Regime Elites and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: A Comparative Analysis of the Tunisian and Egyptian Uprisings Ian Kelly BA, MA School of Law and Government, Dublin City University Supervisors: Prof. Iain McMenamin and Prof. Francesco Cavatorta (Université Laval) June 2016 Dissertation Submitted for the award of PhD to Dublin City University Declaration I hereby certify that this material, which I now submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of PhD is entirely my own work, and that I have exercised reasonable care to ensure that the work is original, and does not to the best of my knowledge breach any law of copyright, and has not been taken from the work of others saw and to the extent that such work has been cited and acknowledged within the text of my work. Signed: __________ (Candidate). ID No:__________ Date:___________ i Table of Contents Declaration .......................................................................................................................i Table of Contents............................................................................................................ii List of Figures ................................................................................................................. v List of Tables..................................................................................................................vi List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................vii Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................viii Abstract ........................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1 – Regime Change in the Middle East and North Africa: Moving Beyond Immediate Explanations ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Structural Dimension of Regime Change ................................................... 2 1.3 Popular Mobilisation and Regime Change....................................................... 10 1.4 The Importance of Internal Factors: Bringing in the Elite ............................ 16 1.5 Conclusion: Mapping the Road Ahead............................................................. 17 Chapter 2 – The Theory: Elites and Regime Change in the Middle East and North Africa ............................................................................................................................. 19 2.1 Introduction......................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Authoritarian Resilience and Regime Change in the Middle East and North Africa ......................................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Theorising the Elite in the Middle East and North Africa.............................. 33 2.4 The Theoretical Framework.............................................................................. 42 2.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 3 – The Research Design: Explaining Regime Change in Authoritarian Systems........................................................................................................................... 50 3.1 Introduction......................................................................................................... 50 3.2 The Research Question....................................................................................... 50 3.3 The Theoretical Framework: Explaining Regime Change and Articulating Elite Interests in the Presidential Republics .......................................................... 51 3.3.1 The Presidential Republics of the MENA ..................................................... 52 3.3.2 The Military Cadre: The Armed Forces ........................................................ 55 3.3.3 The Single-Party Cadre: The Ruling Parties ................................................. 58 3.3.4 The Personalist Cadre: The Presidential Family, The Cronies, and The Security Services .................................................................................................... 61 3.3.5 The Time Period ............................................................................................ 64 3.4 The Variables ...................................................................................................... 65 3.4.1 The Dependent Variable: Regime Change .................................................... 65 3.4.2 Elite Perceptions and Interpersonal Ties ....................................................... 67 3.4.3 Material Patronage......................................................................................... 70 3.4.5 International Support ..................................................................................... 74 3.5 The Comparative Approach and Case Selection ............................................. 76 3.5.1 The Comparative Approach........................................................................... 76 3.5.2 The Countries Selected for Examination....................................................... 78 3.6.1 The Methodology: The Analytic Narrative ................................................... 82 3.6.2 The Data......................................................................................................... 84 3.7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 90 ii Chapter 4 – Endogenous Interest Realisation within the Tunisian Ruling Coalition: The Narrowing of the Regime ..................................................................................... 92 4.1 The Tunisian Uprising........................................................................................ 92 4.2 The Ruling Coalition and Political Life in Ben Ali’s Tunisia ......................... 97 4.3 Elite Perceptions and Interpersonal Ties: The Increasing Personalisation of the Ben Ali Regime ................................................................................................. 101 4.3.1 The RCD: The Decline of the Party and the Rise of the Technocrats......... 102 4.3.2 The Personalist Cadre (1): ‘The Family’ ..................................................... 106 4.3.3 The Personalist Cadre (2): The Ministry of Interior.................................... 111 4.3.4 The Military Cadre: Isolation and Exclusion............................................... 115 4.4 The Distribution of Material Resources in Ben Ali’s Tunisia ...................... 118 4.4.1 The RCD: Distributing Opportunity............................................................ 118 4.4.2 The Family: Tunisia Incorporated ............................................................... 121 4.4.3 The MOI: Privileges and Impunity.............................................................. 125 4.4.4 The Military................................................................................................. 128 4.5 Conclusion: Erosion from Within ................................................................... 130 Chapter 5 – Exogenous Interest Realisation within the Tunisian Ruling Coalition ...................................................................................................................................... 131 5.1 Introduction....................................................................................................... 131 5.2 Popular Legitimation: The Myth of Tunisia’s Economic Miracle............... 131 5.2.1 Poverty......................................................................................................... 134 5.2.2 The Unemployment Crisis........................................................................... 135 5.2.3 Corruption.................................................................................................... 137 5.2.4 The Tunisian Economic Miracle: The Lost Legitimacy of the Ben Ali Regime.................................................................................................................. 139 5.3 International Support....................................................................................... 146 5.3.1 Tunisia and France: Opportunistic International Support ........................... 147 5.3.2 Tunisia and the EU: The Primacy of Stability (1) ....................................... 153 5.3.3 Tunisia and the United States: The Stability Syndrome.............................. 156 5.4 Conclusion: The Impact of Exogenous Factors ............................................. 160 Chapter 6 – Endogenous Interest Realisation within the Egyptian Ruling Coalition: A Fragmented Regime.............................................................................. 163 6.1 The Egyptian Uprising ..................................................................................... 163 6.2 The Ruling Coalition and Political Life in Mubarak’s Egypt ...................... 167 6.3 Elites Perceptions and Interpersonal Ties: The Succession Question and the Decline of the Generals........................................................................................... 173 6.3.1 The Single-Party