Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 1 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION THE INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES OF THE CAUCASUS THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies Conflicts in the Caucasus: History, Present, and Prospects for Resolution Special Issue Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 CA&CC Press® SWEDEN 2 Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 FOUNDEDTHE CAUCASUS AND& GLOBALIZATION PUBLISHED BY THE INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES OF THE CAUCASUS Registration number: M-770 Ministry of Justice of Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press® Sweden Registration number: 556699-5964 Registration number of the journal: 1218 Editorial Council Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council (Baku) ISMAILOV Tel/fax: (994 12) 497 12 22 E-mail: [email protected] Kenan Executive Secretary (Baku) ALLAHVERDIEV Tel: (994 – 12) 596 11 73 E-mail: [email protected] Azer represents the journal in Russia (Moscow) SAFAROV Tel: (7 495) 937 77 27 E-mail: [email protected] Nodar represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) KHADURI Tel: (995 32) 99 59 67 E-mail: [email protected] Ayca represents the journal in Turkey (Ankara) ERGUN Tel: (+90 312) 210 59 96 E-mail: [email protected] Editorial Board Nazim Editor-in-Chief (Azerbaijan) MUZAFFARLI Tel: (994 – 12) 510 32 52 E-mail: [email protected] (IMANOV) Vladimer Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Georgia) PAPAVA Tel: (995 – 32) 24 35 55 E-mail: [email protected] Akif Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Azerbaijan) ABDULLAEV Tel: (994 – 12) 596 11 73 E-mail: [email protected] Volume 6 IssueMembers 1 2012 of Editorial Board: 3 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION Zaza D.Sc. (History), Professor, Corresponding member of the Georgian National Academy ALEKSIDZE of Sciences, head of the scientific department of the Korneli Kekelidze Institute of Manuscripts (Georgia) Mustafa AYDIN Rector of Kadir Has University (Turkey) Irina BABICH D.Sc. (History), Leading research associate of the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia) Douglas Professor, Chair of Political Science Department, Providence College (U.S.A.) W. BLUM Svante Professor, Research Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Silk Road Studies E. CORNELL Program, Johns Hopkins University-SAIS (U.S.A.) Parvin D.Sc. (History), Professor, Baku State University (Azerbaijan) DARABADI Murad D.Sc. (Political Science), Editor-in-Chief, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Journal of ESENOV Social and Political Studies (Sweden) Jannatkhan Deputy Director, Institute of Strategic Studies of the Caucasus (Azerbaijan) EYVAZOV Rauf Ph.D. (Psychology), Leading research associate of the Center for Strategic Studies GARAGOZOV under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic (Azerbaijan) Archil Ph.D. (Geography), Senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and GEGESHIDZE International Studies (Georgia) Elmir Director of the Department of Geoculture, Institute of Strategic Studies of the GULIEV Caucasus (Azerbaijan) Shamsaddin D.Sc.(Economy), Professor, Rector of the Azerbaijan State Economic University HAJIEV (Azerbaijan) Jamil HASANLI D.Sc. (History), Professor at Khazar University (Azerbaijan) Stephen Professor, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Mount Holyoke College (U.S.A.) F. JONES Akira Ph.D., History of Central Asia & the Caucasus, Program Officer, The Sasakawa MATSUNAGA Peace Foundation (Japan) Roger Senior Research Fellow, Department of Politics and International Relations, University MCDERMOTT of Kent at Canterbury; Senior Research Fellow on Eurasian military affairs within the framework of the Eurasia Program of the Jamestown Foundation, Washington (U.K.) Roin D.Sc. (History), Professor, Academician of the Georgian National Academy of METREVELI Sciences, President of the National Committee of Georgian Historians (Georgia) Fuad Ph.D. (Economy), Counselor of the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the MURSHUDLI International Bank of Azerbaijan (Azerbaijan) Michael Associate professor, Near Eastern Studies Department, Princeton University (U.S.A.) A. REYNOLDS Alexander Professor, President of Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies RONDELI (Georgia) Mehdi SANAIE Professor, Tehran University, Director, Center for Russian Studies (Iran) Avtandil D.Sc. (Economy), Professor, Tbilisi University of International Relations, Corresponding SILAGADZE member of the Georgian National Academy of Sciences (Georgia) S. Frederick Professor, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University-SAIS STARR (U.S.A.) James Professor, Director of the International and Regional Studies Program, Washington V. WERTSCH University in St. Louis (U.S.A.) Alla D.Sc. (History), Professor, head of the Mediterranean-Black Sea Center, The Institute YAZKOVA of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia) Stanislav D.Sc. (Economy), Senior