INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME TRANSCONTINENTAL INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS TO 2030/2050 TURKEY/BOSPHORUS GATEWAY CASE STUDY ISTANBUL WORKSHOP HELD 19-20 APRIL 2010 FINAL REPORT Contact persons: Barrie Stevens: +33 (0)1 45 24 78 28, [email protected] Pierre-Alain Schieb: +33 (0)1 45 24 82 70, [email protected] Anita Gibson: +33 (0)1 45 24 96 72, [email protected] 10 August 2011 1 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW.................................................................................................................................. 5 CHAPTER 1 MARMARAY PROJECT ..................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 2 MERSIN CONTAINER PORT PROJECT........................................................... 37 CHAPTER 3 NABUCCO GAS PIPELINE PROJECT .............................................................. 51 ANNEX A LISTING OF WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS ........................................................ 61 3 4 OVERVIEW Introduction The OECD’s Transcontinental Infrastructure Needs to 2030/2050 Project is bringing together experts from the public and private sector to take stock of the long-term opportunities and challenges facing macro gateway and corridor infrastructure (ports, airports, rail corridors, oil and gas pipelines etc.). The intention is to propose a set of policy options to enhance the contribution of these infrastructures to economic and social development at home and abroad in the years to come. This Istanbul Workshop focussed on three strategic infrastructure projects in Turkey (Marmaray, Mersin Container Port and Nabucco Gas pipeline) proposed for consideration by the Turkish authorities. While the workshop focussed exclusively on the projects put forward, after looking more broadly, it is clear that Turkey is becoming a new hub in the region and has much to offer to other Central Asian, Middle Eastern and South European economies. Organisation and participation The Workshop was organised by the State Planning Organisation in the Prime Minister’s Department and chaired by Mr. Ekrem Karademir, State Planning Organisation (SPO). There were 12 Turkish participants who came from the Turkish State Planning Organisation, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Ministry of Transport, DLH and Avrasya Consult (Marmaray project) and, on the second day Altinok Ltd. (Mersin Container Port project) – see list in the attached Annex A. The OECD’s International Futures Programme was represented by John White. (Barrie Stevens was unable to attend owing to the disruption to international air services caused by the Icelandic volcano ash.) The venue was provided by the Ministry of Transportation’s General Directorate of Railways, Harbours and Airport Construction (DLH), the body managing the Marmaray construction project. Case Study Programme – Status Report and Workshop Objectives – (OECD/IFP staff) The Workshop noted the OECD’s status report on its Transcontinental Infrastructure to 2030/2050 project, the Case Study programme approved by the Project’s Steering Group and the Workshops being undertaken as part of the Project. Workshop objectives identified included exploring the major opportunities and challenges associated with the three nominated strategic infrastructure projects. 5 Marmaray rail crossing Presentation by OECD/IFP on Global outlook and regional developments – context The OECD’s presentation highlighted the global economic, trade and transport outlook in the short to medium term – and the longer term. Discussion focussed on the key aspects of importance to the project. Consideration was given subsequently to current global and regional maritime container traffic and possible trade route developments that could bear on the Case Study area. The OECD advised Turkish input would be welcome on the outlook for the Bosphorus and nearby regions. Presentations on Marmaray Project – objectives and current position Nusret ILBAY’s presentation on the Marmaray project outlined the objectives, scope and progress. There are three current contracts for the work: the Bosphorus Crossing (BC1); the Commuter Rail (CR1); and the Rolling Stock (CR2). The overall cost is expected to be well over US$3 billion. The expected project duration is 2004-2013, with delays in completion dates due primarily to archaeological works in the vicinity of the Bosphorus. Serdinç YILMAZ’s presentation highlighted planned connections between the Marmaray Rail project and the High Speed Network, connections to the Freight Network & the current position reached on the overall project. Presentation in Marmaray Project Integration with Urban Transportation Gülbün SALOR’s presentation outlined the Integration with Urban Transportation, addressing