WORKING PAPER REDD+ at the crossroads Choices and tradeoffs for 2015–2020 in Laos Michael B. Dwyer Micah Ingalls Working Paper 179 REDD+ at the crossroads Choices and tradeoffs for 2015–2020 in Laos Michael B. Dwyer Center for International Forestry Research Micah Ingalls Cornell University Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) Working Paper 179 © 2015 Center for International Forestry Research Content in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0), http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ISBN 978-602-1504-82-6 DOI: 10.17528/cifor/005536 Dwyer MB and Ingalls M. 2015. REDD+ at the crossroads: Choices and tradeoffs for 2015–2020 in Laos. Working Paper 179. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia. Photo by Michael B. Dwyer CIFOR Jl. CIFOR, Situ Gede Bogor Barat 16115 Indonesia T +62 (251) 8622-622 F +62 (251) 8622-100 E [email protected] cifor.org We would like to thank all donors who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Fund. For a list of Fund donors please see: https://www.cgiarfund.org/FundDonors Any views expressed in this paper are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of CIFOR, the editors, the authors’ institutions, or the financial sponsors. Table of contents Acknowledgments v Executive summary vi ບົດສະຫລຸບຫຍໍ້ vii 1 Introduction 1 2 REDD+ in Laos: The project landscape 4 3 “Forget all these maps”: A genealogy of the Lao political forest 8 4 Choices and tradeoffs (i): Location and drivers selection 13 4.1 Focusing on smallholders: Driver engagement by project 13 4.2 Selective engagement: The case of Xe Pian 15 4.3 Relocating and rescaling: The case of CliPAD 17 5 Choices and tradeoffs (ii): patialS transparency of development 20 6 Choices and tradeoffs (iii): ropertyP formalization 25 6.1 Zoning and titling: A genealogy of rural land tenure in Laos 26 6.2 REDD and land tenure: An open question 26 7 Conclusions and recommendations 28 8 References 34 Annexes 39 1 Lao National Assembly Cabinet Office Notice 273, 21 August 2014 39 2 Titling coverage in Laos before October 2008 40 List of figures and tables Figures 1. REDD+ timeline in Laos. 5 2. REDD+ projects in Laos, 2009-2014. 6 3. Development of Laos’s political forest. 8 4. Key events since 1990. 9 5. Published estimates of total land concession numbers for Laos. 11 6. Schematic of Xe Pian REDD project geography. 16 Table 1. Drivers identified and engaged by particular projects in Laos. 14 v Acknowledgments Numerous key informants contributed to the ມີຫລາຍຄົນທີ່ໄດ້ປະກອບສ່ວນເຂົ້າໃນການຄົ້ນຄ research and analysis presented below; we thank ວ້າ ແລະ ວິເຄາະຂໍ້ມູນ ສຳລັບບົດຄົ້ນຄວ້ານີ້; ພວ you all. We also thank Dr. Krystof Obidzinski and ກເຮົາຂໍສະແດງຄວາມຂອບໃນມາຍັງທຸກຄົນ, Dr. Steve Lawry at CIFOR for helping sharpen the ໂດຍສະເພາະແມ່ນ ພວກເຮົາຂໍຂອບໃຈມາຍັງ analysis and presentation, and Dr. Thoumthone ດຣ. Krystof Obidzinski ແລະ ດຣ. Steve Lawry Vongvisouk at the National University of Laos for his ຈາກ CIFOR ທີ່ໄດ້ຊ່ວຍເຮັດໃຫ້ກາວິເຄາະຂໍ້ມູນ translation of the Executive Summary. ແລະ ການນຳສະເໜີບົກຄົ້ນຄວ້ານີ້ ສົມບູນຂຶ້ນ ແລະ ຂໍຂອບໃຈ ມາຍັງ ດຣ. ທຸມທອນ ວົງວີສຸກ ຈາກມະຫາວິທະຍາໄລແຫ່ງຊາດ ທີ່ຊ່ວຍແປບົດສະຫລຸບຫ ຍໍ້ຈາກພາສາອັງກິດເປັນພາສາລາວ vi Executive summary This study examines key choices and tradeoffs that areas, they have created a pair of challenges that confront current efforts to reduce emissions from REDD practitioners must currently confront. The deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) in first is lost opportunity. By not engaging industrial Laos. Drawing on key informant interviews and drivers of forest loss, REDD misses an important document analysis conducted between late 2013 and chance to engage with high-level economic decision late 2014, it builds on recent work by other scholars making; this has implications not only for climate on REDD’s policy landscape and wider sociopolitical mitigation, but more importantly for current efforts context in Laos, but focuses on the landscape of to make Laos’s current trajectory of natural resource- projects as a window into policy-level debates. Policy intensive development socially, environmentally and has long been an uncertain arena in Laos, both for economically more sustainable. The second challenge REDD and elsewhere; looking at the project scale is more immediate. Due to the political-economic helps provide insight into how the current balance of circumstances under which forest loss occurs, there is clarity and ambiguity, both domestically and globally, a significant gap between loss that is planned and loss are being addressed by Laos’s REDD practitioners. that can be accounted for under REDD’s “national We focus on three sets of choices and tradeoffs: (1) circumstance” allowances for planned deforestation. those involving driver engagement – namely, the This means that REDD’s positive impacts on choices and tradeoffs that surround which drivers mitigating forest loss, to the extent that they occur, of deforestation and degradation REDD projects may be swamped by planned but unaccountable attempt to mitigate; (2) choices and tradeoffs forest loss, and thus difficult or impossible to verify. involving spatial transparency and development Thinking bigger on issues from driver engagement planning, which are relevant to many spheres of to spatial planning and concession regulation to land governance but have special application to REDD’s tenure and rural livelihood possibilities thus presents process of impact measurement (or reference levels); not only a series of opportunities, but a series and (3) choices and tradeoffs related to property of imperatives. formalization, which are also relevant well beyond REDD, but impact REDD efforts through their Following two overview sections on the current state influence on forest loss related to insecure livelihoods of REDD efforts in Laos, we present three sections at the farm-forest edge. on the three sets of choices and tradeoffs outlined above. The conclusion then discusses ways in which We argue, in short, that REDD is at a crossroads in industrial drivers of forest loss could be usefully Laos, and needs to “think bigger” – both to remain engaged. We focus on the significant potential for relevant, and even to survive. To date, REDD shared analysis and policy action that exists between projects have made relatively conservative choices REDD’s