2018 disputes non-violent crises violent crises limited wars wars No. 27 Copyright © 2019 HIIK All rights reserved. Printed in Heidelberg, Germany. The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK), associated with the Institute of Political Science of Heidelberg University, is a registered non-profit association. It is dedicated to the research, evaluation, and documentation of political conflicts worldwide. The HIIK evolved from the 1991 research project COSIMO (Conflict Simulation Model), led by Prof. Dr. Frank R. Pfetsch, University of Heidelberg, and financed by the German Research Foundation (DFG). For more information please visit our website: www.hiik.de HIIK Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2018 Analyzed Period: 01/01/18 – 12/31/18 PREFACE With the 27th edition of the Conflict Barometer, teh H IIK continues its annual series of reports covering political conflicts worldwide. The global political conflict panorama in 2018 was marked by reverse trends. While the overall number of wars clearly decreased, the number of limited wars significantly increased. In Asia, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa, wars de-escalated, such as in Myanmar, Ukraine, DR Congo, and South Sudan. In contrast, three limited wars intensified to full-scale wars in the Middle East Northern Africa (MENA) region, seeing escalations on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, in Syria’s Afrin region, and in the conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan’s Workers’ Party (PKK). In spite of these changes, many conflicts maintained their intensity, such as the wars in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Libya, Central African Republic, Somalia, and Nigeria, or, for instance, the limited wars in Brazil, Colombia, and the Philippines. As in previous years, violent intrastate crises such as the opposition conflicts in Venezuela or Nicaragua continued to represent the most common conflict type and shaped the global conflict landscape. Moreover, non-violent or medium intensity interstate conflicts, for instance between the EU, USA, et al. and Russia or between India and Pakistan, have also been a central determinant of 2018. Finally, peace initiatives, for instance between Greece and Macedonia, in Ethiopia, or in South Sudan, aimed to pave the way for more peaceful future relations. In addition to our qualitative and quantitative conflict data, the Spotlight section introduced last year complements our core competencies with a focused analysis of issues related to political conflicts. The Spotlights in the Conflict Barometer 2018 present both region-focused and global perspectives. The former for example analyze social media as a recruitment strategy by Islamists in Indonesia and the transformative influence of peace initiatives in the Horn of Africa. The latter for instance demonstrate the importance of a gendered understanding of conflict, address vicious cycles between food insecurity and conflict, or elaborate how HIIK’s methodology tries to capture conflict dynamics. The Board of Directors would like to thank all editors and heads of regions who contributed to this report for their outstanding efforts, especially during the final stages of editing. Without their commitment, a publication like this would be impossible. When time resources seem to be more limited than ever, voluntary efforts spent on a project like this become even more extraordinary. The Board of Directors and the Editors in Chief Marilena Geugjes, Marko Hermsen, Franziska Linke, Mayely Müller, Vincent Stüber, Emil Unrath Heidelberg, February 2019 EUROPE Hanna Swartzendruber…………………(hss) Christopher Nowak……………………….(cno) Thomas Cranshaw…………………………...(tcr) Miya Takada……………………………………(mta) Jaeeun Paik……………………………………..(jpa) Tamta Kalandarishvili…………………….(tka) Juliana Trappmann…………………………..(jtr) Jonas Pfäffinger………………………………(jpf) Damyana Veleva……………………………(dve) Lisa Waldheim…………………………………(liw) Lukas Reimann…………………………………(lre) Emil Unrath…………………………………….(eun) Jonas Weber…………………………………..(jow) Theresa Rettner……………………………….(tre) Benjamin Alvensleben…………………..(bal) Thordis Weber……………………………….(twe) Nicola Röhm……………………………………(nrö) Cara Bien………………………………………….(cbi) Johanna Wecht………………………………(jwe) Nina Kathrin Rösler………………………..(nro) Jan Hendrik Blaß…………………………….(jhb) Tim te Wierik…………………………………..(ttw) Patrick Rüppel………………………………..(prü) Delphine Buffat…………………………….(dbu) Jana Winter………………………………………(jwi) Krishna Kumar Saha……………………….(ksa) Simone Drews…………………………………(sdr) Carina Zinlemos………………………………(czi) Annika Sauer…………………………………..(asa) Marilena Geugjes………………………….(mag) and the social studies class of the Peter Schmid…………………………………..(psc) Tijana Lujic……………………………………….(tlu) Lessing-Gymnasium Mannheim Thomas Schmid..……………………………..(ths) Pirmin Meier…………………………………..(pmr) Felix Scholl……………………………………….