RESTREINT UE/EU RESTRICTED FM EAS COREU TO ALL COREU NORMAL CFSP/EAS/0087/18 290118 1608Z ACRONYM COASI COPAR SUBJECT COASI COPAR - INDIA - Political Update 23 January 2018 TEXT Subject: COASI - COPAR / INDIA - Political Update 23 January 2018 The EEAS is pleased to circulate the political update prepared by EU Delegation in New Delhi. QUOTE Summary: EEAS's DSG Serrano visited Delhi on 16-17 January to participate in India's Strategic Forum, the Raisina Dialogue, and to present recent developments in the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy. Netanyahu's visit (January 14-18) highlighted India's close relations with Israel and was aimed at broadening ties beyond defence cooperation. The recently released US National Defence Strategy embraces Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships, and implicitly calls for stronger cooperation with India. On January 18, India conducted a successful test of its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), with a range capable of reaching China's coastal cities. India has become the 43rd member of the Australia group, an informal forum of countries which seeks non-proliferation of chemical and biological weapons (CBW). After joining the Wassenaar Arrangement in 2017 and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MRCT) in 2016 it is likely to focus its energy now on its bid for membership in the Nuclear Supplier's Group. Repeated violations of the ceasefire along the Line of Control (January 2018 may feature the highest number since 2003) increased tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has urged both sides to turn Kashmir into a "bridge of friendship" and not a "battleground". Despite relentless and sometimes violent protests by Hindu fringe groups against what they perceive as an insult to their caste and a distortion of history as well as bans announced by several States, the film Padmaavaat is scheduled to be released nation-wide on 25 January after a number of cuts and adaptations. Details: DSG Serrano visits Delhi to present CSDP developments EEAS's Deputy Secretary General (DSG), Pedro Serrano, visited New Delhi on 16-17 January, where he used his participation as a panellist at the Raisina Dialogue - India's leading conference of foreign affairs with the ambition to become Asia's major Strategic Forum - to highlight the progress made in tackling the challenges facing the EU and to present recent developments in the Common Security and Defence Policy, notably the activation of a Permanent Structured Cooperation on Defence (PESCO). During his visit, DSG Serrano met with the new Deputy National Security Advisor and Secretary West of the Ministry of External Affairs to promote closer EU-India security cooperation. In addition, Mr Serrano delivered the keynote speech at Workshop launching the second phase of the twinning of EU and Indian Think Tanks under a public diplomacy project. Netanyahu's visit aims to broaden Indo-Israeli ties Netanyahu conducted a successful state visit to India on January 14-18 - the first by an Israeli PM in 15 years. Relations between the two countries are in good shape but still largely dependent on defence cooperation: Israel is India's third largest arms supplier and India accounts for an estimated 40% of Israeli arms exports. Although defence cooperation will continue to be the backbone of Indo-Israeli ties, both countries attempted to give a positive spin by focusing on two areas were cooperation has flourished in recent years: technology transfer in the agricultural and water management fields. In addition, MoUs were signed to deepen bilateral engagement in the energy, technology and cybersecurity are areas were both countries are likely to become more engaged in the future. Since coming into power, Modi has tried hard to de-hyphenate India's relationship with Israel from that with Palestine. However, to appease Muslim countries in light of the US's new policy towards Jerusalem, India has reaffirmed its support towards a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians and Modi is expected to visit Palestine in February. US National Defence Strategy embraces Indo-Pacific alliances Although India is not mentioned in the executive summary of the US' National Defence Strategy (NDS) released on January 19th (the document in itself remains classified material), by embracing the Indo-Pacific concept and the need to "expand Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships", the NDS implicitly calls for closer US-India defence links. The NDS also singles out that China's "military modernisation, influence operations, and predatory economics" aims "to coerce neighboring countries" (the latter widely assumed to be a criticism of the Belt and Road Initiative) which is in line with India's military and political thinking. The NDS also confirms the emerging view among the Quad (Australia-India- Japan-US) that China is the main disruptive force in the region (publicly mentioned by the navy chiefs of the four countries at a panel held within the Raisina dialogue). However, India will be