Some Unintended Fallout from Defense Policy: Measuring the Effect of Atmospheric Nuclear Testing on American Mortality Patterns Keith Meyers∗ June 29, 2021 Abstract To better understand the health and social costs associated with radioac- tive pollution and nuclear weapons development, this paper studies a historical period of atmospheric nuclear testing in the 1950s. Using estimates of annual county level fallout patterns for the continental U.S. and vital statistics records, this paper finds that atmospheric nuclear testing performed in Nevada con- tributed to substantial and prolonged increases in overall mortality and cancer mortality. These increases in mortality occur over a broader geographic region than previous medical research would suggest. JEL Codes: I15, N32, Q53. Keywords: Nuclear Testing, Public Health, Ra- dioactive Fallout, Defense Policy ∗Assistant Professor, University of Southern Denmark, [email protected]. This material is based in part upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number SES 1658749 and additional financial support has been provided by the Economic History Association. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Thanks to Price Fishback, Derek Lemoine, Ashley Langer, Joseph Ferrie, and Cihan Artun¸cfor feedback, data and support. Additional thanks to Andre Bouville, Steven Simon, and the National Cancer Institute for their help providing fallout deposition records. 1 The development of nuclear weapons is one of the defining elements of the 20th Century. Advancement in this this Cold War technology involved destructive atmo- spheric nuclear tests. One consequence of this testing was the release of tremendous quantities of radioactive material into the environment. Like previous advancements and innovations in technology, such as the adoption of lead water piping or the adop- tion of fossil fuels (Troesken, 2008; Hanlon, 2016; Clay et al., 2016; Beach and Hanlon, 2016), the advancement of nuclear technologies created substantial unintended social consequences. The socioeconomic consequences of fallout from atmospheric nuclear testing are not fully understood, and studies on the health effects of testing focus primarily on populations surrounding nuclear test sites or the locations of nuclear dis- asters. This paper uses US vital statistics and fallout deposition estimates provided by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), to study whether atmospheric nuclear testing conducted in Nevada had discernible effects on US mortality patterns on a national scale. I find evidence that fallout from these nuclear tests contributed to substan- tial and prolonged increases in mortality across the continental United States, and that these increases occurred in places far beyond the region surrounding the testing location. Between 1945 and 1992 the United States conducted 1,054 nuclear tests and of these 216 were atmospheric nuclear tests (U.S. Department of Energy, 2000). The epicenter of US testing is located just northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada, at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Here the US government conducted scores of atmospheric nuclear tests until 1963.1 Fallout from these tests landed across much of the continental United States in the days following these experiments, but the extent to which these tests affected public health remains uncertain. Medical and clinical researchers have carried out extensive research on the effects of the NTS tests on people living around the testing location (Stevens et al., 1990; Kerber et al., 1993; Gilbert et al., 1998, 2010). From these studies of these relatively small populations the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and others have extrapolated cancer risks to the general US population. 1The most active period of nuclear testing lasted from 1951 to 1958. A small number of low-yield, atmospheric tests were conducted in 1962. 2 Past economic research has shown that low levels of ionizing radiation resulting from nuclear disasters and bomb testing can have broad effects on society and the economy. Lehmann and Wadsworth (2011) and Danzer and Danzer (2016) have shown that exposure to Chernobyl radiation adversely affects self-reported measures of health and economic well-being and that uncertainty surrounding personal radiation exposure imposes a substantial psychological burden. Elsner and Wozny (2018) show persons residing in more irradiated areas during the Chernobyl disaster experience more rapid cognitive decline later in life. Ito and Kuriyama (2017) and Kawaguchi and Yukutake (2017) show that the Fukushima disaster affected consumer behaviors and land values. Using Nordic administrative records, Almond et al. (2009) and Black et al. (2019) find that prenatal exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation from Chernobyl and nuclear testing decrease human capital, education, and earnings in adulthood. Within the context of the US, Meyers (2019) finds the NTS testing led to reductions in agricultural yields in more irradiated locations relative to less irradiated ones. The human capital effects observed in the economics literature is consistent with a body of scientific and medical research establishing that exposure to ionizing radiation can have substantial adverse effects on human health (National Research Council, 2006; Simon et al., 2006; Simon and Bouville, 2015). This literature finds that exposure to ionizing radiation is harmful to biological systems, can suppress the immune system, can increase the risk of developing cancers, and even lead to cardiovascular disease (National Research Council, 2006). Exposure to such radiation can damage tissue and DNA in ways that are difficult for the body to repair. Nevertheless, there is still much uncertainty surrounding the health effects of low dose exposure to ionizing radiation and it would take \extraordinarily large studies" to sufficiently ascertain these health risks (Brenner et al., 2003). 3 Historical Background The U.S. ushered in the atomic age when it detonated its first nuclear bomb on July 16th, 1945 at the Alamogordo Bombing and Gunnery Range. Less than a month later, the U.S. detonated two additional bombs over the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The resulting destruction is estimated to have killed at least 150,000 Japanese civilians (The Manhatton Engineer District, 1946). After World War II, the United States conducted additional atmospheric nuclear tests at Bikini and Enewetak atolls in the Pacific Ocean. Over 2,000 nuclear weapons have been detonated. The United States is responsible for 1,054 of these nuclear tests. From 1945 to 1992, the United States conducted 210 atmospheric tests, 5 underwater tests, and 839 underground nuclear tests (U.S. Department of Energy, 2000; Fehner and Gosling, 2006). Figure 1 plots the number of U.S atomic tests from 1945 to 1992. From 1945 to 1958, the United States engaged in atmospheric nuclear testing. From 1958 to 1961 a testing moratorium between the U.S. and USSR led to a suspension of testing. This agreement ended and led to a small number of U.S. atmospheric tests in 1962. With the signing of the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963 all atmospheric nuclear tests conducted by the U.S. ceased and testing went underground. The Nevada Test Site After the Soviet Union detonated its first successful nuclear bomb in 1949, U.S. policy makers sought to accelerate the development of its own nuclear capabilities. Initially hesitant towards testing within the continental U.S., security and logistical concerns after the breakout of the Korean War prompted the establishment of the NTS (Fehner and Gosling, 2000). The initial Trinity tests in 1945 were conducted in New Mexico. All other tests conducted prior to the opening of the NTS occurred in the Pacific. The Pacific tests proved logistically costly, slow to implement, and expensive. American leaders sought a convenient testing location and settled on the Nevada Test Site due 4 to its proximity to U.S. government labs, low levels of precipitation, and relatively secluded location (Center for Disease Control, 2006; National Cancer Institute, 1997). Located mostly in Nye County, Nevada, this military zone became the epicenter of the American nuclear weapons program and hosted 928 nuclear tests. Figure 2 describes the number, explosive magnitude (measured in kilotons of TNT), and estimated ra- dioactive release from these NTS nuclear tests by year. One estimate places the total atmospheric release of radioactive material from the NTS at over 12 billion Curies between 1951 and 1963. In comparison, Chernobyl released an estimated 81 million Curies of radioactive material (LeBaron, 1998). Figure 3 presents NCI estimates for cumulative deposition of radioactive iodine- 131 for the continental United States. Notice there is substantial variation in cumu- lative deposition and there are areas far from the NTS that experienced relatively large quantities of radioactive fallout. The \Downwind" region located primarily in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah experienced tremendous quantities of radioactive fallout. California and the Pacific Northwest generally did not experience substantial fallout deposition. Many counties in the Great Plains and Midwest also experienced large amounts of deposition. In the Northeast, there is also a cluster of counties that were also substantially exposed to radioactive fallout from NTS testing. During the early 1950s, the public was largely unaware of the dangers