Goldmedia Mobile Life Report 2012 Mobile Life in the 21st century Status quo and outlook Supported by BITKOM Berlin, October 2008 Goldmedia GmbH Media Consulting & Research Dr. Klaus Goldhammer, Dr. André Wiegand Daniela Becker, Michael Schmid Oranienburger Str. 27, 10117 Berlin, Germany Tel. +49 30-246 266-0, Fax +49 30-246 266-66 Klaus.Goldhammer[at]Goldmedia.de Andre.Wiegand[at]Goldmedia.de Daniela.Becker[at]Goldmedia.de Michael.Schmid[at]Goldmedia.de All rights belong to their respective owners. Goldmedia has no intention to violate any rights. If you feel we did so, please contact us. Goldmedia-Report “Mobile Life 2012“ Content 1. Executive Summary “Mobile Life 2012“ 2. Overview: “Mobile Life“ 3. Framework Conditions for “Mobile Life“ 3.1 Technical Conditions: Digital Laws of Information Technology 3.2 Economic Parameters: Mobile Market in Germany 3.3 Market Developments: End-User Devices 4. Customer Research and Customer Perspective - Usage Habits in Germany 5. Services and Markets for “Mobile Life“ 5.1 Mobile Entertainment 5.2 Mobile Internet 5.3 Mobile Advertising & Marketing 5.4 Mobile Commerce, Payment and Ticketing 5.5 Mobile Navigation and Location Based Services 6. Benchmark: Experiences in Japan, South Korea and Italy 7. Forecasts for ”Mobile Life“ 8. Outlook and Theses Supported by 2 1. Executive Summary: “Mobile Life 2012“ Supported by 3 1. Executive Summary: “Mobile Life 2012“ Mobile phones are part of the everyday life! Importance of mobile handsets in Germany 2008 Online survey “I agree completely / I substantially agree with the following statements:“ Almost half of respon- 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% dents cannot imagine a life without their mobile I cannot imagine a life without my mobile 43.2% phone. phone, ¼ feel “naked“ without their handset. I feel naked/incomplete without my mobile 26.0% phone. One quarter already re- placed different devices My mobile phone already replaced other devices such as MP3-players, 23.3% (e.g. MP3-player, camera, notepad, pen, etc.) cameras, etc. by mobile phones. With mobile phones I organise my entire private 15.6% life. Only ~10% use mobile handsets to organise their Add-ons (such as camera, MP3-player, organiser, etc.) are more important for me than voice 13.0% private and business life! telephony. With mobile phones I organise my business life. 10.6% Conclusion Mobile phones are o I save all my important personal data on my the N 4 medium in 10.6% mobile phone. Germany right after Source: Goldmedia Online Survey 2008, n=296 (18-35 years, DE) Internet, PC and TV. Supported by 4 1. Executive Summary: “Mobile Life 2012“ Communication habits and social behaviour has changed! Communication environment change Impacts on social behaviour Rise of new business ideas such as “Fake-It”: Being “always on“ gives users the feeling of “being “With Fake-It, now you can make your phone receive important calls from your wife or your in demand“ and “needed“ boss (shown as Caller ID), when you need an excuse to leave a boring meeting.” Source: www.clickapps.com/moreinfo.htm?pid=15835&section=S60V3 Social respect and appropriateness are declining: Talking by phone or listening to Artificial creation of music in public transport, checking mails “public communication over smartphone in meetings or even spaces“ helps people to play answering “urgent calls“ during a romantic down insecurity or social candlelit dinner is becoming more and isolation: Every 4th more normal. confessed to having already “Acoustic environmental pollution”: 69% simulated a telephone call!* annoyed by people talking on their phone *Source: James E. Katz „Mobile Kommunikation und die Transformation in public, 63% bothered by ringtones!* des Alltagslebens: Die nächste Phase in der Mobiltelefon-Forschung. In: Glotz/Bertschi/Locke (Hrsg.): Daumenkultur. Source: Survey by Aris for BITKOM 2008, n=1,001 (14+ years in DE) Supported by 5 Goldmedia-Report “Mobile Life 2012“ Content 1. Executive Summary “Mobile Life 2012“ 2. Overview: “Mobile Life“ 3. Framework Conditions for “Mobile Life“ 3.1 Technical Conditions: Digital Laws of Information Technology 3.2 Economic Parameters: Mobile Market in Germany 3.3 Market Developments: End-User Devices 4. Customer Research and Customer Perspective - Usage Habits in Germany 5. Services and Markets for “Mobile Life“ 5.1 Mobile Entertainment 5.2 Mobile Internet 5.3 Mobile Advertising & Marketing 5.4 Mobile Commerce, Payment and Ticketing 5.5 Mobile Navigation and Location Based Services 6. Benchmark: Experiences in Japan, South Korea and Italy 7. Forecasts for ”Mobile Life“ 8. Outlook and Theses Supported by 6 2. Overview: “Mobile Life“ Mobile Life encompasses all mobile B2C services & applications! Services, features and applications Status quo & outlook Information services Communication services Constant development and (push services e.g. news over (SMS/MMS, e-mail, (video) convergence of mobile features SMS/MMS, web browser, telephony, VoIP, instant and services mobile search etc.) messaging, chat etc.) Traditional services (such as SMS and voice telephony) Multimedia Transaction services (MP3-player, (mobile commerce, could be cannibalised by new videoplayer, photo mobile payment, features and applications (such camera, radio, mobile ticketing) as mobile instant messaging or mobile TV, etc.) Voice2Text) Special Applications Voice telephony still important, Personal Assistant (barcode scanner, (address books, employee locating, but data services will catch up: calenders, etc.) etc.) Share of data service revenue in Western Europe 2008 Location/position- based services Entertainment services Data service (games, communities, revenue (navigation, fleet 20% management and other gambling, etc.) location-based services) Data transfer/synchronisation Others 80% Information memory (…with other mobiles or other (services for data storage such devices such as computers, as office documents, eBooks, laptops, MP3-players, etc. (SyncML, Data service ARPU/month: 7-8 Euros password managers, etc.) ActiveSync, Object Push…) Source: Goldmedia Analysis 2008 Source: Goldmedia Estimation 2008 Supported by 7 Goldmedia-Report “Mobile Life 2012“ Content 1. Executive Summary “Mobile Life 2012“ 2. Overview: “Mobile Life“ 3. Framework Conditions for “Mobile Life“ 3.1 Technical Conditions: Digital Laws of Information Technology 3.2 Economic Parameters: Mobile Market in Germany 3.3 Market Developments: End-User Devices 4. Customer Research and Customer Perspective - Usage Habits in Germany 5. Services and Markets for “Mobile Life“ 5.1 Mobile Entertainment 5.2 Mobile Internet 5.3 Mobile Advertising & Marketing 5.4 Mobile Commerce, Payment and Ticketing 5.5 Mobile Navigation and Location Based Services 6. Benchmark: Experiences in Japan, South Korea and Italy 7. Forecasts for ”Mobile Life“ 8. Outlook and Theses Supported by 8 3.1 Technical conditions Growing usability, functionality and storage capacity! Development of mobile devices and technologies in Germany E-Net UMTS… C-Net D-Net A-Net B-Net 1958 1972 1986 1992 1994 2000… Source: Goldmedia Focus Handygeschichte/ 2008 Increasing display Declining size and resolution, growing storage weight, affordable prices, capacity, integration of multi- intuitive usability & easy media tools (music & video handling player, cameras, etc.) Supported by 9 3.1 Technical conditions Data transfer rate increases as transmission time declines! Development of data transfer rates Upgrade of standards …in Western Europe 1992-2008 LTE 50 Mbit/s A-, B- and C-net = analogue nets 10.000 HSDPA UMTS 7.2 Mbit/s D and E-net first digital nets with GSM 1.000 EDGE up to 2 standard (2G): rollout in 1992 led to a rapid GPRS 48.8-384 Mbit/s HSCSD 9,0-107 kbit/s diffusion of mobile telephony. Over 80% 100 14.4-57.6 kbit/s (~3bn people in <200 countries) use GSM. kbit/s 10 GSM GSM upgrades: GPRS, EDGE (EDGE 9.6-14.4 kbit/s Evolution), CSD (HSCSD) Data transfer rate in kbbit/s transfer Data 1 GSM HSCSD GPRS EDGE UMTS HSDPA LTE Launch of UMTS (3G) in Germany: 1992 2000 2008 Source: Goldmedia / UMIT Innsbruck 2007 Æ auction of licenses in 2000 (~50bn €) Æ 1st commercial offers in 2004 Transmission time by channel UMTS Upgrades: HSPA (High Speed Packet Access), HSDPA, HSUPA, HSPA+ video UMTS e-mail report clip Coming soon: LTE (Long Term Evolution) video GSM 2+ e-mail photo report and HSOPA (Super 3G and 4G) clip video Conclusion ISDN e-mail web photo report clip Transmission time dropped from video PSTN* e-mail web photo report clip hours to seconds! Data transfer video rates increased from 9.6 kbit/s to GSM Phase 1 e-mail web photo report clip 25Mbit/s within 16 years! 0 10 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour Source: Goldmedia / UMIT Forum 2008, * Public Switched Telephone Network Data rates double every year! Supported by 10 3.2 Economic parameters: Mobile market High penetration and strong market power of MNOs in DE! No of subscriptions & market penetration Summary 120 131% 140% …in Germany 1998-2008 118% Mobile subscriptions 120% 100 Subscribers 104% 110 doubled within seven UMTS subscribers 96% 86% 97 100% years (2000-2007). 80 Penetration in % 79% 86 68% 72% 79 80% Mobile penetration: 59% 71 60 65 more than 125% in 56 59 60% 40 48 Q2/2008! 29% 40% Million subscribers Million 17% Figures of inactive 20 15.9 23 6.5 10.4 20% members (e.g. un- 14 2.3 0 0% in per cent Penetrration used but registered 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e SIM cards from Source: BITKOM 2008/Goldmedia, e=estimation prepaid providers) MNO & MVNO market share are included. …in Germany Q1/2007 Significant growth in E-Plus 12.4% 3G subscriber figures since rollout of T-Mobile 26.6% UMTS services in O2 12.5% 2005 in Germany. Strong market power of the MNOs: E-Plus, MNVO 24.3% Vodafone 24.2% T-Mobile, Vodafone and O2 share 75% of Source: Federal Network Agency 2007 the entire market! Supported by 11 3.2 Economic parameters: Mobile market Shrinking ARPU and revenue in Germany! Total mobile revenues in Germany Conclusion 2002-2007 Decrease in total mobile revenues while 30 27.33 27.25 26.87 subscriber figures still grow.