NORTH SUMATRA INVESTMENT BOOK 4th Quarter - Feb 2020 edition A definitive guide on macroeconomic condition, data & information, key contacts, and potential investment projects in North Sumatra A Our Mission B PROVIDING Providing Investors with the O necessary data and information North Sumatra Invest (NSI) is a dedicated task force comprised of all North Sumatra’s policy U makers, including the Government of North PROMOTING Sumatra and Bank Indonesia, with full cooperation Promoting the right investment opportunities and projects T of Kamar Dagang dan Industri Indonesia (KADIN). Our mission is to attract Foreign Direct Investment CONNECTING (FDI) in North Sumatra to foster economic growth. Connecting investors with the U right business contacts S Indonesia’s Strong Performance Indonesia is one of the fastest growing economy in the world. Find how we perform relative to our peers. CONTENT Why North Sumatra? North Sumatra isn’t only a great market for your products, but also a perfect place for Main Informations production base. you will find Investment Projects & Other Potential Guaranteed by the government, potential projects are handpicked just for you. In addition, We also specifically collect potential tourism sites and products in North Sumatra. Licensing in Indonesia A quick guide on getting business license in Indonesia. It’s never been easier to do business here. 1 Indonesia’s Strong Performance Indonesia is one of the fastest growing economy in the world. Find how we perform relative to our peers. 2 Solid national economic growth Indonesia has maintained economic growth Indonesia’s Strong GDP Growth momentum against a backdrop of worsening | % year-on year & % quarter-to-quarter global economic moderation. Our annual QtQ Yoy economic growth eased slightly to 4.97% in the 6 fourth quarter of 2019. Cumulatively the 5.12 5.17 5.18 5.19 5.06 5.27 5.17 5.18 4.94 5.05 4.92 5.01 4.94 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.07 5.05 5.02 4.97 5 4.93 4.82 4.74 4.77 national economic growth was recorded at 4.21 4.2 4.01 4.01 5.02% (yoy) in 2019. 4 3.83 3.74 3.27 3.31 3.14 3.19 3.09 3.06 3 2 Institutions 2020 Growth (%YoY) 1 2020 Budget 5.3 0.04 0 -0.16 Bank Indonesia 5.1-5.5 -0.36 -0.3 -0.41 -1 -0.52 IMF (WEO Jan 2020) 5.1 -2 -1.73 -1.81 -1.7 -1.69 -1.74 -2.07 World Bank 5.1 -3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ADB 5.2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3 Our concern to Business Ease of Doing Business | Index, The Higher The Better Business has never been easier in 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Indonesia. In recent years, our 0 government has put significant effort 20 to boost business climate and we’re happy to tell you that our ease of 40 doing business rank has improved 60 72 73 73 significantly. 80 91 Our efforts to trim the licensing 100 period gave an impact to the business player. And we plan to 120 make it even easier. There is no 140 better time than now to invest in 160 Indonesia. Indonesia India Philippines Bulgaria Colombia Investment grade approved! BBB / Stable March 2019, Rating Affirmed at BBB/Stable The decision was supported by favorable GDP growth outlook on the back of resilient domestic demand and a small government debt burden compared with its peers. Indonesia’s sovereign credit fundamentals should be resilient to substantial exchange rate volatility. BBB / Stable May 2019, Rating Upgraded at BBB/Stable “We raised the ratings to reflect Indonesia’s strong economic growth prospects and supportive policy dynamics, which we expect to remain following the re-election of President Joko Widodo recently.” Baa2 / Stable Feb 2020, Rating Upgraded at Baa2/Stable “The upgrade to Baa2 is underpinned by an increasingly credible and effective policy framework conducive to macroeconomic stability. Together with a build-up of financial buffers, prudent fiscal and monetary policy strengthens Moody’s confidence that the sovereign’s resilience and capacity to respond to shocks has improved.” BBB / Stable BBB+ / Positive April 2019, Rating Affirmed at BBB/Stable Jan 2020, Rating Affirmed at BBB+, Outlook Revised to Positive “Indonesia’s economy is growing at a solid pace. The fiscal deficit to GDP ratio narrowed from a year earlier, and the government debt to GDP ratio remains low. “The rating mainly reflects the country’s solid domestic consumption-led economic growth, While the CAD somewhat widened, foreign reserves are ample relative to short-term restrained budget deficit and public debt, as well as resilience to external shocks supported by external debts. Its economic resilience to external shocks is maintained, supported by a flexible exchange rate, credible monetary policies and accumulation of foreign exchange the government and central bank’s policies emphasizing macroeconomic stability.” reserves.” 