researcher, The Institute of World Economy and International ZHUKOV Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia) The materials that appear in the journal do not necessarily reflect the Editorial Board and the Editors’ opinion Editorial Office: THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION © The Caucasus & Globalization, 2012 98 Alovsat Guliyev, AZ1009 © CA&CC Press®, 2012 Baku, Azerbaijan © The Institute of Strategic Studies of WEB: www.ca-c.org the Caucasus, 2012 4 Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 Conflicts in the Caucasus: History, Present, and Prospects for Resolution Special Issue CONTENTS PREFACE Nazim MUZAFFARLI 7 GEOPOLITICS THE REGIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL CAUCASUS: POLITICAL STRUCTURE Jannatkhan AND CONFLICTS EYVAZOV 8 THE FORCE OF LAW AND THE USE OF FORCE Kamran IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SHAFIEV 22 CONFLICTS IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE: Alla AN ABKHAZIAN CASE-STUDY YAZKOVA 32 Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 5 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION LEGITIMACY OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF “THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH REPUBLIC” IN COMPLIANCE Przemys³aw WITH SOVIET LEGISLATION ADAMCZEWSKI 39 GREAT POWER PREDICAMENTS AND THEIR ROLE Hans-Joachim IN THE CAUCASUS CONFLICTS SPANGER 48 THE “VULTURES” OF Grigory THE CAUCASIAN PEOPLES TROFIMCHUK 57 GEO-ECONOMICS ECONOMIC COMPONENT OF THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN Vladimer CONFLICT PAPAVA 61 THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PROTRACTED CONFLICTS: ABKHAZIA, Giulia SOUTH OSSETIA, AND PRELZ VIOLENCE MITIGATION OLTRAMONTI 72 SOUTH CAUCASIAN ENERGY TRANSIT: PROBLEMS AND Alexander PROSPECTS KRYLOV 81 GEOCULTURE THE FUTURE OF RELIGION IN THE CENTRAL CAUCASUS: FROM THE SOVIET UNION’S DISINTEGRATION Elmir TO THE NEW CAUCASIAN POLICY GULIEV 89 THE ABKHAZIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT: THE PAST AND Lyubov PRESENT OF ETHNOCULTURAL TIES SOLOVYEVA 111 6 Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION GEOHISTORY “THE IRANIAN EPOPEE” OF THE BOLSHEVIKS: THE DEEPENING CONFLICT IN THE SOUTHERN CASPIAN Jamil (1920-1921) HASANLI 119 EVOLUTION OF RUSSIA’S GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS AND PRIORITIES Oleg IN TRANSCAUCASIA KUZNETSOV 145 Volume 6 Issue 1 2012 7 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION P R E F A C E Dear Readers! The Institute of Strategic Studies of the Caucasus (ISSC) is preparing for an international con- ference called “Conflicts in the Caucasus: History, Present, and Prospects for Resolution.” The par- ticipants in this Conference will discuss not only those conflicts that have already led to wars and local armed clashes, but also the so-called latent conflicts, and since the ISSC’s understanding of the Caucasus comprises a much wider area than is generally accepted, the geographic range of topics has proven extremely extensive. Unfortunately, the Caucasus, this relatively small but incredibly rich and geostrategically im- portant area, is currently one of the most conflict-prone regions of the world. More than twenty years have passed, but the Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazian, and South Ossetian conflicts in the Central Cau- casus and the Chechen conflict in the Northern Caucasus are still fraught with the risk of a resumption in hostilities. Several other ethnopolitical problems in the northern (the Russian Caucasus), south- eastern (the Iranian Caucasus), and southwestern (the Turkish Caucasus) areas not only remain unre- solved, but are gradually worsening and could become severely aggravated in the near future. The entire Caucasus continues to quietly simmer, ready to erupt at any moment, while it is clear that suppressed conflicts are often more explosive than open ones. Holding a discussion of the conflicts in the Caucasus is relevant not only and not so much in the academic respect as in the political-applied and practical context. Judging from the number of appli- cations from potential participants, it is clear that the Conference is arousing great interest among the expert community, and not only at the regional, but also at the international level. We have received applications from more than 30 countries. Specialists in conflict proneness, the history of regional conflicts, the political and other aspects of their settlement and prevention, as well as in post-conflict rehabilitation of the affected territories have submitted more than 100 reports to the Conference Or- ganizing Committee. Many of them are interesting not only for a narrow range of conflict specialists, but also for a wider circle of experts, which has prompted us to publish a special volume of The Cau- casus & Globalization. All four issues of our journal for 2012 have been compiled from Conference reports. We hope that they will be interesting and beneficial not only for the expert community, but also for state offi- cials making political