IR-00-031 / May 2000 Population–Development–Environment in Namibia Background Readings Edited by Ben Fuller and Isolde Prommer University of Namibia International Institute for Multidisciplinary Research and Consultancy Centre IIASA Applied Systems Analysis Cover photos by Geert Van der Eecken; from top to bottom: 1. Mother with child: Kavango region near Rundu city (January 1995) 2. Rock paintings at Twyfelfontein, Kunene region (November 1992) 3. Welwitschia mirabilis, Erongo region (November 1992) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 • A-2361 Laxenburg • Austria Telephone: (+43 2236) 807 342 • Fax: (+43 2236) 71313 E-mail: [email protected] • Internet: www.iiasa.ac.at Interim Report IR-00-031 Population-Development-Environment in Namibia Background Readings Ben Fuller and Isolde Prommer, Editors [email protected] [email protected] Approved by Wolfgang Lutz ([email protected]) Leader, Population Project May 31, 2000 Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Population–Development–Environment in Namibia Background Readings Edited by Ben Fuller and Isolde Prommer IR-00-31 May 2000 Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria Telephone: +43 2236 807 Telefax: +43 2236 71313 Web: www.iiasa.ac.at ANGOLA ZAMBIA Kunen e R. Ruacana Oshikango Katima Mulilo Æ Æ ´³ Æ Oshakati Æ Rundu Kavango R. Za mbe zi R. Æ Æ Æ Opuwo Æ ´³ ´³ ´³ ´³ ´³ Ngoma Namutoni Sesfontein Æ Æ Æ ÆTsu meb Æ Tsu mkwe ´³ Æ Æ Grootfontain Æ Outjo Æ Okava ng o Delta Khorixas Æ ´³Æ ÆOkakarar a Omarur u NAMIBIA Æ ´³ Okahandja ´³ÆÆ Æ Gobabis Æ ÆArandis ´³ Æ Buitepos Swakopmund Æ Æ Æ WINDHOEK Walvis Bay Æ Rehoboth BOTSWANA Æ Aranos Æ ´³ Æ Æ Mariental Maltahöhe Æ Æ Tse s BethanienÆ Keetmanshoop Lüderitz Æ Æ Æ ´³ ATLANTIC OCEAN KarasburgÆ WarmbadÆ Oranjemund Æ Orange R. SOUTH AFRICA SER - Socio-Ecologial Regions, as defined for the PDE Project. For details see Introduction. SER A: SER B: SER C: LEGEND: 1 Omusati 7 Kunene 13 Komas _____ 2 Oshana 8 Otjozondjupa Administrative 3 Oshangwena 9 Omaheke Region 4 Oshikoto 10 Erongo 5 Kavango 11 Hardap Cities 6 Caprivi 12 Karas - - - Rivers Contents Foreword v Acknowledgements vi About the Contributors vii List of Acronyms and Technical Notes xvi Introduction 1 Ben Fuller and Isolde Prommer Part I: Environment Biodiversity and Conservation in Namibia into the 21st Century 17 Grant Wardell-Johnson Water Resources of Namibia 47 Molly E. Hellmuth Report on Water Resources and Water Resource Management in Namibia 65 Robert K. Davis Land Reform in Namibia 75 Lazarus Hangula A Freedom Uncommon: The Development and Consequences of Namibian Claim to its Exclusive Economic Zone 93 Lauren E. Hale Inland Fisheries Development in Namibia: Evaluating Alternative Paths For Sustainable Development 109 Daniel O. Okeyo Part II: Development Government Policies on Sustainable Development in Namibia 135 Rob Blackie Education in Namibia 153 Riikka Shemeikka iii Alternative Paths of Economic Development in Namibia 165 Dirk Hansohm Emergy Evaluation of Water Supply Alternatives for Windhoek, Namibia 185 Andrés A. Buenfil A Strategy for Appropriate Technology for Development in Namibia – Recent University of Namibia Initiatives: Selected Examples and Call for Collaboration 203 A.T. Critchley, F.J. Molloy, J.D. van Harmelen, and K.E. Mshigeni Part III: Population Namibia’s Population Policy 231 O.O. Arowolo Fertility in Namibia 253 O.O. Arowolo Migration as a Population Dynamic in Namibia 273 Wade Pendleton and Bruce Frayne A Model for Studying the Impact of HIV/AIDS on the Size and Structure of the Namibian Population 297 Oddvar Jakobsen iv Foreword Namibia is a young country with great development opportunities and some serious challenges. It is unique in many respects and shares important features with other countries in the southern African region. This caught the attention of an international group of scientists at IIASA, who are dedicated to the scientific analysis and better understanding of the relationship between population change and environmental factors, which is both a highly complex and a highly ideological issue. We decided to approach this difficult issue through a series of in-depth case studies that should serve a dual purpose: contribute to the more general understanding of the nature of population– environment interactions and at the same time produce a scientific tool (model) that assists local scholars and planners to assess the long-term consequences of alternative scenarios/policies in the context of sustainable human development. IIASA