4 The Economist: Indonesia rounds out the top five of Asian economies that can Indonesia Enjoys Large Investments Relative to Peers within the Region2 look forward to increasing investment spending. (January 2019) 1 40 35 China 58.3 India 48.7 30 Indonesia 48.1 Vietnam 39.8 25 Singapore 39.2 20 Thailand 38.5 Japan 36.4 15 Australia 36.4 10 Malaysia 34.2 Hong Kong 32.1 (%)InvestmentGDPTotal/ 5 24.99 26.57 31.27 31.78 34.47 34.52 34.55 23.61 22.48 23.14 26.94 27.21 29.56 24.95 25.31 26.34 26.26 Philippines 31.9 31.31 0 South Korea 26.3 India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Taiwan 25.2 Myanmar 22.5 2018 2019e 2020e 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Investors are UNCTAD: Indonesia is listed in the top 20 host economies based on JBIC: Among ASEAN countries, Indonesia is the most preferred 3 FDI inflows, 2017 and 2018 (June 2019) flocking to place for business investment (November 2018)4 300 Indonesia China 52.2 250 India 46.2 2018 2017 Thailand 37.1 200 Vietnam 33.9 Indonesia 30.4 150 (x) = 2017 ranking US 28.8 BillionUSD 100 Mexico 13.7 Philippines 10.0 50 Myanmar 8.6 Malaysia 8.4 0 Germany 5.8 Brazil 5.6 Korea 5.1 % of surveyed who consider each country has promising prospects Taiwan 4.4 Russia 3.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 1. Source: The Economist – Asia Business Outlook Survey 2018 3. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) – World Investment Report 2019 2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Database October 2019 4. Source: JBIC – Outlook for Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (30th Annual Survey) 2 Why North Sumatra? North Sumatra isn’t only a great market for your products, but also a perfect place for production base. 7 North Sumatra Profile Governor : Edy Rahmayadi Vice Governor : Musa Rajekshah Capital City : Medan Regencies/Cities : 25 Regencies and 8 Cities GRDP HDI Geographic Advantages 2019 %share to national 2018 Located in the vast and prosperous area of Sumatra 5% 71.18% island, with total area of 73.000 km² Top 6 biggest province Categorized as high by economic comparison It is strategically positioned along the Malacca Strait and has long been a major trade center in west POPULATION INFLATION 2018 January 2020 Indonesia. 14.42m The 4th most populous 0.57% %mtm A MILLENIAL PROVINCE Province in Indonesia Almost half of North Sumatra population is under 25 years old. EMPLOYMENT RATE EXPORT 2018 Jan-Dec 2019 LOW MINIMUM WAGE LEVEL 71.82% At $177 / month , our wage level is cheaper than several countries Adequate human resources 4.41% %share to national in ASEAN. for supporting new business 8 Vigorous Economic Growth EXPENDITURE • At 4th Quarter of 2019, North Sumatra’ economic growth increased by 5.21% (yoy) compared to growth at the 3rd quarter: 5.11%(yoy). • North Sumatra economic growth was still stronger than Sumatra and Indonesia. Household Government Investment Export Import Consumption (51%) Consumption (8%) (31%) (40%) (32%) • This strong economic performance is 4.92 4.07 11.39 -12.94 6.26 8.54 -4.03 0.76 -4.33 -1.44 driven by the rapidity of investment Q3’19 Q4’19 Q3’19 Q4’19 Q3’19 Q4’19 Q3’19 Q4’19 Q3’19 Q4’19 sector. NoteNote :: amounts amounts inin parenthesesparentheses indicateindicate sectorssectors distributions distributions ofof GRDP GRDP at at constant constant market market priceprice inin thethe firstfourth quarter quarter of 2019of 2019 Economic Growth of All Provinces in Sumatra National, Sumatra, and North Sumatra Economic Growth Sumut (23%) Kep. Riau (8%) Aceh (5%) 5,21 5,21 Riau (22%) 5,21 2,91 Jambi (6%) Sumbar (7%) 3,59 Bangka Belitung (2%) 5,13 3,99 Bengkulu (2,11%) 4,79 Sumsel (13%) Lampung (11%) 5,69 5,07 : Higher than Sumatra's growth : Lower than Sumatra's growth 9 Growing Investment Realization 2018 2019 INVESTMENT REALIZATION BY LOCATION AND SECTOR ( JAN – DEC 2019) FDI & DDI : FDI & DDI : TOP 5 SECTORS BASED ON FDI VALUE TOP 5 LOCATIONS BASED ON FDI VALUE Rp 24,82 T Rp 25,44 T Medan 2,207.34 1,402.40 IDR Billion DEVELOPMENT OF INVESTMENT 1,144.22 Batubara 633.45 905.39 REALIZATION Madina 510 587.51 IDR Billion 413.86 8,000 Deli Serdang 498.86 7,000 Tobasa 317.03 6,000 Services Electricity, Gas Food Industries Mining Plantation and Water 5,000 4,000 TOP 5 SECTORS BASED ON DDI VALUE TOP 5 LOCATIONS BASED ON DDI VALUE Rp.