Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Osvaldo Kacef Chief, Economic Development Division Susana Malchik Officer-in-Charge Documents and Publications Division The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual publication prepared by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2010 edition was prepared under the supervision of Osvaldo Kacef, Chief of the Division; Jürgen Weller and Sandra Manuelito were responsible for its overall coordination. In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics and Economic Projections Division, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain, and the Commission’s country offices in Bogota, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C. The regional analyses were prepared by the following experts (in the order in which the subjects are presented): Osvaldo Kacef and Luis Felipe Jiménez (introduction), Juan Pablo Jiménez (fiscal policy), Rodrigo Cárcamo (monetary and exchange-rate policy), Sandra Manuelito (economic activity and investment and domestic prices), Jürgen Weller (employment and wages), and Luis Felipe Jiménez, Fernando Cantú and Claudio Aravena (external sector). The text boxes were prepared by Andrea Podestá and staff from the ECLAC subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, as well as the Disaster Assessment Unit and the Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division of ECLAC. The country notes are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Dillon Alleyne (Guyana and Jamaica), José Manuel Arroyo (Paraguay), Fernando Cantú (Ecuador), Rodrigo Cárcamo (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela), Stefan Edwards (Suriname), Álvaro Fuentes (Uruguay), Randolph Gilbert (Haiti), Michael Hendrickson (Bahamas and Belize), Luis Felipe Jiménez (Chile), Beverly Lugay (Eastern Caribbean Monetary Union), Sandra Manuelito (Peru), Rodolfo Minzer (Panama), Carlos Mussi (Brazil), Ramón Padilla (Costa Rica and Mexico), Benjamin Rae (Plurinational State of Bolivia), Juan Carlos Ramírez, Olga Lucía Acosta and Alejandra Corchuelo (Colombia), Adrián Ramos (Argentina), Juan Carlos Rivas (Guatemala), Indira Romero (Cuba), Kelvin Sergeant (Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago), Francisco Villareal (Dominican Republic and El Salvador) and Willy Zapata (Honduras and Nicaragua). Benjamin Rae coordinated the notes on the Caribbean countries; the economic projections were produced by Claudio Aravena, Fernando Cantú and Sandra Manuelito. Alejandra Acevedo, Vianka Aliaga, Leandro Cabello, Jazmín Chiu and Karen Martínez were responsible for the processing and presentation of the statistical data and graphical presentations. Notes In this publication, the term “country” is used to refer to territorial entities, whether these are States as understood by international law and practice or simply territories for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. The word “dollars” means United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Preliminary Overview: Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A point is used to indicate decimals. United Nations Publication ISBN: 978-92-1-121753-7 E-ISBN: 978-92-1-054544-0 ISSN: 1014-7802 LC/G.2480-P Sales No.: E.11.II.G.2 Copyright © United Nations, January 2011. All rights reserved Printed in Santiago, Chile Applications for the right to reproduce this work, either in whole or in part, should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, United States. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2010 3 Contents Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................9 Regional panorama ..................................................................................................................................................................11 Chapter I Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................13 A. The international context .........................................................................................................................................................14 B . Recent trends in the Latin American and Caribbean economies .............................................................................................16 1. Internal factors ..................................................................................................................................................................16 2. External factors .................................................................................................................................................................19 C. Macroeconomic policy ............................................................................................................................................................21 1. Fiscal policy ......................................................................................................................................................................21 2. Monetary and exchange-rate policy ..................................................................................................................................22 D. Prospects for 2011 and macroeconomic challenges beyond the short term ............................................................................23 Chapter II Macroeconomic policy ............................................................................................................................................................29 A. Fiscal policy ...........................................................................................................................................................................29 B. Monetary and exchange-rate policy ........................................................................................................................................36 Chapter III Domestic performance ...........................................................................................................................................................41 A. Economic activity and investment ...........................................................................................................................................41 B. Domestic prices .......................................................................................................................................................................46 C. Employment and wages...........................................................................................................................................................47 Chapter IV The external sector ...................................................................................................................................................................51 A. The balance-of-payments current account ..............................................................................................................................51 1. The goods and services balance ........................................................................................................................................52 2. International prices and the terms of trade .......................................................................................................................54 3. The income and transfers balance ....................................................................................................................................55 B. The capital and financial account ............................................................................................................................................56 4 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) South America ...........................................................................................................................................................................59 Argentina .....................................................................................................................................................................................61 Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela ...................................................................................................................................................64 Brazil...............................................................................................................................................................................................66 Chile................................................................................................................................................................................................69 Colombia ........................................................................................................................................................................................72