was very fortunate to find in the Multidisciplinary Research and Consultancy Centre of the University of Namibia a highly competent and motivated partner to jointly carry out this challenging in-depth study on Namibia. We are also grateful for the financial support provided by the European Commission (DG Development). This allowed for an active interaction that has already resulted in many products and is expected to yield many more fruits in the future as the approach of applying multidisciplinary science-based models is expected to further impact on the discussion about alternative sustainable development policies. The project on Namibia, which has been carried out simultaneously with a similar project on Botswana, is now nearing the end of its three-year term. The main scientific output will be a refereed book tentatively titled “AIDS, Diamonds and Water: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development in Namibia and Botswana.” Since not all of the rich materials collected for Namibia under the project can be included in this book, it was decided to publish some of the other materials in the present collection of background papers, jointly published by IIASA and UNAM, and edited by Ben Fuller of UNAM and Isolde Prommer of IIASA. I would like to take this opportunity to thank all the people at UNAM, IIASA and elsewhere who have contributed to the project in different forms. It has been a pioneering effort, since not much has been published on population, development and environment in Namibia. I am sure that the unique collection of materials in this compendium will prove to be very useful to people interested in Namibia, both within the country and around the world. Wolfgang Lutz Leader, IIASA Population Project May 2000 v Acknowledgements This publication is part of the project “Evaluating Alternative Paths for Sustainable Development in Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique,” which was conducted at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in collaboration with the Multidisciplinary Research and Consultancy Centre at the University of Namibia (Dr. Ben Fuller, Namibia Co-ordinator). The project is funded by the European Commission, DG VIII – Directorate General for Development (Contract No. B7-6200-96- 18/VIII/ENV). The editors wish to thank the European Commission (DG Development), all colleagues and friends at IIASA, the University of Namibia and elsewhere for their contributions, critical comments and support in making this publication possible. We are grateful to Ms. Marilyn Brandl for the editing and layout. We further wish to thank Mr. Geert Van der Eecken for the cover design, which he donated as a token of his friendship. vi About the Contributors (in alphabetical order) Mr. Oladele O. Arowolo 15 Hahnemann Street, P.O. Box 96112 Windhoek, Namibia e-mail: [email protected] Prof. Arowolo graduated from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria, with a major in geography (minor in sociology and economics), and obtained his Masters and PhD in demography at the University of Pennsylvania, USA. He has taught at several universities in the US (Rutgers University, Temple University), in Nigeria (University of Ibadan; University of Ife; and Lagos State University) and at Addis Ababa University in Ethiopia. He has served as external examiner for undergraduate and post-graduate programs at the University of Jos, Nigeria; University of Lagos, Nigeria; Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Accra; and University of Botswana, Gaborone. He joined the United Nations International Labour Organization, Geneva, as Chief Technical Adviser in population planning and policies (1988-1999) to UNFPA-funded country projects on population policy formulation and on program development in Ethiopia; Kenya; and Namibia. All of these projects demanded expertise in institution building, technical assistance, training of national professionals, developing research agenda and conducting research on aspects of population and development, publishing reports, project monitoring and evaluation. As a university teacher and researcher, his main areas of concentration included demographic techniques, population and development interrelationships, fertility and mortality, and population dynamics, migration and urbanization, and social research methods; quantitative and qualitative methods. He is now a private consultant in population and development. His current research interests include population and development,