AU0221614 Sustainability in Australia, Past, Present and Future DR JOHN SUGAR Sligar and Associates Pty Ltd [email protected] SUMMARY Over the last 50 years Australia has generally maintained adequate energy supplies to its population in an increasingly efficient and sustainable manner. It has also been able to help sustain other economies in supplying energy resources of coal, gas and uranium. This provides 20% of Australia's export income, contributing to the quality of life experienced by Australians. Presently the reserve margin in the electricity power system is adequate and, with the exception of oil, ample local energy resources are available. Over the same period the doubling in energy generation efficiency has matched the population growth in NSW. The same contributions by technology and population can be expected over the next 50 years. The growth in demand has however increased by a factor of about five. Sensible demand management could reduce this to a more acceptable figure over the next 50 years as shown in two possible scenarios. This, coupled with ongoing energy exports will help sustain the quality of life in this economy. 1. INTRODUCTION 2. HISTORICAL EFFORTS AT SUSTAINABILITY This paper is concerned with sustainable energy in Australia. That is, the provision of adequate energy While the term sustainability has recently become now and in the future at an acceptable cost to popular Australia has been moving towards a society. sustainable future for many years. An example is given below of the initiatives in New South Wales, Sustainable means to be maintained at a certain rate beginning in 1950, continuing to the present 2001 or level. While the term sustainability has been and into the future to 2050. regularly redefined the actual process of transition towards sustainability has been going on in If we look at the power system in New South Wales Australia for many years. In fact sustainability is an in 1950's when the various organizations integral part of engineering in that it incorporates generating power were brought together as the improvement to plant and efficient operation of Electricity Commission of NSW the system plant. This uses resources more efficiently leaving capacity was about 800 MW for a population of more available for future generations. about 3m. The installed capacity per head was about 0.3 kW. There were power supply Electricity generators in Australia have a long deficiencies that took some years to overcome. history of improving plant efficiency ranging from specifying highly efficient power station plant and The power system was essentially a distributed then operating it near full load and efficiency. The energy system with many small generators located competitive energy market emerging in Australia close to their load in major population centres. The has been a key driver in installing even more sent out efficiencies of the larger coal-fired efficient power stations and seeking end use energy generators ranged from 9.7% to 24.5%. The small efficiency. number of diesel units had efficiencies of 27 to 33%. The overall sent out efficiency in NSW was Australia has abundant energy resources to cover 16% with unit load factors of 18 to 72%. These the transition to a higher level of sustainability. It figures are shown in Table 2. also has sufficient to assist other economies less Power in NSW has depended on the availability of fortunate with energy resources while contributing cheap coal and the lack of local economic gas or oil to sustaining domestic quality of life from export supplies. A policy of installing the largest proven income generated. units was pursued over the last 50 years with major improvements in efficiency. A nuclear initiative at Sustainability is seen as a process leading to a more Jervis Bay was abandoned at a change in sustainable situation. Full sustainability is seen as a government and could have resulted in less useful unattainable goal. dependence on fossil fuel from the 1970s onwards. 66 By 2000, or after 50 years, New South Wales has As part of a poEtical acceptance of the need for had mixed results from a transition towards sustainability there have been a number of sustainability -viewpoint. With respect to electricity government initiatives. generation the efficiency has doubled from 16% to about 35.5%, which is a very creditable outcome. In 3.1 Prime Ministers initiative 2000 a total of 21.4m. tonnes per annum of coal The Prime Minister Mr J Howard has provided for a were consumed. If there had not been such an target additional 2% renewables by 2010. This will effective move towards sustainability the quantity utilize biomass in the main with lesser contributions of coal required would have been more than double from solar and wind. All these initiatives will this amount. increase the level of energy sustainability. With respect to population there has been a 3.2 Water power resources doubling from 3m to 6m. This has had an adverse The Snowy River scheme was instituted as an effect on sustainability. The effect is however agricultural water supply system to be paid for from lessening with a rate of population growth of 1.3%, electricity generation charges. This has a low comparable with the world average. The installed capacity factor of about 3%. Government has capacity per head was about 2 kW. These figures reduced the overall capacity of the system by 10% are shown in Table 2. and the proposed redirection of the waters from the system will reduce its potential output even further In addition to local energy use Australia has in the coming years. become a world-class exporter of energy resources Similarly, the water reserves of Tasmania have and energy rich materials, such as aluminium. been utilized except for otherwise sensitive These amount to about 20 % of Australia's exports environmental areas. If the government is serious and therefore contribute heavily to the quality of about sustainability it will need to exploit the life experienced by all Australians and must be remaining water reserves to counteract the losses taken into account as a contribution towards overall from the Snowy system. sustainability. 3.3 Distributed generation 3. PRESENT SUSTAINABILITY ACTIVITIES As stated above Australia had been through one cycle of distributed generation over the last 50 Continuing to use NSW as an example the years, moving to larger more efficient units. population is about 6m. The installed capacity is Improvement in the efficiency of smaller units has about 12,000 MW and the annual personal made this technology more likely for expansion in a consumption for residential is about 5,000 kWh. A competitive market. It will cater for the additional far greater interest in sustainability has focussed load in many areas. attention on this aspect of Australia's future. 3.4 Large units ageing Table 1 shows the energy resources available now Most units generating now are large and will need for Australia. The latest energy survey by the replacement as large units. Small distributed Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for 1997-8 generators are not in a position to replace these. showed energy production at 12,000 PJ with energy exported at 8,800 PJ and industrial domestic use 3.5 Energy exports including electricity supply at 3,200 PJ. Australia has been fortunate in that it has sufficient energy reserves of coal, gas and uranium to be able Table 1. Australian energy resources in 1998 to assist other economies with energy without jeopardising its own potential for sustainability. Black coal 1.3m PJ This also has the added effect of contributing Brown coal 0.4m PJ heavily to the quality of life of Australians. The Crude oil 8.8k PJ export of energy related material (coal, petroleum, Natural gas 53k PJ gas and uranium) was worth about $15,700m in Condensate 7.1kPJ 1997-8 and represented 18% of all exports. This LPG 4.5k PJ was equivalent to about $780 per head of Uranium 0.3m PJ population in that year. Adding aluminium to this at $7,100m in 1999 provides about $1100 per head to It can be seen that these are more than adequate to contribute to the quality of life of the population. sustain the energy needs of Australia and contribute to sustaining the quality of life in Australia by exporting to less energy wealthy economies. 67 4. FUTURE ENfTTIATTVES FOR market needing smaller increments of power SUSTAINABILITY commensurate with a 2% long-term growth rate. This technology is seen to cover the increase in load Future sustainability depends on population growth, predicted for the foreseeable future. the increase in energy demand, the management of demand and the technology for replacement of large 4.4 Replacement generation units. It must be remembered that the bulk of Australia's power comes from a set of large units installed If the population growth rate continues as at present between 1960 and 2000. While these units are well there will be about 12m in NSW in 2050. While built and represent reliable resources the earlier efficiency has doubled from 16 to 35% in the last units have undergone refurbishment and will need 50 years it is reasonable to expect it will again replacement in the foreseeable future. The double to 70% by 2050. Per head consumption remainder will follow these units with say the could go to 7,000 kWh per person. This represents a Milmerran units needing to consider refurbishment business as usual case. in 2030 for operation to 2050. If however the population can be limited by a These units represent a large proportion of the variety of actions to say 10m., the generation Australian interconnected system that will not be efficiency improved from 35 to 80 % and demand satisfactorily replaced by distributed generation.