less comfortable with the NDS's other target: Russia, the country's historical partner and, by most accounts, still the main source of India's defence imports. Meanwhile major US and India think tanks (The Heritage Foundation, Observer Research Foundation, Hudson Institute) released a report advocating a strengthened Indo-US partnership to shape a peaceful, prosperous and security Indo- Pacific, deemed a region that matters to the whole world. India successfully conducts ICBM test On January 18, India conducted a successful test of its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a nuclear-capable Agni-5. The missile, with a range of about 5,500km, could reach Chinese coastal cities as well as adding to the Indian arsenal that could potentially hit Pakistan. By some accounts the Agni-5 ICBM has been tested five times since 2012, and this latest test is thought to be a pre-induction trial before it is effectively deployed. Some analysts believe that another longer-range, bigger-payload Agni-6 ICBM, capable of carrying multiple warheads could be under development, although the Indian authorities have not confirmed these reports. India's growing nuclear ICBM capability is likely to lead China to step up its efforts to deploy a strategic missile defence system. It is worth noting that India joins Australia Group The day after its army tested its most powerful ICBM missile, India was accepted as the 43rd member of the Australia group, an informal forum of countries which seeks to ensure that exports do not contribute to the development of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) by other states or by terrorist groups. In the last two years India has stepped its efforts to be sign up to international/multilateral non-proliferation regimes: in 2016 it acceded to two missile non- proliferation treaties - The Hague Code of Conduct and the Missile Technology Control Regime - and just last month it joined the Wassenaar export control regime. By joining these regimes India intends to build its credentials as a responsible power, especially at a time when it is building its defence capabilities, and to signal that it is willing to contribute to international security by adhering to the strict non-proliferation standards. India is now likely to turn its attention again its big for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and to put more pressure on international partners to support its membership (although China - not a member of the Australia Group - is likely to continue blocking its entry into that system). Repeated violations of India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement leaves many dead Tensions are on the rise between Islamabad and Delhi as they blame one another for repeated violations of the ceasefire across the line of control that divides Kashmir. In the latest round of violations, on January 18 ten people were killed and 50 injured while 1000 people reportedly flee their villages located close to the border and sought shelter in rehabilitation camps. Over 100 are believed to have died on both sides since the beginning of the year. The strains between the two neighbours have led Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti urge both sides to turn Kashmir into a bridge of friendship and not let it turn into a battleground. In another recent development, the National Investigation Agency presented charges against 12 persons before a court in New Delhi on 17 January including Lashkar e Toiba chief Hafiz Sayeed and Hizbul Mujahidin chief Syed Salahuddin in a case related to funding terrorist and secessionist activities in Kashmir. Violent protests by Hindu fringe groups against film Padmaavaat While freedom of expression is guaranteed by the constitution, there has recently been an increasing trend towards censorship of books and films perceived as tarnishing Hindu/caste pride with traditional, ultra-conservative groups coming centre-stage. After several months of protests and debates, Padmaavaat, a cinematographic free adaptation of a 16th century epic poem, portraying the romance of the eponymous Rajput princess from Rajasthan finally received (after a number of cuts) the certification from the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC), thus overruling the ban that had been imposed in several States (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana - all ruled by the BJP) and is to be released nationally on 25 January. The film was caught in a political storm that spiralled across several States with fringe groups such as the Karni Sena (a Hindu right-wing group defending specific caste interests, namely that of Rajputs - a warrior caste) resorting to vandalism in protest against what they denounced as a distortion of historical facts and an insult to their caste. In further escalation of tensions, Senior advocate Harish Salve who represented the producer in the Supreme Court against the ban and argued that States have no power to prevent the screening of a film which has received the CBFC assent, reportedly received threats from anonymous sources.