View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2015-12 Cultivating the grapevine: an analysis of rumor principles and concepts Nasi, Jamie O. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/47826 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS CULTIVATING THE GRAPEVINE: AN ANALYSIS OF RUMOR PRINCIPLES AND CONCEPTS by Jamie O. Nasi Jacob Sweatland December 2015 Thesis Advisor: Heather S. Gregg Second Reader: Dayne E. Nix Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2015 Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS CULTIVATING THE GRAPEVINE: AN ANALYSIS OF RUMOR PRINCIPLES AND CONCEPTS 6. AUTHOR(S) Jamie O. Nasi and Jacob Sweatland 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943–5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Rumors can be a perfect tool to subvert, deceive, or suggest what truth is to a population. However, despite the demonstrated ability of rumors to influence a population, current U.S. military doctrine does not address how to recognize, craft, or effectively counter them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the principles and concepts governing the spread of rumors for their future integration into Psychological Operations forces (PSYOP) doctrine and training. Specifically, this study draws from a review of current and historical literature on rumor theory to distill a set of principles to guide the successful employment of rumors, as well as a set of principles for defending against the employment of rumors by an adversary. These principles are then tested by the case study analysis of three examples of successful rumor generation, as well as two successful examples and one unsuccessful case of rumor defense. From its investigation, this study proposes two new models to assist the influence practitioner in the employment of and defense against rumors. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PSYOP, rumors, doctrine, influence PAGES 111 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01–280–5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited CULTIVATING THE GRAPEVINE: AN ANALYSIS OF RUMOR PRINCIPLES AND CONCEPTS Jamie O. Nasi Major, United States Army B.A., Norwich University, 2004 Jacob Sweatland Major, United States Army B.S., Ball State University, 2005 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION STRATEGY AND POLITICAL WARFARE from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2015 Approved by: Heather S. Gregg, Ph.D. Thesis Advisor Dayne E. Nix, Ph.D. Second Reader John Arquilla, Ph.D. Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Rumors can be a perfect tool to subvert, deceive, or suggest what truth is to a population. However, despite the demonstrated ability of rumors to influence a population, current U.S. military doctrine does not address how to recognize, craft, or effectively counter them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the principles and concepts governing the spread of rumors for their future integration into Psychological Operations forces (PSYOP) doctrine and training. Specifically, this study draws from a review of current and historical literature on rumor theory to distill a set of principles to guide the successful employment of rumors, as well as a set of principles for defending against the employment of rumors by an adversary. These principles are then tested by the case study analysis of three examples of successful rumor generation, as well as two successful examples and one unsuccessful case of rumor defense. From its investigation, this study proposes two new models to assist the influence practitioner in the employment of and defense against rumors. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY ...........................1 A. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................1 B. METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................2 C. FINDINGS ..................................................................................................4 D. OVERVIEW OF THE THESIS ...............................................................4 II. PRINCIPLES AND CONCEPTS OF RUMOR THEORY FOR MILITARY APPLICATION ................................................................................7 A. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................7 B. RUMORS AND RUMOR PROPAGATION...........................................7 C. RUMOR THEORY IN U.S. MILITARY DOCTRINE ........................10 D. TYPES OF INFLUENCE OPERATIONS AND THEIR ASSOCIATION TO RUMORS ..............................................................11 E. RUMORS AND INFLUENCE TECHNIQUES ....................................14 F. PRINCIPLES FOR THE EMPLOYMENT OF RUMORS ................16 G. PRINCIPLES FOR THE DEFENSE AGAINST RUMORS ...............21 H. IMPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY FOR RUMOR EFFECTIVENESS ...................................................................................25 I. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................28 III. TESTING THE PRINCIPLES OF RUMOR EMPLOYMENT: EFFECTIVE RUMORS FROM WWII TO THE INFORMATION AGE .......................................................................................................................31 A. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................31 B. IN THE DEFENSE OF BRITAIN..........................................................31 1. Plausibility ....................................................................................35 2. Simplicity ......................................................................................36 3. Suitability ......................................................................................37 4. Vividness .......................................................................................38 5. Suggestiveness ..............................................................................38 C. ZIONIST PLOTTING OF 9/11 ..............................................................38 1. Plausibility ....................................................................................42 2. Simplicity ......................................................................................43 3. Suitability ......................................................................................43 4. Vividness .......................................................................................44 5. Suggestiveness ..............................................................................44 6. Effect of Technology ....................................................................45 vii D. DENOUNCING ISLAMIC MARTYR NOORDIN TOP .....................46 1. Plausibility ....................................................................................50 2. Simplicity ......................................................................................50 3. Suitability ......................................................................................50 4. Vividness .......................................................................................51 5. Suggestiveness ..............................................................................52 6. Effect of Technology ....................................................................52 E. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................53 IV. TESTING THE PRINCIPLES OF RUMOR DEFENSE: THE REALMS OF POLITICS, BUSINESS, AND WAR .........................................55