University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 1-1-2018 Restive Subjects: Russian Protest, 2007–2013 Carey C. Neill University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Neill, Carey C., "Restive Subjects: Russian Protest, 2007–2013" (2018). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1410. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/1410 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. Restive Subjects: Russian Protest, 2007-2013 __________ A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver __________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy __________ by Carey C. Neill March 2018 Advisor: Dr. Barry Hughes Author: Carey C. Neill Title: Restive Subjects: Russian Protest, 2007-2013 Advisor: Dr. Barry Hughes Degree Date: March 2018 Abstract This dissertation develops and evaluates a structural theory of protest onset, applied to the Russian case. Russian stability has become a pressing international political concern, as Putin has annexed the Crimea, fomented one war, in Ukraine, and become a major player in another, in Syria. In December 2011, thousands of Russians gathered in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and other cities for the largest set of protests since the fall of the USSR. Waves of protest have reappeared sporadically since. Each time, events create islands of dissent, spread widely, but unevenly, throughout the country—in a picture reminiscent of the pre-collapse Soviet Union. The dissertation argues that only an integrated theoretical framework can adequately explain protest onset variation. Such a framework must include three leading positions: social mobilization capacity, grievances, and political opportunity structure. It must include an additional element as well: state capacity, which is only weakly present in the theoretical canon of Social Movement Studies. The project requires novel sub-national data to test the integrated framework. Independent variable data derives from the Russian Federal Statistics Service. Dependent variable data derives from activist-curated web collections. According to statistical results, structural factors do, in fact, systematically explain variation in Russian protest from 2007 to 2013. A time series negative binomial regression model reports that protests are most likely in federal subjects featuring highly urbanized populations, ii high unemployment, and low social spending. These structural factors provide a probabilistic explanation of Russian protest variation over the time horizon. A paired case study, focused on Novosibirsk and Krasnoyarsk Krai, evaluates quantitative results and offers model specification suggestions. Conclusions indicate that targeted public spending serves as a tool with which the Russian state can coopt public obedience; local governments can employ revenues as a tool to maintain social order. These finding generate novel international political implications, particularly connected with commodity price fluctuation and wars in Ukraine and Syria. iii Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 Major Findings .............................................................................................................................. 1 Major Contributions ...................................................................................................................... 1 Motivation ..................................................................................................................................... 3 A Geography of Micro Events ...................................................................................................... 4 The Troubled State of the Art ....................................................................................................... 7 Not in Circumstances They Choose ............................................................................................ 8 An Academic Desert .................................................................................................................... 9 Statistical Findings ..................................................................................................................... 10 Policy Implications ...................................................................................................................... 11 Case Study and Moving Forward ............................................................................................... 12 I - Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 14 The Rise of Russian Protest ...................................................................................................... 14 Motivation ................................................................................................................................... 19 The Dependent Variable ............................................................................................................ 27 The Puzzling Empirical Realm ................................................................................................... 32 A Model Of Russian Protest ....................................................................................................... 43 Moving Forward ......................................................................................................................... 47 II - Theories of Protest and State Power ........................................................................................ 49 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 49 Social Protest Theory Over Time ............................................................................................... 51 State of the Field ........................................................................................................................ 64 Not In Circumstances They Choose .......................................................................................... 66 State Capacity Theory................................................................................................................ 70 Protest and the Idea of the State ............................................................................................... 73 III - Operationalizing Core Concepts .............................................................................................. 76 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 76 The Importance of the State ...................................................................................................... 79 The Tenuous Link ...................................................................................................................... 83 Methodological Nationalism ....................................................................................................... 89 Organizing Operationalizations ................................................................................................ 101 Moving Forward ....................................................................................................................... 108 iv IV - Data Politics ........................................................................................................................... 110 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 110 From Concept to Measurement, Again .................................................................................... 113 Effective, Efficient Accumulation .............................................................................................. 115 Event Data Flaws ..................................................................................................................... 120 The Russian Environment ........................................................................................................ 125 Activist Sources ........................................................................................................................ 127 March of the Discontents ......................................................................................................... 131 The Coding Decision ................................................................................................................ 137 Ideas for Further Study ............................................................................................................ 142 V - Structural Conditions of Russian Protest, 2007-2013 ............................................................ 144 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 144 Descriptive Trends ..................................................................................................................