Status of Kelp Greenling (Hexagrammos decagrammus) along the Oregon Coast in 2015 Aaron M. Berger1 Linsey Arnold2 Brett T. Rodomsky3 1Northwest Fisheries Science Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2032 SE OSU Drive, Newport, OR 97365 2Oregon State University, Department of Fish and Wildlife, 104 Nash Hall, 2820 SW Campus Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 3Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2040 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365 November 17, 2015 Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................ 1 Stock........................................................................................................................... 1 Catches ...................................................................................................................... 1 Data and assessment ................................................................................................ 3 Stock biomass ........................................................................................................... 3 Recruitment ................................................................................................................ 7 Exploitation status ..................................................................................................... 8 Ecosystem considerations ..................................................................................... 10 Reference points...................................................................................................... 10 Management performance ...................................................................................... 11 Unresolved problems and major uncertainties ..................................................... 12 Forecast ................................................................................................................... 13 Decision table .......................................................................................................... 14 Research and data needs ........................................................................................ 16 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 18 1.1 Basic Information .......................................................................................... 18 1.2 Map................................................................................................................. 18 1.3 Life History .................................................................................................... 19 1.4 Ecosystem Considerations .......................................................................... 19 1.5 Fishery Information ....................................................................................... 20 1.6 Summary of Management History................................................................ 21 1.7 Management Performance ........................................................................... 22 2 Assessment ................................................................................................ 22 2.1 Data ................................................................................................................ 22 2.1.1 Fishery-Dependent Data: Commercial Landings and Discards ................ 22 2.1.2 Fishery-Dependent Data: Recreational Landings and Discards ............... 24 2.1.3 Fishery-Dependent Data: Oregon Commercial Logbook .......................... 26 2.1.4 Fishery-Dependent Data: Recreational Dockside Survey ......................... 27 2.1.5 Fishery-Dependent Data: Recreational Onboard Observer Surveys ........ 28 2.1.6 Fishery-Independent Data: sources considered, but not used in assessment ............................................................................................................ 29 2.1.7 Fishery-Dependent Data: sources considered, but not used in assessment 30 2.1.8 Biological Data: Length and age compositions ......................................... 30 2.1.9 Biological Data: Age structures ................................................................ 31 2.1.10 Biological Data: Ageing precision and bias ............................................... 32 2.1.11 Biological Data: Weight-Length ................................................................ 32 2.1.12 Biological Data: Maturity and Fecundity ................................................... 32 2.1.13 Biological Data: Natural Mortality ............................................................. 33 2.1.14 Biological Data: Sex ratios ....................................................................... 33 2.2 History of Modeling Approaches Used for this Stock ................................ 33 2.2.1 Previous assessments ............................................................................. 33 2.3 Response to the 2005 STAR Panel Recommendations .............................. 34 2.4 Model Description ......................................................................................... 35 2.4.1 Transition from 2005 to 2015 stock assessment ...................................... 35 2.4.2 Definition of fleets and areas .................................................................... 37 2.4.3 Summary of data for fleets and areas ...................................................... 37 i 2.4.4 Modeling software .................................................................................... 37 2.4.5 Data weighting ......................................................................................... 37 2.4.6 Priors ....................................................................................................... 37 2.4.7 General model specifications ................................................................... 38 2.4.8 Estimated and fixed parameters ............................................................... 38 2.5 Model Selection and Evaluation ................................................................... 39 2.5.1 Key assumptions and structural choices .................................................. 39 2.5.2 Alternative models explored ..................................................................... 40 2.5.3 Convergence ............................................................................................ 40 2.6 Response to STAR Panel Recommendations ............................................. 40 2.7 Base-Model(s) Results .................................................................................. 42 2.8 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses .......................................................... 43 2.8.1 Sensitivity analyses .................................................................................. 43 2.8.2 Retrospective analysis ............................................................................. 44 2.8.3 Likelihood profiles .................................................................................... 44 3 Reference Points ........................................................................................ 45 4 Harvest Projections and Decision Tables ................................................ 45 5 Regional Management Considerations .................................................... 46 6 Research Needs ......................................................................................... 46 7 Acknowledgments ...................................................................................... 48 8 Literature Cited ........................................................................................... 48 9 Tables .......................................................................................................... 54 10 Figures ........................................................................................................ 75 Appendix A. SS data file ................................................................................. 151 Appendix B. SS control file ............................................................................ 189 Appendix C. SS starter file ............................................................................. 194 Appendix D. SS forecast file .......................................................................... 195 Appendix E. Reef Delineation and Drift Selection Methodologies ............. 197 Appendix F. History of Oregon Regulations................................................. 199 Appendix G. Oregon Nearshore Commercial Fishery Public Input (2011- 2014) ................................................................................................................. 205 Appendix H. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Visual Surveys ...... 206 ii Executive Summary Stock This is the second stock assessment of the population status of Kelp Greenling (Hexagrammos decagrammus [Pallas, 1810]) along the Oregon coast (Figure 1). Kelp Greenling is endemic to nearshore rocky reef, kelp forest, and eelgrass habitats of the Northeast Pacific Ocean and ranges from southern California, north to the Alaskan Aleutian Islands, but is rarely found south of Point Conception, California. The first stock assessment of Kelp Greenling (Cope and MacCall, 2005) modeled a separate substock off the coast of California. However, there was insufficient population information (e.g., age, growth, natural mortality, abundance index) at the time for the California assessment