World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013 by Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt with Komei Hosokawa Steve Thomas Yukio Yamaguchi Julie Hazemann foreword Peter Bradford A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project Paris, London, Kyoto, July 2013 With the support of Artwork Anna Jeretic Fred & Alice Stanback The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013 By Mycle Schneider Independent Consultant, Paris, France Project Coordinator and Lead Author Antony Froggatt Independent Consultant, London, U.K. Lead Author With Komei Hosokawa Professor for Environmental and Social Research, Kyoto Seika University, Japan Contributing Author Steve Thomas Professor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University, U.K. Contributing Author Yukio Yamaguchi Co-director of the Citizen's Nuclear Information Center (CNIC), Tokyo, Japan Contributing Author Julie Hazemann Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris, France Documentary Research, Modeling and Graphic Design Foreword by Peter A. Bradford Paris, London, July 2013 A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013-V4 1 Acknowledgments The project coordinator wishes to thank in particular his colleague, fellow lead author and friend Antony Froggatt for his constant support and extraordinary reliability in this project, and his co- authors Steve Thomas, Komei Hosokawa and Yukio Yamaguchi for their creative special contributions to this report. A big thank you to Peter A. Bradford for his thoughtful foreword. The authors wish to thank Fred & Alice Stanback, Amory B. Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, Rebecca Harms, the Greens-EFA Group in the European Parliament, Arne Jungjohann, Rebecca Bertram, Heinrich Böll Foundation U.S., Sabine von Stockar, the Swiss Renewable Energy Foundation for their generous support for this project. A big thank you to John Corbett for his extensive research assistance on finances and to Philippe Rivière for his creative work on the website and his generous assistance at any time of the day. The report has greatly benefitted from partial or full proof-reading, editing suggestions and comments by Aileen Smith, Amory B. Lovins, Miles Goldstick, MV Ramana and Shaun Burnie. Thank you all. Special thanks to Anna Jeretic for making available the beautiful artwork and to Adélaïde Dubois- Taine for designing the cover page. Note This report contains a very large amount of factual and numerical data. While we do our utmost to verify and double-check, nobody is perfect. The authors are always grateful for corrections and suggestions of improvement. Lead Authors’ Contacts Mycle Schneider Antony Froggatt 45, allée des deux cèdres 53a Nevill Road 91210 Draveil (Paris) London N16 8SW France United Kingdom Phone: +33-1-69 83 23 79 Ph: +44-79 68 80 52 99 Email: [email protected] E: [email protected] The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013 © Mycle Schneider Consulting Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013 2 Table of Contents Foreword .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Executive Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................... 6 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 10 General Overview Worldwide .......................................................................................................... 11 Potential Newcomer Countries ......................................................................................................... 25 Construction Times ........................................................................................................................... 33 Construction Times of Past and Currently Operating Reactors ...................................................................... 33 Construction Times and Costs of Reactors Currently Under Construction .................................................... 34 The Economics of Nuclear Power – An Update .............................................................................. 34 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 34 The Characteristics of Nuclear Economics ...................................................................................................... 35 The U.S. Nuclear Power Program ................................................................................................................... 37 The U.K. Nuclear Program .............................................................................................................................. 41 European Union Policy .................................................................................................................................... 45 The Chinese Program ....................................................................................................................................... 46 Olkiluoto and Flamanville ............................................................................................................................... 48 Conclusions on Nuclear Economics ................................................................................................................ 51 Financial Markets and Nuclear Power ............................................................................................ 52 Fukushima – A Status Report .......................................................................................................... 61 Characteristics of the Fukushima Disaster ....................................................................................................... 61 Off-site Challenges: Evacuation, Decontamination ......................................................................................... 62 Current Status of Fukushima Daiichi 1–4 ........................................................................................................ 64 Wave or Shake? ............................................................................................................................................... 66 On-site Challenges: Water, Waste, Radiation ................................................................................................. 68 Summary and Prospects ................................................................................................................................... 71 Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy ............................................................................................. 73 Investment ........................................................................................................................................................ 73 Installed Capacity ............................................................................................................................................ 75 Electricity Generation ...................................................................................................................................... 76 Annexes ............................................................................................................................................... 84 Annex 1. Overview by Region and Country ................................................................................... 85 Africa ............................................................................................................................................................... 85 The Americas ................................................................................................................................................... 87 Asia .................................................................................................................................................................. 94 European Union (EU27) and Switzerland ..................................................................................................... 106 Former Soviet Union ..................................................................................................................................... 122 Annex 2: Reactor Construction Times 2003-2013 ........................................................................ 127 Annex 3: Definition of Credit Rating by the Main Agencies ....................................................... 128 Annex 4: About the Authors ........................................................................................................... 129 Annex 5: Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. 131 Annex 6. Status of Nuclear Power in the World (1 July 2013) .................................................... 135 Annex 7. Nuclear Reactors in the World Listed as “Under Construction” (1 July 2013) ......... 136 Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013 3 Foreword By Peter A. Bradford* Nuclear power requires obedience, not transparency. The gap between nuclear rhetoric and nuclear reality has been a fundamental impediment to wise energy policy decisions for half a century now. For various reasons in many nations, the nuclear industry cannot tell the truth about its progress, its promise or its perils. Its backers in government and in academia do