Identification and Evaluation of Options for the Future of KeyArena Prepared for: The Seattle City Council June 2015 AECOM TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................... 8 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 9 2. OVERVIEW OF KEYARENA AND SEATTLE CENTER .............................................................. 17 THE FUTURE OF KEYARENA ..................................................................................................................... 17 KEYARENA OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 18 SEATTLE CENTER OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................... 29 OTHER RELEVANT ISSUES ........................................................................................................................ 30 3. MARKET ANALYSIS: SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT ........................................................... 32 CURRENT KEYARENA TENANTS ................................................................................................................ 32 THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FACILITIES AND EVENTS .................................................................. 34 OTHER STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK ............................................................................................................ 44 COMPARABLE FACILITIES ......................................................................................................................... 46 4. NBA AND NHL OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................... 58 NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION ...................................................................................................... 58 NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE ..................................................................................................................... 72 5. OTHER POTENTIAL ENTERTAINMENT USES .......................................................................... 86 REVIEW OF AVAILABLE MARKETS .............................................................................................................. 86 EVALUATION OF SEATTLE ATTRACTIONS MARKET ..................................................................................... 95 ARENA REUSE PROJECTS ........................................................................................................................ 98 EVALUATION OF ENTERTAINMENT AND ATTRACTION ALTERNATIVES ......................................................... 102 SUMMARY OF MARKET ANALYSIS FOR SCENARIO D ................................................................................... 114 6. PHYSICAL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................ 116 SCENARIO A – MAINTAIN KEYARENA ....................................................................................................... 116 SCENARIO B – WITH MAJOR PROFESSIONAL TENANT; NO NEW ARENA IN SEATTLE ...................................... 116 SCENARIO C – REPURPOSE AS AN ENTERTAINMENT VENUE ....................................................................... 131 SCENARIO D – OTHER USER GROUPS ...................................................................................................... 134 ESTIMATED COSTS ................................................................................................................................. 135 7. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS............................................................................................................... 137 SCENARIOS A THROUGH C – SPORTS/ENTERTAINMENT OPTIONS ............................................................. 137 SCENARIO D – REPURPOSING OPTION .................................................................................................... 155 8. HOUSING POTENTIAL ............................................................................................................... 159 DRIVERS OF DEMAND ............................................................................................................................. 159 SUPPLY METRICS .................................................................................................................................... 160 DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS ................................................................................................................... 166 WORKFORCE HOUSING .......................................................................................................................... 167 CAPACITY ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................. 168 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 168 Identification and Evaluation of Options for the Future of KeyArena 2 April 2015 AECOM LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Estimated Project Costs ($000s) ........................................................................................................... 13 Table 2: Forecasted Annual Events for Scenarios A-C ....................................................................................... 14 Table 3: Forecasted Total Annual Attendance for Scenarios A-C ...................................................................... 14 Table 4: Forecasted Revenues and Expenses for Scenarios A-C, 2024 ............................................................ 15 Table 5: KeyArena Events and Attendance, 2010-2013 ..................................................................................... 20 Table 6: KeyArena Revenues and Expenses, 2010-2014 ($000s) ..................................................................... 21 Table 7: KeyArena Subcommittee Conclusions .................................................................................................. 27 Table 8: “New Arena – Imagine the Future” Recommended Improvements ....................................................... 28 Table 9: KeyArena Five-Year Business Plan Goals ............................................................................................ 28 Table 10: Tacoma Dome Events and Attendance .............................................................................................. 37 Table 11: ShoWare Center Events and Attendance ........................................................................................... 38 Table 12: Xfinity Arena Attendance ..................................................................................................................... 39 Table 13: Local and Regional Amphitheaters ..................................................................................................... 41 Table 14 : NBA Arena Characteristics and Attendance ...................................................................................... 59 Table 15: NBA Arena Funding ............................................................................................................................ 60 Table 16: NBA Arena Ownership and Management ........................................................................................... 61 Table 17: NBA Franchise Financial Metrics ........................................................................................................ 66 Table 18: NHL Arena Characteristics .................................................................................................................. 74 Table 19: NHL Arena Funding ............................................................................................................................ 75 Table 20: NHL Arena Ownership and Management ........................................................................................... 76 Table 21: NHL Franchise Financial Metrics ........................................................................................................ 79 Table 22: Summary of Available Markets ........................................................................................................... 93 Table 23: Seattle Attractions Characteristics and Performance Metrics ............................................................. 97 Table 24: Results of Screening Process (1 of 2) ............................................................................................... 105 Table 25: Results of Screening Process (2 of 2) ............................................................................................... 105 Table 26: Estimated Project Costs ($000s) ....................................................................................................... 136 Table 27: Projected Annual Events, Scenarios A-C .......................................................................................... 139 Table 28: Projected Average Paid Attendance, Scenarios A-C ........................................................................ 139 Table 29: Projected Total Paid Attendance, Scenarios A-C ............................................................................