LED Lamp Quality Codes and Standards Enhancement (CASE) Initiative For PY 2013: Title 20 Standards Development Analysis of Standards Proposals for LED Replacement Lamp Quality Docket # 12 – AAER-2B California Energy Commission DOCKETED 12-AAER-2B TN 71758 JUL 30 2013 July 29, 2013 Prepared for: PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC SAN DIEGO GAS AND COMPANY ELECTRIC Prepared by: MIKE MCGARAGHAN, ENERGY SOLUTIONS DANIEL YOUNG, ENERGY SOLUTIONS FOREST KASER, ENERGY SOLUTIONS JESSICA CLARK, ENERGY SOLUTIONS This report was prepared by the California Statewide Utility Codes and Standards Program and funded by the California utility customers under the auspices of the California Public Utilities Commission. Copyright 2013 Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Diego Gas & Electric. All rights reserved, except that this document may be used, copied, and distributed without modification. Neither PG&E, SDG&E, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, express or implied; or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any data, information, method, product, policy or process disclosed in this document; or represents that its use will not infringe any privately-owned rights including, but not limited to, patents, trademarks or copyrights. Acknowledgements The CASE Team would like to thank the California Lighting Technology Center (CLTC), in particular Dr. Michael Siminovitch, Dr. Konstantinos Papamichael, Kyle Sills, Keith Graeber, and Nicole Graeber, for their expertise and contributions to this CASE development process. The CLTC conducted extensive product testing that was invaluable to the CASE team in developing this standards proposal. The CASE Team would also like to thank the Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program (CLASP), especially Chris Wold, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), in particular Noah Horowitz, and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (particularly Michael Poplawski) for their contributions to the development of this standards proposal. Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 5 2 OVERVIEW & CONTEXT ............................................................................................... 6 2.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Consumer Preference and CFL Performance .............................................................................. 9 2.1.2 Consumer Preference and LED Lamp Performance .................................................................... 10 2.2 The LED Opportunity .......................................................................................... 12 3 PRODUCT DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................... 14 3.1 History ............................................................................................................ 14 3.2 Technology ....................................................................................................... 15 3.3 Lamp Types ....................................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 General Service and Decorative Lamps (Omni-directional Lamps) ................................................. 16 3.3.2 Directional Lamps .......................................................................................................... 17 3.4 Base Types ........................................................................................................ 17 4 MANUFACTURING AND MARKET CHANNEL OVERVIEW ....................................... 18 4.1 Manufacturing Overview ....................................................................................... 18 4.2 Supply Chain ..................................................................................................... 19 5 ENERGY USAGE AND PRODUCT QUALITY ............................................................... 20 5.1 Test Methods ..................................................................................................... 20 5.1.1 Current Test Methods ...................................................................................................... 20 5.1.2 Proposed Test Methods ..................................................................................................... 20 5.2 Quality & Performance Attributes of LED Replacement Lamps ......................................... 21 5.2.1 Light Output ................................................................................................................ 21 5.2.2 Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) ................................................................................... 26 5.2.3 Color Consistency........................................................................................................... 29 5.2.4 Color Rendering (Color Quality/Accuracy) ........................................................................... 33 5.2.5 Efficacy ...................................................................................................................... 37 5.2.6 Interaction of CRI and Efficacy .......................................................................................... 40 5.2.7 Light Distribution .......................................................................................................... 44 5.2.8 Dimming ..................................................................................................................... 46 5.2.9 Flicker ........................................................................................................................ 52 5.2.10 Audible Noise ............................................................................................................... 57 5.2.11 Power Factor ................................................................................................................ 58 5.2.12 Lifetime / Warranty / Lumen Maintenance .......................................................................... 59 5.2.13 Start Time, Warm-up Time .............................................................................................. 59 5.3 Product Performance for Qualifying and Non-Qualifying Products .................................... 60 5.4 Per Unit Energy Savings ........................................................................................ 63 5.4.1 Increased Efficacy .......................................................................................................... 63 5.4.2 Dimmability ................................................................................................................ 64 6 MARKET SATURATION & SALES ............................................................................... 67 6.1 Current Market Situation ...................................................................................... 67 6.1.1 Total Shipments and Stock ............................................................................................... 67 6.2 Future Market Adoption of LED Lamps ..................................................................... 67 7 SAVINGS POTENTIAL.................................................................................................. 71 7.1 Statewide California Energy Savings .......................................................................... 71 7.1.1 First Order Statewide California Energy Savings ..................................................................... 71 7.1.2 Second Order Statewide California Energy Savings .................................................................. 72 7.2 State or Local Government Costs and Savings .............................................................. 74 8 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS................................................................................................ 74 8.1 Non-Standards Case LED Lamp Cost Forecasts ............................................................ 74 8.2 Analysis of the Incremental Cost of LED Lamp Quality ................................................... 77 8.2.1 Overview of Incremental Cost of Quality Analysis .................................................................... 77 8.2.2 Results of Incremental Cost of Quality Analysis ....................................................................... 78 8.2.3 Next Steps for Cost of Quality Analysis ................................................................................ 81 8.3 Standards Case LED Lamp Incremental Cost Forecasts ................................................... 81 8.4 Design Life ........................................................................................................ 82 8.5 Lifecycle Cost / Net Benefit ................................................................................... 82 9 ACCEPTANCE ISSUES .................................................................................................. 84 9.1 Existing Standards and Specifications ......................................................................... 84 9.1.1 Voluntary LED Quality Specifications ................................................................................. 84 9.1.2 Mandatory LED Quality Standards ..................................................................................... 85 9.1.3 European Union Standards Development (Ecodesign) Process and Results ....................................... 85 9.1.4 Mexico Standards