existing challenges and current government on driver engagement, focusing on smallholder- efforts to make development – and particularly related drivers like shifting cultivation and small-scale investment – more effective from an economic agricultural expansion, to the exclusion of drivers perspective. While such an approach must include like agro-industrial concessions, mining concessions social and environmental considerations, it privileges and energy and transportation infrastructure. the economic arena as one where opportunities exist While these choices have been based on calculated on issues that have, thus far, been REDD’s greatest decisions made in the context of REDD project stumbling blocks. vii ບດົ ສະຫບົດສະຫລຸບຫຍໍ້ລບຸ ຫຍ 㛉 ຕິດພນກັ ບມາດຕາການັ ໃນການດາເນ ນວຽກງານ REDD ບດົ ສະຫລບຸ ຫຍ 㛉 (ຫລ ື ເສັຕ㛉ນທຽບຖານິດພນກັ ບມາດຕາການັ (reference levels)ໃນການດ); (3)າເນ ທາງເລນວຽກງານ ອກື REDD ບດຄົ ນຄວົ㛉 າ㛉 ນ 훉 ແມນໄດ່ ສ㛉 ກສາຶ ທາງເລອກື (choices) ແລະ ແລະ ການ(ຫລເລ ື ອກໄດື ເສັ㛉ນທຽບຖານເລ㛉 ອກເສຍື (reference ສາລ ບການຖັ levels)ຄອງຊື ); (3)ບສັ ທາງເລນິ ອກື ການເລອກໄດື ບດຄົ ນຄວເລ㛉ົ㛉 ອກເສຍື າ㛉 ນ 훉 ແມ (tradນໄດ່ eoffສ㛉 ກສາຶ s) ສ ຳລ ທາງເລບັ ການອກື ຈດຕັ (choices)ງັ㛉 ປະ ແລະ ທ່ ເປັນທາງການແລະ ການ, ເຊ່ເລງການຈິ ອກໄດື ດຕັ ເລ㛉 ງປະຕັ㛉ອກເສຍື ິບດັ ວຽກງານສາລ ບການຖັ REDDຄອງຊື ບສັ ນິ ຕິບດກັ ດຈະກິ ການເລາ ອກໄດື ເພ່ ືອຫລຸດຜເລ㛉 ອກເສຍື ອນການປ່ (trad່ອຍອາຍພeoffs) ສຳລ ິດບ ັ ການຈາກຈດຕັ ງັ㛉 ປະ ມຜ ນກະທົ ທບ່ົ ເປ ຕັນທາງການ່ ອດຕິ ພິ ນົ ,ທ ່ ເຮເຊ່ັດໃຫງການຈິ 㛉ປ່າໄມດຕັ 㛉ງປະຕັ㛉ຖກທື າລາຍິບ ດັ ວຽກງານ ເຊ່ງິ REDD ທາລາຍປ ຕ່າໄມິບດກັ 㛉 ດຈະກິ ແລະາ ເພການເຮ່ ືອຫລຸດຜັດໃຫອນການປ່ 㛉ປ່າໄມເສ㛉 ່ອຍອາຍພ່ອມໂຊມື ິດ ຈາກ ເປັນປະເດມ່ ັນຜ ນກະທົ ທ່ ກຽວຂ່ ບົ ອງກຕ㛉 ່ ອດຕິ ບຄວາມບັ ພິ ນົ ທ່ ເຮ່ ໝັດໃຫນຄັ㛉 ງທາງດົ㛉ປ່າໄມ 㛉 ານຖ㛉 ກທື ການາລາຍ ເຊ່ງິ (REDD) ຢທ່ໃນ າລາຍປ ສປປ່າໄມ ລາວ 㛉 . ພວກເຮແລະ ົາໄດການເຮສ㛉 າພາດພາກສ ັດໃຫ㛉ປ່າໄມວນ່ ເສ㛉 ່ອມໂຊມື ດາລ ງຊົ ວ ເປດິ ັນປະເດຂອງປະຊາຊ່ ັນ ທ່ ກນົຽວຂ່ ທ່ ອາໄສຊອງກ㛉 ບຄວາມບັ ບພະຍາກອນປັ ່ ໝນຄັ㛉 ງທາງດົ ່າໄມ 㛉 ານ㛉 ການ ທ່ ກຽວຂ່ ອງ㛉 (REDD ແລະ) ຢ ່ໃນ ວ ເຄາະບິ ສປປ ລາວນດາເອກະສານຕັ . ພວກເຮົາໄດາງໆ່ ສ㛉 າພາດພາກສ ໃນ ວນ່ ເປັນພື㛉ນຖານການດດາລ ງຊົ ວ ດິ າລ ຂອງງຊົ ວ ປະຊາຊດິ . ນົ ທ່ ອາໄສຊບພະຍາກອນປັ ່າໄມ 㛉 ຊວງ່ ທ㛉າຍປທ່ ກຽວຂ່ 2013ອງ㛉 ຫາແລະ ທ㛉າຍ ວປເຄາະບິ 2014,ນດາເອກະສານຕັ ເຊ່ງໃນນິ ນັ㛉 ໄດມ㛉າງໆ່ ໃນ ເປັນພື㛉ນຖານການດາລ ງຊົ ວ ດິ . ພວກເຮົາໄດຕງຂັ㛉 ສ㛉 ນທະນາວົ າ ວຽກງານ REDD ໃນ ສປປ ການລວບລວມຊວງ່ ເນທ㛉າຍປອໃນຂອງບື㛉 2013 ດຄຫາົ ນຄວົ㛉 ທ㛉າຍາ㛉 ປທ ່ ໄດ2014ເຮ㛉 ,ັດການສ ເຊ່ງໃນນິ ກຶ ນັ㛉 ໄດມ㛉 㛉 ່ ລາວ ປຽບເໝພວກເຮືອນກົາໄດບເສັ ຕ㛉 ງຂັ㛉 ັ㛉ນທາງສ ສ㛉 ນທະນາວົ ່ ແຍກ າ່ ແລະວຽກງານ ພວກເຮ REDDົາຈະ ໃນ ສປປ ສາ ໃນໄລຍະຜການລວບລວມານມາ່ ເນໂດຍສະເພາະແມອໃນຂອງບື㛉 ດຄົ ນຄວົ㛉 ນ່ າ㛉 ບທນດາບັ ່ ໄດເຮ㛉 ດົັດການສກຶ ຕອງໄດຄລາວດໃນປະເດິ ປຽບເໝ່ ັນທືອນກ່ ກວາງກວບເສັ ັ㛉ນທາງສາເກ່ າົ ່ເຊແຍກ ່ງທິ ງສອງຂັ ແລະ ພວກເຮ ຄ㛉 ດິ ົາຈະ ຄນຄວົ㛉 າ㛉 ສາທ່ ມ ເນ ໃນໄລຍະຜອໃນື㛉 ກວມເອານມາ່ ົານະໂຍບາຍ ໂດຍສະເພາະແມ ທ່ ກຽວ່ ຂອງກ㛉 ນ່ ບັບ ນດາບັ ດົ 㛉 㛉 㛉 ່ ນ 㛉 ກ່ເພ ່ ຕືອເຮອງໄ㛉 ັດໃຫດຄ㛉 ວຽກງານດໃນປະເດິ ່ ັນທREDD່ ກວ າງກວ㛉 ສາມາດາເກ່ ່ຍາົ ນຍື ເຊງຢົ ່ງທິ ໄດ ງສອງຂັ . ຄ㛉 ດິ ວຽກງານຄ REDDນຄວົ㛉 າ㛉 ແລະທ່ ມເນ ອໃນສື㛉 ງຄັ ມວົ ກວມເອທະຍາການເມິ ົານະໂຍບາຍອງື (socioທ່ ກຽວຂ່ - ອງກ㛉 ບັ 㛉 ່ 㛉 ປດຈຸບັ ນັ ນນ 훉 㛉 ໂຄງການກ່ເພ ່ ືອເຮ ັດໃຫREDD㛉ວຽກງານ ຍງເປັ REDDັນທາງເລ ສາມາດອກໃນເຊື ຍນຍືງ ງຢົ ່ໄດ .㛉 political ວຽcontexts)ກງານ REDDຢ່ໃນ ສປປແລະ ສລາວງຄັ ມວົ. ໃນບທະຍາການເມິ ດຄົ ນຄວົ㛉 ານ㛉 ອງື 㛉 (socio- ອະນຸລກັ ປດຈຸບັເຊ່ງມິ ນັ ຈຸດມຸ ນ 훉 ໂຄງການງໝາຍ ເພREDD່ ືອຫລຸດຜ ຍອນສາເຫດຂອງງເປັ