seafood outlook SEAFOOD OUTLOOK TO 2009-10 quality not quantity the key for Australian producers Dana Hanna, Peter Gooday, David Galeano and Paul Newton • Worldwide catches of fi sh are expected to tion is available, are biologically either underex- remain fairly static over the medium term, ploited or only moderately exploited. Around 47 whereas aquaculture production is projected per cent of major marine fi sh stocks are assessed to continue to rise. as being fully exploited, and 18 per cent as over- exploited. The remaining 10 per cent of stocks • Australia produced $2.2 billion of ed- are signifi cantly depleted or recovering. This ible seafood products in 2003-04, of which means that production from around three quar- around a third came from aquaculture. In the ters of global fi sh stocks cannot be expected to same year, Australian edible seafood exports expand or increase in any substantial manner in were valued at $1.3 billion and imports at the future (FAO 2004b). $905 million. Over the past thirty years, aquaculture produc- • An assumed easing of economic growth in tion has increased at an average annual rate of major export markets is likely to place down- 9.1 per cent a year (compared with 2.1 per cent a ward pressure on seafood prices. year for capture fi sheries). Aquaculture produc- tion in 2002 was around 40 million tonnes or 30 per cent of total fi sheries production (fi gure A). Trends in world seafood markets While world aquaculture production is expected Global fi sheries production in 2002 was at a to continue expanding in the future, the rate of record high, with around 133 million tonnes expansion is projected to slow to between 0.4 produced (FAO 2004a). World production of wild caught fi sheries products has remained relatively static since the early 1990s (fi gure A). World fisheries production Forecasts of an upper limit of around 100 million A tonnes made in the 1970s are being increasingly substantiated by the catches in recent years (FAO 120 2004b). 100 The number of fi sheries around the world for Aquaculture which the current level of harvest is less than the 80 maximum biological sustainable yield (termed 60 biologically underexploited) continues to fall as global fi shing pressure increases. It is estimated 40 Wild caught that in 2002 only 25 per cent of major marine 20 fi sh stocks, or species groups for which informa- Mt • Dana Hanna • +61 2 6272 2133 • [email protected] 19931996 1999 2002 australiancommodities • vol. 12 no. 1 • march quarter 2005 143 seafood outlook per cent a year and 5.3 per cent a year (Brugere tion by the developed countries declined (Del- and Ridler 2004). The pace of growth in aquacul- gado et al. 2003). ture production will depend to a large extent on As a consequence of rising demand for fi sh- movements in world seafood prices and harvest eries products and slow growth in wild catch rates of wild fi sh stocks. supplies, the prices for fresh and frozen fi sh Global consumption of fi sh has doubled since entering world trade has been maintained in 1973, with most of the growth occurring in de- real terms in recent decades (fi gure B). This is veloping countries, many of which have expe- especially the case for demersal and pelagic rienced rapid population growth, rapid income fi sh species for which little aquaculture produc- growth, and rapid urbanisation. China’s share of tion is available. These constant real prices are global fi sh consumption increased from 11 per in contrast to the prices for most animal origin cent in 1973 to 26 per cent in 1997, while the foods, which have fallen signifi cantly in real share of India and south east Asia doubled to 11 terms over the same period. per cent. In the same period, total fi sh consump- However, world prices have been declining for many freshwater fi sh species, such as salmon, for which aquaculture operations have reached World import prices for fisheries industrial scale. Prices for farmed salmon have B products In real terms fallen in real terms as production from coun- Fresh/chilled fillets tries such as Chile and Norway have increased rapidly. Prices of canned fi nfi sh have also fallen 20 with the decline in popularity of the product in Freshwater developing countries. 