“CAROL I” NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY STRATEGIC STUDIES No. 3-4[68-69]/2018 Academic quarterly acknowledged by CNATDCU, Indexed in CEEOL, ProQuest, EBSCO, WorldCat and ROAD ISSN international databases “CAROL I” NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY PUBLISHING HOUSE BUCHAREST, ROMANIA IMPACT STRATEGIC Nr. 3-4/2018 STRATEGIC IMPACT EDITORIAL COUNCIL Gheorghe CALOPĂREANU, Ph.D. Professor, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania, Chairman Daniel DUMITRU, Ph.D. Professor, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania Valentin DRAGOMIRESCU, Ph.D. Professor, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania Ion PURICEL, Ph.D. Professor, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania Florian CÎRCIUMARU, Ph.D. Lecturer, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania Florian RĂPAN, Ph.D. Professor, “Dimitrie Cantemir” Christian University, Romania Florin DIACONU, Ph.D. Associate Professor, University of Bucharest, Romania Dariusz KOZERAWSKI, Ph.D. Professor, National Defence University, Poland Bohuslav PRIKRYL, Ph.D. Professor, National Defence University, Czech Republic Pavel NECAS, Ph.D. Professor Eng., University of Security Management, Slovakia John L. CLARKE, Ph.D. Professor, “George C. Marshall” European Centre for Security Studies, Germany Ilias ILIOPOULOS, Ph.D. Professor, Naval War College, Greece Adrian GHEORGHE, Ph.D. Professor Eng., Old Dominion University, USA Georgi DIMOV, Ph.D. Associate Professor, “Rakovski” National Defence College, Bulgaria John F. TROXELL, Research Professor, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Gabor BOLDIZSÁR, Ph.D., National University of Public Service, Hungary Peter TÁLAS, Ph.D., National University of Public Service, Hungary Igor SOFRONESCU, Ph.D. Associate Professor, “Alexandru cel Bun” Military Academy, Republic of Moldova SCIENTIFIC BOARD Visarion NEAGOE, Ph.D., Professor Mirela ATANASIU, Ph.D., Senior Researcher Dan˗Lucian PETRESCU, Ph.D., Lecturer Cristian BĂHNĂREANU, Ph.D., Senior Researcher Marius-Titi POTÎRNICHE, Ph.D., Researcher Janos BESENYO, Ph.D., Associate Professor Alexandra SARCINSCHI, Ph.D., Senior Researcher Cristina BOGZEANU, Ph.D., Senior Researcher Mihai ZODIAN, Ph.D., Researcher Ruxandra BULUC, Ph.D., Associate Professor Ecaterina MAȚOI, Ph.D. Junior Lecturer EDITORS Contact address: Editor in Chief: Florian CÎRCIUMARU, Ph.D., Lecturer Panduri Street, no. 68-72, 5th District, Bucharest Deputy Editor in Chief: Daniela RĂPAN, Ph.D., Researcher Phone: +4021. 319.56.49; Fax: +4021. 319.57.80 Website: https://cssas.unap.ro E-mail: [email protected] Disclaimer: Opinions expressed within published materials belong strictly to authors and do not represent the position of CDSSS/ “Carol I” NDU. The accuracy of the English version of the articles falls entirely in the authors’ responsibility. Authors are fully responsible for their articles’ content, according to the provisions of Law no. 206/2004 regarding good conduct in scientific research, technological development and innovation. ISSN 1841-5784; ISSN-L 1841-5784; e-ISSN: 1842-9904 2 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 3-4/2018 STRATEGIC IMPACT CONTENTS EDITOR’S NOTE Florian CÎRCIUMARU, Ph.D. ..................................................................................................... 5 POLITICAL ̶ MILITARY TOPICALITY Trump Doctrine. “The Principled Realism” ............................................................................. 7 Iulian CHIFU, Ph.D.; Teodor FRUNZETI, Ph.D. The Picture of International Relations in Southeastern Europe Teodor BADIU............................................................................................................................. 18 DEFENCE AND SECURITY CONCEPTS National Resilience – Strategic Option of State Actors to Adapt to Hybrid Threats Visarion NEAGOE, Ph.D., Professor Cristian BĂRBULESCU............................................................................................................... 32 Dan˗Lucian PETRESCU, Ph.D., Lecturer Marius-Titi POTÎRNICHE, Ph.D., Researcher GEOPOLITICS AND GEOSTRATEGIES: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Alexandra SARCINSCHI, Ph.D., Senior Researcher Mihai ZODIAN, Ph.D., Researcher Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East Proxy Wars Ecaterina MAȚOI, Ph.D. Junior Lecturer János BESENYŐ, Ph.D.; Adrián CSAJKA-VÁNDOR................................................................ 42 Water Conflicts. Case Study: Lake Chad Conflict Akos TRESZKAI.......................................................................................................................... 54 DYNAMICS OF THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT October - December 2018 MENA ̶ US Military Withdrawal from Syria. Signals, Motivations and Possible Consequences in the Medium and Long Term Mirela ATANASIU, Ph.D. ............................................................................................................ 