United States Department of Agriculture Central Appalachians Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework Project Forest Northern General Technical Service Research Station Report NRS-146 February 2015 ABSTRACT Forest ecosystems across the Central Appalachians will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of nine forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists, land managers, and academics familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that average minimum temperatures have increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall. Precipitation has also increased in the area, particularly in fall. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2 to 8 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate increases in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many mesic species, including American beech, eastern hemlock, eastern white pine, red spruce, and sugar maple may fare worse under future conditions, but other species such as eastern redcedar may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for nine forest ecosystems in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 19 science and management experts from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts on a forest ecosystem and the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem. Appalachian (hemlock)/northern hardwood forests, large stream floodplain and riparian forests, small stream riparian forests, and spruce/fir forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. Dry/mesic oak forests and dry oak and oak/pine forests and woodlands were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest- dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning. Cover Photo Small stream riparian forest with a red spruce forest in the background. Photo by Patricia Butler, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science and Michigan Tech, used with permission. Manuscript received for publication June 2014 Published by: For additional copies, contact: USDA FOREST SERVICE USDA Forest Service 11 CAMPUS BLVD., SUITE 200 Publications Distribution NEWTOWN SQUARE, PA 19073-3294 359 Main Road Delaware, OH 43015-8640 February 2015 Fax: 740-368-0152 Visit our homepage at: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ Central Appalachians Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework Project Patricia R. Butler, Louis R. Iverson, Frank R. Thompson III, Leslie A. Brandt, Stephen D. Handler, Maria K. Janowiak, P. Danielle Shannon, Chris Swanston, Kent Karriker, Jarel Bartig, Stephanie Connolly, William D. Dijak, Scott Bearer, Steve L. Blatt, Andrea Brandon, Elizabeth Byers, Cheryl Coon, Tim Culbreth, Jad Daly, Wade Dorsey, David Ede, Chris Euler, Neil Gillies, David M. Hix, Catherine Johnson, Latasha Lyte, Stephen Matthews, Dawn McCarthy, Dave Minney, Daniel Murphy, Claire O’Dea, Rachel Orwan, Matthew Peters, Anantha Prasad, Cotton Randall, Jason Reed, Cynthia Sandeno, Tom Schuler, Lesley Sneddon, Bill Stanley, Al Steele, Susan Stout, Randy Swaty, Jason Teets, Tim Tomon, Jim Vanderhorst, John Whatley, and Nicholas Zegre AUTHOrs PATRICIA R. BUTLER is a climate change outreach specialist with STEVE L. BLATT is a forest biologist with the Wayne National the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Michigan Forest, 13700 U.S. Hwy 33, Nelsonville, OH 45764, Technological University, U.J. Noblet Forestry Building, [email protected]. 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. ANDREA BRANDON is the Central Appalachians program LOUIS R. IVERSON is a landscape ecologist with the U.S. Forest coordinator with The Nature Conservancy, 194 Airport Road, Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware, Elkins, WV 26241, [email protected]. OH 43015, [email protected]. ELIZABETH BYERS is a vegetation ecologist with the West FRANK R. THOMPSON III is a research wildlife biologist with the Virginia Division of Natural Resources, Natural Heritage U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 202 Anheuser- Program, P.O. Box 67, Elkins, WV 26241, Busch Natural Resources Building, University of Missouri – [email protected]. Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211, [email protected]. CHERYL COON is a forest botanist with the Hoosier National LESLIE A. BRANDT is a climate change specialist with the Forest, 811 Constitution Avenue, Bedford, IN 47421, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest [email protected]. Service, Northern Research Station, 1992 Folwell Avenue, TIM CULBRETH is the Chesapeake Watershed Forester for the St. Paul, MN 55108, [email protected]. Maryland Forest Service, 580 Taylor Avenue, E-1, Annapolis, MD STEPHEN D. HANDLER is a climate change specialist with the 21401, [email protected]. Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest JAD DALEY is a program director at the Trust for Public Land, Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, 660 Pennsylvania Avenue SE, Suite 401, Washington, DC 20003, [email protected]. [email protected]. MARIA K. JANOWIAK is a climate change adaptation and carbon WADE DORSEY is the forest manager of the Savage River management scientist with the Northern Institute of Applied State Forest, 127 Headquarters Lane, Grantsville, MD 21536, Climate Science, U.S. Forest Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, [email protected]. Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. DAVID EDE (retired) was the forest planner and National P. DANIELLE SHANNON is a climate change outreach specialist Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) coordinator with the with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Monongahela National Forest, 200 Sycamore Street, Elkins, WV Michigan Technological University, U.J. Noblet Forestry Building, 26241. He can be reached at [email protected]. 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. CHRIS EULER is an archaeologist with the Wayne National Forest, 13700 U.S. Hwy 33, Nelsonville, OH 45764, CHRIS SWANSTON is a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest [email protected]. Service, Northern Research Station, and director of the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, 410 MacInnes NEIL GILLIES is the director of science and education at the Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. Cacapon Institute, P.O. Box 68, High View, WV, 26808, [email protected]. KENT KARRIKER is the ecosystems group leader with the Monongahela National Forest, 200 Sycamore Street, Elkins, WV DAVID M. HIX is an associate professor with the School of 26241, [email protected]. Environment and Natural Resources at Ohio State University, 365A Kottman Hall, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210, JAREL BARTIG is an ecologist with the Wayne National Forest, [email protected]. 13700 U.S. Hwy 33, Nelsonville, OH 45764, [email protected]. CATHERINE JOHNSON is a wildlife biologist with the STEPHANIE CONNOLLY is a forest soil scientist with the Monongahela National Forest, 200 Sycamore Street, Elkins, WV Monongahela National Forest, 200 Sycamore Street, Elkins, WV 26241, [email protected]. 26241, [email protected]. LATASHA LYTE is a forest soil scientist with the Wayne National WILLIAM D. DIJAK is a wildlife biologist and geographic Forest, 13700 U.S. Hwy 33, Nelsonville, OH 45764, information systems specialist with the U.S. Forest Service, [email protected]. Northern Research Station, 202 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, University of Missouri – Columbia, STEPHEN MATTHEWS is a research assistant professor with Columbia, MO 65211, [email protected]. the School of Environment and Natural Resources at Ohio State University, and an ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service, SCOTT BEARER is a senior conservation scientist with The Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware, OH Nature Conservancy, 220 West Fourth Street,