425 Increasing 2019, increasing by 12.6% to $633/m2. Prime Secondary yields firmed 47 basis points to and secondary net effective rental growth 5.83%. Auckland CBD Retail Market Summary CBD Retail — Auckland’s prime CBD retail These sales have set new benchmarks for retail AVERAGE HIGH LOW PREV 6MTH TREND market remained stable over the course on lower Queen Street. Rent $3,925 $4,800 $2,150 Flat of 2019. Prime Queen Street retail rents New leasing opportunities have been created increased marginally, lifting 1.1% to $3,925/m2. Yield 4.71% 4.5% 5.00% Flat by the opening of Commercial Bay. Several Yields firmed by 8 basis points to 4.71%. luxury brands are due to open their flagship A number of prime Queen Street investment doors on lower Queen Street. Source: Statistical data in this market update has been summarised from CBRE research and is intended for sales took place during the fourth quarter of general guidance only. No responsibility is accepted 2019 and the first quarter of 2020. by CBRE or Whillans Realty Group Limited for any omissions or errors contained within this report. The rise of non-bank lending in New Zealand — Brendan Keenan, Senior Analyst New banking regulations introduced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have reignited the country’s non-bank lending sector. In this edition of the Whillans Report, we What do banks have against the new review the reasons behind the new regulations rules? and explore their impact on New Zealand’s While financial stability is in everyone’s commercial real estate market. interest, the RBNZ and the country’s After two and a half years of consultation, the commercial banks are at loggerheads over the RBNZ introduced a raft of new regulatory new regulations. changes aiming to protect depositors from The banks argue that the capital requirements future banking crises. These changes were will: passed in December 2019 and come into effect from July 2020. Banks will then have seven ▪ lower bank shareholder return on years to fully implement the new regulations. capital Under the new rules, commercial banks will ▪ raise interest rates need to increase the amount of shareholder ▪ shift bank lending away from higher- capital they have on hand. If a bank loses risk but also economically important money, it becomes the owner’s investment in sectors such as property development, the business (the bank’s capital) that is lost agriculture, and business. first, not the money the bank borrowed (that is, deposits). The larger the buffer for shareholder Banks will need to raise a lot of money to capital that’s on hand, the better a bank is able comply with the changes. Estimates suggest to protect depositors and avoid insolvency. that New Zealand’s ‘Big Four’ trading banks (Westpac, ANZ, BNZ and ASB) will need to New Zealand’s commercial banks are now raise approximately $20 billion over the next expected to withstand a 1-in-200-year banking 7 years. crisis, up from a 1-in-100-year event previously. But as the saying goes, there’s no such thing as a free lunch — these changes will come at a cost. Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz © 2 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2020 The rise of non-bank lending in New Zealand Limiting risk through a dual reporting Indicative of this unbalanced lending, New In the residential and commercial mortgage system Zealand banks have grown their residential markets, non-bank lending has increased from Under regulatory capital requirements, banks lending portfolio by 20% since May 2017. 9% of loans in 2009 to approximately 50% must set aside a certain amount of capital for However, over the same period their exposure today. to commercial real estate has increased 14%, each loan they originate. The riskier the loan, Unlike traditional banks, non-bank lenders and dairy remains virtually unchanged. the more capital needs to be set aside in case of can offer borrowers more flexible terms. a default. Unequal lending growth A shadow of its former self Until recently, the country’s Big Four banks Registered bank lending by sector (RBNZ) Non-bank lending market share in NZ (RBNZ) had used their own internal models to determine the level of risk a loan represented. 125 12% However, under the new regulations these 120 10% banks will be subject to a dual reporting system. 115 8% The new system requires the Big Four banks 110 6% to compare their internal models with the 105 4% RBNZ’s standardised model for assessing May 2017100 = risk. The banks then determine the amount of 100 2% shareholder capital they need to set aside for Non Bank Lending Share each loan. Previously, only smaller commercial 95 0% banks — like Kiwibank and TSB — were May 2017 May 2018 May 2019 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 expected to use the standardised model. Housing Dairy CRE Non Bank Lending While the Big Four banks can still use their own models, they mainly need to follow New void opens door to non-bank lenders This includes easier finance criteria, quicker the standardised model prescribed by the approval processes, and the ability to offer RBNZ.