15 10 Australian production and trade Demersal 5 Production increasing but value falling 2002 Australia produced $2.2 billion worth of fi sh- US$/kg Pelagic eries products in 2003-04. Around 93 per cent of 196119711981 1991 2001 this production was edible products (seafood), while the remaining nonedible proportion was Frozen fillets largely pearl production worth approximately 10 Freshwater $150 million. A wide range of species are produced in 5 Demersal Australia. In 2003-04, fi nfi sh accounted for 38 per cent of the gross value of production, crus- 2002 Pelagic US$/kg taceans 38 per cent and molluscs 22 per cent. The most valuable species produced in terms of 196119711981 1991 2001 their contribution to total fi sheries gross value of Canned finfish production, were rock lobster, prawns, abalone Freshwater and tuna (fi gure C). These are also the major 15 exported products. While the volume of total Australian fi sheries 10 production since 1994-95 increased by 15 per cent, the real value (in 2003-04 dollars) of that Demersal 5 production fell by 4 per cent (fi gure D). Falling 2002 Pelagic average real Australian prices for seafood prod- US$/kg ucts over the past decade, and particularly since 196119711981 1991 2001 1999-2000 (fi gure E), have meant that although 144 australiancommodities • vol. 12 no. 1 • march quarter 2005 seafood outlook Australian production of key species, In 2003-04 production of wild caught fi sh C 2003-04 species increased in New South Wales, South Other fish Australia and Western Australia. Most notably, catches of Australian salmon (New South Rock lobster Wales and Western Australia), pilchards (South Prawns Australia) and emperors (Western Australia) Tuna increased. Abalone In the Commonwealth fi sheries, the gillnet, Other hook and trap and Great Australian Bight fi sh- eries increased production of fi nfi sh species. For Pearls the gillnet, hook and trap fi shery, production of Oysters most species increased slightly in 2003-04. The Scallops Great Australian Bight fi shery also had increased 0200300100 400 500 600 catches of most species, especially king fl athead $ million and bight redfi sh. production levels have increased, the real value Australian export prices for key of Australia’s fi sheries production has not E species always kept pace. This was especially the case in 2002-03 and 2003-04 with the appreciation Abalone of the Australia dollar against the currencies of 60 major trading partners. Of the $2.2 billion worth of seafood prod- Rock lobster ucts produced in 2003-04, wild catch fi sheries 40 produced $1.5 billion. Following global trends Southern bluefin tuna in wild caught harvest, this sector of Australia’s 20 fi sheries production has been relatively stable Prawns over the past decade, with production fl uctuating 2003-04 Yellowfin tuna around 200 000 tonnes. However, wild caught A$/kg production has increased in the past two years, 1994 1997 2000 2003 mainly from fi nfi sh species other than tuna. -95 -98 -01 -04 Gross value of Australian fisheries While the volume of wild caught production D production has increased by only 7 per cent over the past decade, aquaculture production increased by 80 2.5 per cent. Aquaculture production fell slightly, however, in 2003-04 to 43 000 tonnes. In 2003- 2.0 Aquaculture 04, aquaculture accounted for 16 per cent of total production by volume and 34 per cent by 1.5 value, compared with 10 per cent and 21 per cent a decade earlier. 1.0 Major aquaculture species in Australia Wild caught include southern bluefi n tuna, Atlantic salmon, 0.5 oysters and prawns (fi gure F). These four species 2003-04 A$m accounted for 66 per cent of the value of total aquaculture production in 2003-04. Over 98 per 1994 1997 2000 2003 -95 -98 -01 -04 cent of wild caught southern bluefi n tuna is used australiancommodities • vol. 12 no. 1 • march quarter 2005 145 seafood outlook Gross value of production of key Kong and the United States the next largest desti- F aquaculture species, 2003-04 nations. Other major markets include Chinese Taipei, China and Singapore (fi gure G). In 2003- 04 these six markets accounted for 92 per cent Other 13% Salmon 16% of Australia’s exports by value and 81 per cent $96 million $116 million by volume. Pearls 20% $150 million The total value of Australian fi sheries exports Tuna 33% $242 million fell by 10 per cent in 2003-04 to $1.65 billion. This fall was driven primarily by the 11 per cent fall in the value of edible exports by to $1.3 billion. The value of exports to a number Oysters 10% of Asian markets such as China, Chinese Taipei $72 million Prawns 8% and Japan have not recovered to pre-SARS $56 million levels. The volume of exports to these markets has fallen slightly and their value has fallen because of falling world prices and appreciation of the Australian dollar. for aquaculture growout operations. Aquaculture The Australian dollar continued to appre- farms contribute 35 per cent of Australian prawn ciate in 2003-04 relative to the US dollar (by production, 5 per cent of abalone and all Atlantic 22 per cent) and the Japanese yen (by 13 per salmon and oyster production.