Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment Final Report Wandsworth Borough Council Tuesday, June 23, 2020 © 2020 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd, trading as Lichfields. All Rights Reserved. Registered in England, no. 2778116. 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL Formatted for double sided printing. Plans based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A 61559/01/PW/PW 18575889v2 Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment : Final Report Contents 1.0 Introduction 1 Background 1 2.0 Town centre market trends 2 Consumer expenditure 2 Mode of travel 5 Demand for Class A floorspace 6 Tourism, culture and entertainment 10 Summary 11 3.0 Hierarchy of centres 12 New London Plan Hierarchy 12 Relative attraction of centres 15 Property indicators 16 4.0 Retail need assessment 24 Population and expenditure 24 Existing spending patterns 24 Need for convenience goods floorspace 26 Need for comparison goods floorspace 29 5.0 Other town centre uses 32 Food and beverage 32 Other Class A1 and A2 service uses 34 Commercial leisure 34 6.0 Accommodating growth 42 Introduction 42 Strategy for accommodating growth 43 Spatial strategy 45 7.0 Strategic policy analysis 50 Overview 50 Hierarchy of centres 52 Floorspace projections and allocations 54 Impact test 55 Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment : Final Report Sequential approach 57 Impact and sequential test summary 58 8.0 Area specific policy review 60 Overview 60 Protected shopping frontages and local shops 60 Balham Town Centre 63 Clapham Junction Town Centre 64 Putney Town Centre 65 Tooting Town Centre 66 Wandsworth Town Centre 67 9.0 Summary and conclusions 69 Wandsworth Borough’s needs 69 Strategy for accommodating growth 71 Policy review 72 Strategic priorities for town centres 74 Future monitoring 76 Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment : Final Report Appendices Appendix 1 Methodology Appendix 2 Study area Appendix 3 Centre health checks Appendix 4 Operator requirem1ents Appendix 5 Convenience goods capacity Appendix 6 Comparison goods capacity Appendix 7 Food/beverage capacity Appendix 8 Stakeholder contacts Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment : Final Report 1.0 Introduction Background 1.1 Lichfields was commissioned by the London Borough of Wandsworth to prepare the Wandsworth Retail and Town Centre Needs Assessment published in April 2013 (WRTCNA). This report supersedes the WRTCNA. It updates the retail and leisure projections and provides a more comprehensive analysis of the role and function of designated centres within and surrounding the Borough. 1.2 The study seeks to provide robust evidence and main objectives are to: • identify the Borough’s needs for convenience and comparison retail, wider retail uses (Class A2-5) and commercial leisure uses over a 15 year period; • assess the Borough’s capacity to meet these needs taking account of protected shopping frontages, and other areas of the borough identified for retail and mixed use development, including at Battersea Power Station, the CAZ and Vauxhall Nine Elms Battersea (VNEB); • quantify available expenditure within catchment areas, identifying expenditure flows and new retail and related development in nearby boroughs; • update the qualitative assessment of need and capacity to include identification of gaps in provision and the range/mix of retailer representation; • assess the role and function of Wandsworth’s hierarchy of Town and Local Centres and Important Local Parades, including town centre health checks; • provide recommendations on appropriate Local Plan interventions/policies to meet needs and accommodate growth. 1.3 Experian's latest expenditure projections and deductions for home shopping were published in February 2020, and therefore take account of Experian's recent views on general retail market conditions and the post Brexit economy. However, Experian’s projections do not reflect the potential impact of the coronavirus pandemic. This study assumes this impact will be short-term and there will be a return underlying growth over the long-term. Pg 1 Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment : Final Report 2.0 Town centre market trends 2.1 This section outlines underlying trends that are likely to influence the need for retail and town centre facilities in Wandsworth Borough and the prospects for attracting new investment. The relevant results from a household shopper survey have also been reviewed and summarised. Consumer expenditure 2.2 Historic trends indicate that consumer expenditure has consistently grown in real terms, generally following a cyclical growth trend. Expenditure growth has fuelled demand for new retail floorspace, including major