Assessing the Impacts of COVID-19 on MSMEs in South Asia and East Asia Pacific in Relation to Child Rights Final Report February, 2021 UNICEF ROSA AND EAPRO Contents 1. Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 7 2. Rationale for MSME Focus ............................................................................................................ 14 3. Economic Impact of COVID-19 on The Economy and MSMEs in South Asia and East Asia Pacific ..................................................................................................................................................... 16 3.1 Macroeconomic impact ................................................................................................................................... 16 3.2 Impact on MSMEs .............................................................................................................................................. 18 4. MSME Coping Measures And Their Impact On Child Rights .................................................... 21 5. Key MSME Sectors and Populations Impacted By COVID-19 ................................................... 31 6. Review of Mitigation Measures ................................................................................................... 41 6.1 Cross-cutting measures ............................................................................................................................. 45 6.2 Nutrition-specific measures ..................................................................................................................... 53 6.3 Primary healthcare-specific measures ................................................................................................... 55 6.4 Child protection-specific measures........................................................................................................ 56 6.5 Education-specific measures .................................................................................................................... 58 7. Opportunities for UNICEF ............................................................................................................. 61 Areas for further exploration ................................................................................................................................. 72 8. Country Snapshots ........................................................................................................................ 73 8.1 Afghanistan ................................................................................................................................................... 74 8.2 Bangladesh .................................................................................................................................................... 86 8.3 Nepal ............................................................................................................................................................. 103 8.4 Pakistan......................................................................................................................................................... 116 8.5 Sri Lanka ....................................................................................................................................................... 129 8.6 China.............................................................................................................................................................. 140 8.7 Indonesia ...................................................................................................................................................... 151 8.8 The Philippines ........................................................................................................................................... 165 8.9 Thailand ........................................................................................................................................................ 177 Annex I: Methodology and Definitions ............................................................................................ 191 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................... 191 Definitions ................................................................................................................................................................. 195 Annex II: Detailed Impact of MSME Response on Child Rights ..................................................... 198 Annex III: Regional Impact Snapshots .............................................................................................. 208 Economic and Child Rights Impact Snapshot: South Asia ......................................................................... 208 Economic and Child Rights Impact Snapshot: East Asia Pacific ............................................................... 217 Figure 1: Projected real GDP growth rate ............................................................................................................. 17 Figure 2: Trend of stringency of measures over 2020 ..................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Share of firms benefitting from COVID-19 government support by firm size .................. 19 Figure 4: Conceptual framework for impact of MSME responses on child rights ............................... 21 Figure 5: Differential in labour productivity in wages between MSMEs and large businesses ..... 22 Figure 6: Public debt burdens across South Asia and East Asia Pacific ................................................... 25 Figure 7: 2020 trends in international tourist arrivals for tourism-dependent countries................ 32 Figure 8: Distribution of job losses among youth in 2020 due to COVID-19 across sectors .......... 35 Figure 9: Potential direct and indirect measures for safeguarding child rights in the context of COVID-19’s impact on business ................................................................................................................................ 43 Figure 10: Potential measures to mitigate challenges across child rights areas in the context of COVID-19’s impact on MSMEs .................................................................................................................................. 45 Figure 11: COVID-19 cases & Stringency of measures .................................................................................... 74 Figure 12: GDP, constant prices, per cent change ........................................................................................... 74 Figure 13: COVID-19 related change in coverage of services ...................................................................... 75 Figure 14: Sectoral impact of COVID-19 in Afghanistan ................................................................................ 75 Figure 15: MSME actions impacting child rights issues in Afghanistan .................................................. 78 Figure 16: COVID-19 cases and stringency of measures ................................................................................ 86 Figure 17: GDP, constant prices, per cent change in Bangladesh ............................................................. 87 Figure 18: COVID-19 related change in coverage of services in Bangladesh ........................................ 87 Figure 19: Sectoral impact of COVID-19 in Bangladesh ................................................................................. 88 Figure 20: Revenue decline faced by SMEs in Bangladesh ............................................................................ 91 Figure 21: Revenue decline faced by RMG SMEs in Bangladesh ................................................................ 91 Figure 22: Key child rights indicators for Bangladesh in 2019 .................................................................... 94 Figure 23: MSME actions impacting child rights issues in Bangladesh .................................................... 95 Figure 24: Social security schemes in Bangladesh and levels of investment307 .................................... 96 Figure 25: COVID-19 cases & Stringency of measures .................................................................................. 103 Figure 26: GDP, constant prices, per cent change ......................................................................................... 103 Figure 27: COVID-19 related change in coverage of services .................................................................... 104 Figure 28: Sectoral impact of COVID-19 in Nepal ........................................................................................... 104 Figure 29: MSME actions impacting child rights issues in Nepal ............................................................. 109 Figure 30: COVID-19 cases & Stringency of measures in Pakistan .......................................................... 116 Figure 31: GDP, constant prices, per cent change in Pakistan .................................................................. 117 Figure 32: COVID-19 related change in coverage of services in Pakistan............................................. 117 Figure 33: Sectoral impact of COVID-19 in Pakistan...................................................................................... 118