63 Russian Campaign in Africa – Results and Implications. The Russian- Ukrainian Conflict Marius-Titi POTÎRNICHE, Ph.D. ................................................................................................ 67 Western Balkans – Euro-Atlantic Route and Dissensions Cristina BOGZEANU, Ph.D. ....................................................................................................... 73 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 3-4/2018 3 STRATEGIC IMPACT Brexit – the Tip of the Iceberg of European Challenges Cristina BOGZEANU, Ph.D. ...................................................................................................... 75 BOOK REVIEW Cognitive, Argumentative and Discourse Analysis in Intelligence, by Ruxandra BULUC, Ph.D. Cristina BOGZEANU, Ph.D........................................................................................................... 78 GUIDE FOR AUTHORS ............................................................................................................ 81 4 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 3-4/2018 EDITOR'S NOTE EDITOR’S NOTE The current edition in 2018, no. 3 and no. 4 (68-69) comprises a collection of five articles, to which add the section Dynamics of the security environment, Book review and the traditional Guide for authors. The journal opens with the rubric Political-Military Topicality, where we have included an article signed by Iulian Chifu, PhD, Associate Professor, together with Teodor Frunzeti, PhD, Professor, regarding principled realism, concept that is found in the doctrine of US President Donald Trump, followed by an analysis on the picture of international relations of South-Eastern Europe, written by Mr. Teodor Badiu, MA Student. In the next section, Defence and Security Concepts, Mr. Cristian Bărbulescu, Ph.D. Student, shares with us his research on national resilience seen as strategic option of state actors to adapt to hybrid threats. Next, at the rubric Geopolitics and Geostrategies ̶ Trends and Perspectives, we have grouped two articles ̶ in the first article, Mr. János Besenyö, Ph.D. and Adrián Csajka-Vándor as co-author, deal with the issue of Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East proxy wars, and, in the second article, Mr. Akos Treszkai addresses the issue of water conflicts, and particularizes with the case study on Lake Chad. In this issue, we would like to point out the inclusion, in the pages of the journal, of a new section, Dynamics of the Security Environment (DSE), which is a CDSSS initiative meant to provide timely assessments on recent developments or events in the field of security. Issued in October 2015 as a freestanding publication, exclusively online, every two months, the Dynamics of the Security Environment was included in Strategic Impact to ease not only a more efficient dissemination of these assessments, but also to cover a wider time horizon, thus being able to identify relevant trends depending on the topics or areas of strategic interest. Therefore, under this heading, the CDSSS research team publishes analyses and evaluations of some major events, evolutions or trends, with an impact on the international and regional security environment and with relevance for the area of strategic interest for Romania. In the current edition, DSE is structured in four sub-chapters, as follows: Mrs. Mirela Atanasiu, Ph.D. Senior Researcher, addresses the issue of US military withdrawal from Syria, from the points of view of signals, motivations and possible consequences in the medium and long term. Mr. Marius Potîrniche, Ph.D. Researcher, analyses the implications and consequences of the Russian campaign in Africa and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and Mrs. Cristina Bogzeanu, Ph.D. Senior Researcher, brings to our attention two contemporary issues, namely the Western Balkans and from the point of view of the Euro-Atlantic route and dissensions, and Brexit, viewed as the tip of the iceberg of European challenges. In this edition’s Book Review, we wish to bring to the attention of our readers a work entitled Cognitive, argumentative and discourse analysis in intelligence, written by Ruxandra Buluc, PhD, Associate Professor, through the review made by our colleague, Cristina Bogzeanu. In the end, we would like to point out, as always, the Guide for Authors, a compulsory reading for those who wish to disseminate the results of their research in our journal. For those who open Strategic Impact for the first time, we mention that the journal is an open access publication of the Centre for Defence and Security Strategic Studies within “Carol I” National Defence University and is a prestigious scientific journal in the field of military science, information STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 3-4/2018