Regional Overview and Summary of the Results of the 2015 Household Economy Analysis Baseline Update Somali Region, Ethiopia Report Prepared by: Regional Overview: Tanya Boudreau Livelihood Zone Profiles: Tanya Boudreau, Jennifer Bush, & Abdifatah Ismael TABLE OF CONTENTS TEAM MEMBERS .................................................................................................................. iv INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 Background to the 2015 Household Economy Analysis Baseline Update .................................................... 1 Somali Region context ........................................................................................................... 2 Overview of geography and rainfall patterns ............................................................................................... 2 Market Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 3 The Livelihood Zones .................................................................................................................................... 5 HEA Baseline Results ............................................................................................................. 7 Reference Years ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Wealth Breakdown and Asset Information .................................................................................................. 8 Sources of Food............................................................................................................................................. 9 Sources of Cash Income .............................................................................................................................. 14 Expenditure Patterns .................................................................................................................................. 19 Total Income and Household Livelihood Protection Scores ....................................................................... 20 Hazards........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Response (Coping) Strategies ..................................................................................................................... 26 Implications for Program Planning ............................................................................................................. 28 Changes over the past ten years .......................................................................................... 30 Rainfall trends ............................................................................................................................................. 30 Changes in household herd sizes ................................................................................................................ 32 Changes in area cultivated and agricultural production ............................................................................. 33 Changes in market conditions ..................................................................................................................... 33 Future considerations ................................................................................................................................. 34 Annex 1. Population by Livelihood Zone .............................................................................. 35 Annex 2. The Household Economy Analysis Framework and Methodology ........................... 38 Uses of HEA Baselines and the Livelihood Profiles ..................................................................................... 38 a) An Introductory Guide to Food Security and Livelihood Patterns in the Five Livelihood Zones .... 38 b) Early Warning and Food Security Monitoring .............................................................................. 38 c) Policy Development and Advocacy................................................................................................... 39 d) Content of the Livelihood Zone Profiles ........................................................................................ 39 The Household Economy Approach & Field Methodology ......................................................................... 40 Annex 3. Asset Comparison over three HEA Baselines .......................................................... 45 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Average Annual Rainfall by Livelihood Zone, 10-year mean, RFE (2004/5 – 2013/14) ................. 2 Figure 2. Seasonal rainfall patterns .............................................................................................................. 3 Figure 3. Breakdown of rural population by livelihood zone cluster ............................................................ 6 Figure 4. Reference years for the HEA baseline ............................................................................................ 7 Figure 5. Average livestock numbers by wealth group and livelihood zone cluster .................................... 8 ii Figure 6. Average area cultivated by wealth group and livelihood zone cluster .......................................... 9 Figure 7. Source of Food - Pastoral Zones .................................................................................................. 10 Figure 8. Average number of camels - pastoral zones ................................................................................ 11 Figure 9. Sources of Food - Agropastoral Zones ......................................................................................... 11 Figure 10. Sources of Food - Farming Zones ............................................................................................... 12 Figure 11. Average Staple Grain Production - Agropastoral and Farming zones ........................................ 12 Figure 12. Sources of Food - average by livelihood zone cluster ................................................................ 13 Figure 13. Household annual milk production ............................................................................................ 14 Figure 14. Source of Cash - the Pastoral Zones ........................................................................................... 14 Figure 15. Sources of Cash - The Agropastoral Zones ................................................................................. 15 Figure 16. Sources of Cash - the Farming Zones ......................................................................................... 16 Figure 17. Sources of Cash - Average for the livelihood zone clusters ....................................................... 17 Figure 18. Annual cash income levels (average for wealth group) ............................................................. 19 Figure 19. Expenditure patterns by livelihood zone cluster ....................................................................... 19 Figure 20. An example of total income (GAP Livelihood Zone) .................................................................. 21 Figure 21. Annual total income - reference year ........................................................................................ 22 Figure 22. Total income vs the Livelihoods Protection Threshold .............................................................. 22 Figure 23. The Household Livelihoods Protection Score ............................................................................ 23 Figure 24. Household Livelihoods Protection Score - poor and better off households in the reference year ........................................................................................................................ 23 Figure 25. Comparison of HLPS to Total Income - Poor Households .......................................................... 24 Figure 26. Average rainfall anomalies over the last 16 years ..................................................................... 31 Figure 27. Average Annual Rainfall Anomaly, 10-year and 5-year average ................................................ 31 Figure 28. Select changes in household herd size in the last decade ......................................................... 32 iii TEAM MEMBERS OVERALL TEAM LEADER & FIELD COORDINATOR Abdifatah Ismael (Regional Aid Coordinator and Humanitarian Affairs Advisor to the president of Somali Regional State of Ethiopia) BASELINE TRAINING, ANALYSIS SUPPORT, & LIVELIHOOD IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET (LIAS) DEVELOPMENT The Baseline Training was led by Julius Holt (FEG) and Abdifatah Ismael The Baseline Analysis (post field-work) was led by Alexandra King (FEG) The LIASes were developed by Mark Lawrence of FEG FIELD TEAMS Afder Pastoral Degahbur Agropastoral Team Leader: Wossen Getachew, Consultant Team Leader: Huseen Warmahaye, DPPB Team Members: Mahamud Abdinur Sayid, DPPB Team Members: Ahmed Wali Huseen Haji, Consultant Mahamed Abdi Barah, DPPB Abdi Asiis Dahir Sulub, DPPB Abdi Mahamed Hasan,DPPB Mohamed Adan Yusuf, Private Mahamed Sheikh Basher,DPPB Mukhtar Huseen Ali, DPPB Kamaal Ibraahim, DPPB Nuur Shuraako, DPPB Dawa-Ganale Riverine Filtu Dolo Pastoral Team Leader: Wossen Getachew, Consultant Team Leader: Hassen Barud, DPPB Team Members: Mahamud Abdinur Sayid, DPPB Team