Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system, climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures By: Mohammad Mahtab Hossain Master Thesis Master of Water Resources and Environmental Management at Leibniz Universität Hannover Franzius-Institute of Hydraulic, Waterways and Coastal Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodetic Science Advisor: Dipl.-Ing. Knut Kraemer Examiners: Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. T. Schlurmann Dr.-Ing. N. Goseberg Submission date: 13.09.2012 Prof. Dr. Torsten Schlurmann Hannover, Managing Director & Chair 15 March 2012 Franzius-Institute for Hydraulic, Waterways and Coastal Engineering Leibniz Universität Hannover Nienburger Str. 4, 30167 Hannover GERMANY Master thesis description for Mr. Mahtab Hussein Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system, climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures The effects of global environmental change, including coastal flooding stem- ming from storm surges as well as reduced rainfall in drylands and water scarcity, have detrimental effects on countries and megacities in the costal regions worldwide. Among these, Bangladesh with its capital Dhaka is today widely recognised to be one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change and its triggered associated impacts. Natural hazards that come from increased rainfall, rising sea levels, and tropical cyclones are expected to increase as climate changes, each seri- ously affecting agriculture, water & food security, human health and shelter. It is believed that in the coming decades the rising sea level alone in parallel with more severe and more frequent storm surges and stronger coastal ero- sion will create more than 20 million people to migrate within Bangladesh itself (Black et al., 2011). Moreover, Bangladesh’s natural water resources are to a large part contaminated with arsenic contaminants because of the high arsenic contents in the soil. Up to 77 million people are exposed to toxic Nienburger Str. 4 30167 Hannover, Germany arsenic from drinking water (Reich, 2011). Ph. +49 (0)511 762-19021 Given that background, the current MSc thesis should collect indicators as Fax +49 (0)511 762-4002 well as assess and critically discuss the present and likely future state of the coastal system and establish strategies as well as solutions in regard to [email protected] www.fi.uni-hannover.de storm surges and coastal erosion effects in Bangladesh. Seite 1/5 Master thesis description for Mr. Mahtab Hussein Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures In order to conduct a holistic overview of the state of the system, possible climate change impacts and possible 'low regret' adaptation measures with special emphasis on storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh, the thesis should encompass and take into consideration the following aspects: . Description of the country Bangladesh in regard to the theme of the thesis, i.e. geography and climate, rough overview of economy and demographic structure. In-depth review of governmental structure including an institutional map- ping (mandate, experiences, capacities, etc.) of the most relevant institu- tions and governmental bodies, research institutes and universities in Bangladesh related to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in straight accordance to Djalante et al. (2012) carried out recently for Indonesia. Where are the missing links and what needs to be organized or tackled additionally? . Disaster history and experiences: When and what has been affected in the country and statistics of losses? What have been the lessons learned from these experiences? How and what experiences did federal govern- ment and local governments take action on creating “goog governance” structures in relation to climate change effects? What are the synergies in regard of the preparation and strategies to global change? . Summary of (joint) research projects and international development initia- tives in Bangladesh or in particular in Dhaka, what has been in focus and to which degree the results have been implemented into preparedness or adaptation programmes concerning DRR measures. Anticipated (direct) climate change impacts (Karim and Mimura, 2008; Madsen and Jakobsen, 2004), effects of SLR related to exposure and vul- nerability of the people and assets. What elements are at risk? . Anticipated (indirect) climate change related impacts concerning storm surges, and in consequences local sea states and wave action regarding Seite 2/5 Master thesis description for Mr. Mahtab Hussein Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures coastal erosion (now and then). Set-up and calibration of coastal see wave atlas by means of phase-averaging model (SWAN) in order to inte- grate current sea states and future projections of wave action to derive a trustworthy data base for the coastline and estuaries of Bangladesh. Tentative adaptation measures in relation to recent SREX report and possible solutions encompassing so-called "low-regret" adaptation meas- ures (technically, politically and socially) recently defined within the IPCC- Special Report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) From the work flow listed above, main scientific emphasis might be put on the part considering the coastal see wave atlas and is expected to account for about one third of the given working time of six months of the thesis. For completing this particular task apart from the other more literature review work, computational power as well as versions of SWAN, MATLAB and Ar- cGis will be made available for the student under supervision of the depicted examiners and advisor. Three printed versions of the thesis have to be delivered along with the digi- tal thesis and a well-arranged work data archive. The data archive has to contain all raw data, all used computational and MATLAB routines, simula- tion input files of all presented simulation runs together with the MATLAB post-processing routines and plots. The arranging of the routines for later work and the documentation of the work flow is part of the work and will thus be taken into account for the grad- ing. After the thesis is delivered, it will be presented in a talk with following discussion of 30 minutes to the examiners and advisor. Seite 3/5 Master thesis description for Mr. Mahtab Hussein Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures Literature Black et al., Migration as adaptation, NATURE, VOL 478, 2011, p. 449 Djalante, R., Thomalla, F., Sinapoy, M.S., Carnegie, M., Building resilience to natural hazards in Indonesia: progress and challenges in implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action, Natural Hazards, 2012, pp. 1-25. Karim, M.F., Mimura, N., Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh, Global Environmental Change, 2008, Vol. 18 (3), pp. 490-500. Madsen, H., Jakobsen, F., Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecast- ing in the northern Bay of Bengal, Coastal Engineering, 2004, Vol. 51 (4), pp. 277-296. Murty, T.S., Flather, R.A., Henry, R.F., The storm surge problem in the Bay of Bengal, Progress in Oceanography, 1986, Vol. 16 (4), pp. 195-233. Reich, S., Conflicting studies fuel arsenic debate, NATURE, VOL 478, 2011, p. 437 IPCC-SREX, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Ad- vance Climate Change Adaptation, Summary for policy makers, 2011 http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/ Date of issue: 15th March 2012 Closing date: 14th September 2012 1. Examiner 2. Examiner Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. T. Schlurmann Dr.-Ing. N. Goseberg Advisor Dipl.-Ing. Knut Kraemer Seite 4/5 Master thesis description for Mr. Mahtab Hussein Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures Seite 5/5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This thesis work has been done according to the requirement of the Master of Science degree of Water Resources and Environmental Management (WATENV), Faculty of Civil Engineering at Leibniz University Hannover, Germany. First of all, I give thanks to almighty Allah (God) who has given me the ability to complete the tasks. After that, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor, Dipl.-Ing. Knut Kraemer and examiners Dr.-Ing. N. Goseberg and Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. T. Schlurmann for their guidance, valuable suggestions, and insightful comments on my work. Special thanks to Dipl.-Ing. Nils Kerpen, who provided me an electronic key to work at the Franzius CIP-Pool at any time. I would like to express my appreciation to Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) for their help with data provision which was very vital for the completion of the required tasks. I am grateful to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for providing financial support and for giving me the opportunity to participate in the WATENV course. I wish to extend my sincere gratitude to my dearest friend Lojek Oliver, who generously made an effort to translate my abstract to German and Ellen Bonna who helped to check my grammatical errors. Last but not least, I would like to express my thanks to my family, wife, children, relatives, friends and my parents for their everlasting support and patience. Thank you