Belief in the Paranormal: Measurement Development and Evaluation. By Kenneth Graham Drinkwater A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Manchester Metropolitan University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Department of Psychology The Manchester Metropolitan University November 2017 1 2 Contents Page Number Contents pages p3-12 List of tables p10-12 Acknowledgements p13 Abstract p15 Brief outline p17 Thesis aims p17 Primary aims of the research p17-18 Secondary aims of the research p18 Chapter 1. Understanding paranormal beliefs: the main associates’ p19-57 1. Introduction p19 1.0. Preamble p19 1.1. What is the paranormal? P19-30 1.1.2. Characterisations of the paranormal p20 1.1.3. Individual accounts p20 1.1.4. Claims p20-21 1.1.5. Media p21-22 1.1.6. Culture p22-23 1.1.7. Beliefs and common measures of paranormal beliefs p24-25 1.1.8. Prevalent self-report measures p25-27 1.2. Paranormal belief - definitions p27-30 1.2.1. Summary p31 1.3. Beliefs and associates p31-33 1.3.1. Belief systems p33-34 1.3.2. Magical thinking/ideation p34-35 1.3.3. Intelligence and paranormal belief p35-37 1.3.4. Cognitive correlates and belief p37-38 1.3.5. Reasoning and problem solving p38-39 1.3.6. Delusional ideation and paranormal belief p39-40 1.3.7. Transliminality and paranormal belief p40-42 1.3.8. Schizotypy and belief in the paranormal p42-43 1.4. The role of disbelief (scepticism) p44-45 3 1.4.1. A need to believe in something p45-46 1.4.2. Can belief ownership affect data collection? P46-47 1.4.3. Religiosity p47-49 1.5. Additional correlates p50-53 1.5.1. Personality and belief p50 1.5.2. Gender p50 1.5.3. Age p50-51 1.5.4. Education p51-52 1.5.5. Locus of control p52 1.6. Methods used to measure belief in the paranormal p52-54 1.7. Ethical considerations of measurement/design p55-56 1.7.1. Conclusion: Ethics of scale development p56-57 Chapter 2. Paranormal history p58-61 2.1. Brief summary p58 2.1.1. Early beginnings p58-59 2.1.2. Spiritualism and mesmerism p59-60 2.1.3. Important developments p60-61 Chapter 3. Development of paranormal scales p62-94 3.1. Developing a suitable measure p62-66 3.1.1. Measuring belief in the paranormal p65-66 3.1.2. Early scales of paranormal belief p66-67 3.1.3. Popular scales p67-68 3.1.4. Lawrence’s critique of the PBS p68-71 3.1.5. More recent additions p71-74 3.1.6. What is missing from current paranormal measures? P74-76 3.1.7. Are any superfluous constructs included: The issue of religious beliefs? p76-78 3.1.8. Conclusion p78-79 3.2 Current research in paranormal belief p79-94 3.2.1. Contemporary research in paranormal belief p79-80 3.2.2. The research of Dagnall (2007-2015) p80-83 3.2.3. The research of Irwin (1993-2015) p83-85 4 3.2.4. The research of Thalbourne, Houran and Lange (1985-2012) p85-86 3.2.5. The research of Jinks and Storm (2010-2017) p87-89 3.3. Anomalous beliefs p89-94 3.3.1. Urban legends p89-91 3.3.2. Reality testing p91-92 3.3.3. Conspiracy theories p92-94 Chapter 4. Developing a new paranormal belief measure (MMUpbs) p95-127 4. Overview of the analytical process p95 4.1. General overview p95 4.1.1. Specific phase objectives p96-97 4.2. Phase I – Exploring the nature and structure of paranormal belief using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) p97 4.2.1. Introduction and background to phase I p97-101 4.3. Method p102-106 4.3.1. Respondents p102 4.3.2. Materials p102-105 4.3.3. Extracted paranormal belief factors p102 4.3.4. Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS) p103 4.3.5. Australian Sheep-Goat Scale (ASGS) p104 4.3.6. Anomalous beliefs p104 4.3.7. Paranormal experiences p104-105 4.3.8. Procedure p105 4.3.9. Ethics p105-106 4.4. Results p107-125 4.4.1. Paranormal experience p107-108 4.4.2. Gender and paranormal experience p108-111 4.4.3. Exploratory factor analysis p112-113 4.4.4. Exploration of the adapted paranormal belief measure structure p112-113 4.4.5. Preliminary analysis p112-113 4.4.6. Main analysis p113-118 5 4.5. Factors and gender p118 4.5.1. Tests of difference p118-120 4.5.2. Relationship between new scale, existing scales, anomalistic beliefs and paranormal experience p120-123 4.5.3. Scale relationships p123 4.5.4. Preliminary analysis of factor structure p123-125 4.6. Phase I Discussion p126 4.6.1. General discussion p126 4.7. Conclusion p126-127 Chapter 5. Phase II - confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and further enhancement of the MMUpbs scale p128-148 5.1. General overview of phase II p128 5.1.1. Re-examination of the nine-factor solution p128-129 5.1.2. Introduction and background to phase II p129-131 5.2. Method p131-133 5.2.1. Respondents p131 5.2.2. Materials p131 5.2.3. Several measures used in phase II p131-132 5.2.4. Extracted paranormal belief factors (MMUpbs new measure of paranormal belief) p131-133 5.2.5. Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS) p132 5.2.6. Australian Sheep-Goat Scale (ASGS) p132 5.2.7. Global items (beliefs) p132-133 5.2.8. Procedure p133 5.3. Results p133-144 5.3.1. Scale reliability p133-135 5.3.2. Inter-measure correlations p135-137 5.3.3. Scale relationships p137-138 5.4. Preliminary analysis p138 5.4.1. Exploration of the MMUpbs (New paranormal belief measure structure) p138 5.4.2. Main analysis p139-143 6 5.4.3. PCA (Principal component analysis) p144 5.4.4. CFA (Confirmatory factor analysis) p144 5.5. Phase II Discussion p144-147 5.6. Conclusion p147-148 Chapter 6. Phase III - Refining the MMUpbs (validation of current MMUpbs) p149-174 6.1. Phase III - Refining the MMUpbs (general overview) p149 6.1.1. Introduction and background to phase III p149 6.1.2. Dagnall et al. (2007, 2014) p149-150 6.1.3. Rogers et al. (2009, 2011) p150-152 6.1.4. Summary p152 6.2. Method p152-153 6.2.1. Respondents p152-153 6.2.2. Materials p153-155 6.2.3. Paranormal belief factors p153 6.2.4. Reality testing p153-154 6.3. Probabilistic reasoning tasks p154-155 6.3.1. Perception of randomness p154 6.3.2. Base rate p154 6.3.3. Conjunction fallacy p154 6.3.4. Paranormal conjunction fallacy p155 6.3.5. Probability p155 6.3.6. Procedure and ethics p155 6.4. Results p156-168 6.4.1. Scale reliability p156 6.4.2. Rasch scale scoring p156 6.4.3. Inter-measure correlations p157 6.4.4. Probabilistic reasoning errors p157-159 6.4.5. Further analysis of reasoning and belief in the paranormal p159-162 6.4.6. High vs. low level of paranormal belief/reality testing and problem solving p162-164 7 6.5. Paranormal vs. conventional conjunction fallacy p164-166 6.5.1. Australian Sheep-Goat Scale (ASGS) p166 6.5.2. New paranormal measure (MMUpbs) p167 6.5.3. Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS) p167 6.5.4. Reality Testing (RT) p167-168 6.6. Evaluation of new paranormal measure p169-172 6.7. Phase III discussion p172-173 6.8. Conclusion p174 Chapter 7. Phase IV – Validation of MMUpbs (paranormal belief and mental toughness) p175-194 7.1. General overview of phase IV p175 7.1.1. Introduction and background to phase IV p175-178 7.2. Method p179-181 7.2.1. Respondents p179 7.2.2. Materials (instruments) p179-181 7.2.3. Mental Toughness Questionnaire 48 (MTQ48) p179 7.2.4. Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS) p180 7.2.5. Paranormal experiences p180 7.2.6. Paranormal belief factors p180-181 7.2.7. Belief in the paranormal p180-181 7.2.8. Procedure and ethical consideration p181 7.3. Results p182-187 7.3.1. Data analysis p182 7.3.2. Reliability and scale descriptives p182-183 7.3.3. Full scale paranormal beliefs and mental toughness p183-184 7.3.4. Paranormal subscales and mental toughness p184-187 7.4. Phase IV Discussion p187-192 7.5. Future ideas for research p192-193 7.6. Conclusion p193 Chapter 8. General Discussion p195-211 8.1. Methodological interest p195 8 8.1.1. Overview p195-196 8.1.2. Reversed items p196-198 8.1.3. Item generation and question phrasing p198-199 8.1.4. Scale development: Global measures p200-201 8.1.5. Single item measurement vs. multi item measurement p201-203 8.1.6. Internet mediated research p203-204 8.1.7. The social and temporal nature of belief and paranormality p204-205 8.2. Future developments p205-211 8.2.1. Potential for generation of new items p205-206 8.2.2. Effectiveness of scales p206-207 8.2.3. Nature of paranormal believers p207-208 8.3. Ideas for future research p208-210 8.3.1. Qualitative vs. quantitative methods: An important annexation p208-210 8.4. Applications p210 8.4.1. Real world application: Cognitive implications of MMUpbs p210-211 Chapter 9. General conclusion: Further developments p212-222 9.1.