(fsc) Markus Christoph Müller……………(mcm) THE AMERICAS Patrick Senft……………………………………(pse) Viktoria Palm………………………………….(vpa) Sara Engelberg-Joumaa………………..(sen) Patrick Sogno………………………………….(pso) Sebastian Peter………………………………(spe) Ana Jimena Gonzalez……………………(ago) Hugo Sommer………………………………...(hso) Tabea Pottiez…………………………………..(tap) Maximilian Herrmann………………….(mah) Eva Süss…………………………………………..(evs) Fanny Schardey………………………………(fas) Claudia Pinzón……………………………….(cpn) Friederike Teller………………………………(fte) Christoph Schlemmer…………………….(crs) Charlotte Aebischer………………………(cae) Leonie Vandersee…………………………..(lva) Mona Sonnen………………………………..(mso) César Barreto……………………………………(cb) Stephanie Verlaan………………………….(stv) Maria Stalla……………………………………..(mst) Mara Bolay…………………………………….(mbo) Sofie Vetter…………………………………….(sov) Silvia Steininger………………………………(sst) Maximilian Brien……………………………(mbr) Nora Wagner………………………………….(nwa) Jacob Thaler……………………………………..(jth) Tarika Cintra……………………………………..(tci) Melina Topic…………………………………..(met) Martin Dudenhöffer…………………….(mdh) MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Caroline Trocka………………………………..(ctr) Franziska Gottwald………………………..(fgo) Siad Akkam……………………………………..(ska) Sofie Vetter…………………………………….(sov) Lena Jülich………………………………………..(lju) Anina Harter……………………………………(aht) Amelie Wieczorek………………………….(awi) Theresa Kofler…………………………………..(tk) Michael Hebeisen………………………..(mhb) Marie Krannich………………………………(mkr) Johannes Hermann………………………..(jhe) SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Santiago Moncada………………………..(smo) Ruben Ilyas………………………………………(rui) Marit Braunschweig……………………..(mab) Michael Männel…………………………...(mgm) Philipp Müller……………………………….(pmu) Anna Feiereisen……………………………..(anf) Birgit Kirsten Müller……………………..(bkm) Yasmin Al-Douri……………………………..(yad) Marcel Geißler………………………………(mge) Samed Sahin……………………………………(ssa) Nico Arnold……………………………………..(nar) Marilena Geugjes…………………………(mag) Anna-Lena Schmidt………………………(asm) Cecily Bernstorff…….……………………..(ceb) Emanuel Hermann……………………….(emh) Mario Wolf……………………………………(mwo) Eva Bitsch………………………………………...(ebi) Lennard Naumann………………………….(len) Mostafa Bostani……………………………(mob) Nikolaus Reeg…………………………………(nre) ASIA AND OCEANIA Sonja Brede............……………………………(sbr) Benjamin Alvensleben…………………..(bal) Philipp Engstler……………………………..(pen) Lukas Eger………………………………………..(leg) Binta Bah………………………………………….(bib) Aylin Erden………………………………………(aer) Adrià Rivera Escartin……………………….(riv) Kathrin Baumann…………………………...(kab) Jason Franz……………………………………….(jfr) Henryc Fels……………………………………..(hfe) Enrico Behne………………………………….(ebe) Ronja Gottschling…………………………..(rgo) Petra Freudenberger………………………(pfr) Rebecca Beigel……………………………….(rbe) Isabella Lauber…………………………………(ila) Iman Hamdy…………………………………...(imh) Reimar Belschner……………………………(rrb) Luxin Liu……………………………...…………….(lxl) Wiebke Hangst ……………………………...(wih) Svenja Brunkhorst…………………………(svb) Mayely Müller……………………………...(mmu) Solveig Hondrich…………………………...(son) Désirée Bussi…………………………………(deb) Maximilian Orth…………………………….(mor) Tara Jacobi………………………………………..(tjb) Fiona Byrne……………………………………….(fb) Katharina Valjak……………………………….(kv) Dastan Jasim……………………………………(daj) Alexandra von Bülow……………………(abü) Nina Bergmann…………………………….(nbm) Tülay Karakus………………………………….(kar) Victoria Caillet…………………………………(vic) Cecily Bernstorff……………….…………..(ceb) Anna Korbašová……………………………..(ank) Constantin von Crailsheim…………..(coc) Sofie Bliemel……………………………………(sbl) Elisabeth Luy…………………………………..(elu) Katharina Danisch…………………………(kda) Ekaterina Derbilova………………………(ede) Jannik Mertens……………………………….(jmr) Lisa Erlmann…………………………………..(lem) Marius Ellermann…………………………..(mel) Julia Prigge-Musial………………………..(jpm) Anna Michelle Fischer…………………….(afi) Lisa Gesper………………………………………(lge) Marie-Lisa Schneider…………………….(mls) Tanja Gillmann………………………………..(tag) Jakob Gilg………………………………………….(jgi) Martin Webeler……………………………(mwe) Johanne Hintze……………………………….(joh) Tamara Gupper……………………………….(tgu) Tom Würdemann…………………………..(twu) Lion Hubrich…………………………………….(lih) Jacob Heinck……………………………………(jhk) Levin Husen………....................................(lhu) Marko Hermsen…………………………….(mhe) EDITORIAL BOARD Fynn Kaltenpoth……………………………..(fyk) Emanuel Hermann……………………….(emh) Mayely Müller, Timo Werth, Anina David Kerler……………………………………(dke) Leon Jamann…………………………………….(lja) Harter, Marit Braunschweig, Jason Leon Lewin……………………………………….(lel) Mara Kiesle……………………………………..(mki) Franz, Maximilian Herrmann, Siad Jasper Linke……………………………………….(jli) Nora Sophie Kogel…………………………(nsk) Akkam Paul Linke…………………………………………(pli) Bjorn Kolkman…………………………………(kol) Yvonne Merkel……………………………...(yme) Emma Kunz……………………………………..(eku) METHODOLOGICAL ADVISER Luuk van Os……………………………………..(lvo) Giacomo Köhler……………………………..(gko) Vincent Stüber Kristina Pape…...………………………………(krp) Viktoria Lindl…………………………………….(vli) Jonas Schmitt…………………………………..(jos) Franziska Linke………………………………...(fli) EDITORS IN CHIEF Jakob Schultz…………………………………..(jas)