out-of-centre development. Since the last recession expenditure growth has been much slower. The demand for retail floorspace has reduced. Underlying trends still show consistent growth that should continue in the future. Experian’s latest post Brexit forecasts suggests slower growth in the short-term and home shopping/ internet spending is expected to grow at a faster rate than traditional shopping. Experian’s short-term expenditure projections (2020 and 2021) expect retail and leisure growth but do not reflect the coronavirus pandemic. These projections now seem optimistic and at least a short- term fall in expenditure on comparison goods, food/beverage (consumed away from the home), cultural and leisure spend now seems likely. The convenience goods/food store sector could benefit from a transfer of expenditure due to the temporary closure of pubs, bars, restaurant and cafés. Home delivery retail businesses could also benefit. At present there is no available data to confirm these potential impacts or the effectiveness of the Government’s counter measures. 2.3 For convenience goods, Experian’s latest forecasts (February 2020) anticipate limited growth (0.1% per annum). Actual average growth in convenience goods expenditure growth per capita in the UK between 2008 to 2018 and forecast future growth is shown in Figure 2.1. Figure 2.1 UK average convenience goods retail expenditure per person (£ per annum) £2,500 £2,000 £1,500 In-Store £1,000 £500 Non-Store £0 Source: Experian Briefing Note 17 (February 2020) 2.4 Figure 2.1 indicates that convenience goods expenditure per person decreased between 2008 and 2015 but recovered up to 2018. Experian expects slow growth in the future, but most of the Pg 2 Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment : Final Report growth will relate to non-store sales. Any need for new convenience goods retail floorspace in Wandsworth Borough is likely to relate to population growth, high current levels of trading and/or qualitative areas of deficiency. 2.5 For comparison goods, higher levels of growth are expected in the future (3.0% to 3.2% per annum), still at a lower rate than previous pre-recession trends (8% per annum between 1997 and 2007). Historically comparison goods expenditure has grown significantly more than convenience goods expenditure, and Experian’s latest national growth rate recommendations are consistent with these past trends. Actual and forecast average growth in comparison goods expenditure growth per capita is shown in Figure 2.2. As indicated above, the short-term growth projections for 2020 and possibly 2021, now seem optimistic in the light of the coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, the long-term strategy for Wandsworth Borough will need to assume a return to underlying growth and should plan for this potential growth. Figure 2.2 UK average comparison goods retail expenditure per person (£ per annum) £7,000 £6,000 £5,000 £4,000 £3,000 In-Store £2,000 £1,000 Non-Store £0 Source: Experian Briefing Note 17 (February 2020) 2.6 New forms of retailing (multi-channel and home shopping) have and will continued to grow. Home/electronic shopping and home delivery has increased with the growth in the use of personal computers, smart phones and the internet. Click and collect / click and return shopping has become more popular. The future growth of multi-channel retailing including home computing, internet connections and interactive TV will continue to influence retailing in the high street and from traditional stores. National trends within this sector will have implications for all areas including Wandsworth Borough, because they have affected the amount of expenditure growth that is available to support development and reduced operator demand for new floorspace. Recent trends suggest continued strong growth in multi-channel activity. Experian’s Retail Planner Briefing Note 17 (February 2020) states: “The strong increase in online shopping in the past decade has lifted the share of special forms of trading (SFT) to a level where it now accounts for close to 20% of total retail sales. Pg 3 Wandsworth Town Centre and Retail Needs Assessment : Final Report … We expect the SFT market share to continue to increase over the forecast period, reaching 26% by 2025 and around 30% by 2030.” 2.7 The floorspace capacity assessment in this Study makes an allowance for future growth in e- tailing based on Experian projections and household shopper survey results. 2.8 Figure 2.2 indicates that comparison goods expenditure per person grew slowly between 2008 and 2014, but higher growth was achieved up to 2018. Experian expect steady growth in the future. Even allowing for disproportionately higher growth in non-store sales, comparison goods expenditure