the expected improvements in freight and passenger services, capacity and usage as well as in accessibility and the impacts expected on managing traffic congestion. Discussions explored the interactions between the project and its wider settings and additional issues that may need to be taken into account. Infrastructure funding and financing The current project focus is on completion of the challenging construction work. The hosts outlined funding and financing arrangements for the construction phases of the Marmaray line, which appeared quite robust. Once the construction work is more advanced, further work will be needed by the authorities on expected fares and revenues after the Marmaray rail line is in operation – and the relationship between expected revenues and expected operating costs. Infrastructure contributions to “Green Growth” The OECD highlighted the work being done across developed countries, following OECD Ministers’ support for “Green Growth” approaches and their resolutions on the development of Green Growth strategies. Clearly, the Marmaray project will be expected to make a very large contribution to reductions in CO2 emissions in the longer term, as a result of improved infrastructure operation and use over the project life. Further insights on these and any other aspects which might need some further advice could be pursued after the meeting. 6 Marmaray project site visit There was a site visit to the Marmaray Rail Tunnel Project, which included a tour of the Üsküdar station, the tunnel between the station and the underwater crossing and an inspection of part of the underwater tube crossing under the Bosphorus Straits Vessel traffic management system There was also a visit to the Coastal Safety Directorate’s Traffic Control Centre for the Bosphorus, where an advanced Vessel Traffic Management System (VTMS) system was being used to direct shipping traffic through the Bosphorus Straits. Automatic Identification Systems provide basic shipping route details and vectors and warn of impending collisions. Data from other sources provide the additional detail needed on cargoes etc. Coastal safety educational centre There was also visit to the Coastal Safety Educational Centre hosted by the Director. Turkey’s transport policy and maritime infrastructure needs Ekrem KARADEMIR’s presentation outlined Turkey’s Transport Policy. His following presentation outlined Maritime Infrastructure Needs and reinforced that, for large infrastructure project financing, priority is being given to Public-Private Partnership models. Transport infrastructure needs assessment for Turkey (TINA) study, 2007 Ekrem KARADEMIR’s presentation on the TINA Study outlined its forecasts for transport in Turkey. These anticipated robust growth over the period to 2020. One of the priority projects identified in the TINA Study was the Mersin Container Port, the second of the strategic infrastructure projects put forward by the Turkish authorities. The hosts advised that the TINA forecasts are being reviewed but the new forecasts are not currently available. Mersin container port Arda ALTINOK presented plans for the development of the Mersin Container Port as a major gateway port in the eastern Mediterranean. The specific objective of the project is to facilitate the construction of a new container port in Mersin, adjoining the existing Port of Mersin, in order to consolidate the existing Port of Mersin as a gateway for import-export traffic and a transshipment hub in the region. The TINA (Transportation Infrastructure Needs Assessment – 2007) report includes the new development of the port of Mersin amongst the top priorities and a recent feasibility study conducted after the TINA study defined a capacity of 4 million TEUs by 2020 and 11.4 million TEUs by 2035. Sources of traffic for the new Mersin Container Port are expected to be principally: Local Hinterland (vicinity of port); Turkish Hinterland (north, north-east and eastern regions); Land Transit (to landlocked countries); Land Bridge Mersin-Filyos (i.e. from Mediterranean to Black Sea via Ankara); Trans-shipment (not a major objective for the gateway port). The port would be developed in phases, in line with market demand. In terms of hinterland and land transit traffic, the new container port will build on established demand and services to the existing port of Mersin. 7 Nabucco project Vahit ÇALIŞIR’s presentation highlighted the Nabucco Gas Pipeline project, the third strategic infrastructure project put forward for consideration. Demand for gas in Europe is expected to increase considerably in the upcoming two decades. Sufficient gas reserves are available in the regions around Europe to meet this expected future increase in demand. The biggest challenge, however, is how the gas can best be transported to