AUTHORITARIAN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC CASES OF CHINA, IRAN, RUSSIA, BELARUS AND HUNGARY Edited by Vladislav Inozemtsev AUTHORITARIAN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC CASES OF CHINA, IRAN, RUSSIA, BELARUS AND HUNGARY FREE RUSSIA FOUNDATION JUNE, 2020 Free Russia Foundation Editor Vladislav Inozemtsev Authors Elizabeth Chen Clément Therme Vladislav Inozemtsev Arseny Sivitsky Bálint Madlovics Proofreading Courtney Dobson, Blue Bear Editing Layout Free Russia Designs CONTENTS Introduction 5 Elizabeth Chen. China 7 Clément Therme. Iran 27 Vladislav Inozemtsev. Russia 38 Arseny Sivitsky. Belarus 58 Bálint Madlovics. Hungary 77 Conclusion 94 economic disruptions; China’s GDP contracted by 6.8% INTRODUCTION in the first quarter;6 all major airlines cut up to 90% of their regular flights by April 1;7 the American economy virtually stalled with 38.6 million jobless by the end of 8 The global pandemic caused by a coronavirus, May. In June 2020, the IMF predicted that the American widely known as COVID-19, officially broke out in the economy would contract by 5.9% in 2020 and the EU 9 city of Wuhan in China in late 2019, but most probably it projection stood at 6.7%. While it is difficult to calculate originated from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Wu- the overall economic effect of the crisis, even the most conservative estimates begin at $6 trillion with an addi- han-based Institute of Virology1 aauthorized to conduct the most sophisticated experiments with different viruses. tional $15 trillion in assets expected to evaporate due to It is also widely believed that the outbreak started three the declining prices of stocks, real estate, and produc- to four months before it was confirmed by the Chinese of- tion facilities. National responses to the pandemic have varied greatly with most governments and communities ficials.2 No one actually knows when exactly it emerged and how many people had contracted the vi- rus by the initially unpre-pared for the speed and scale of impacts time the outbreak was reported to the WHO on New of COVID-19. Year’s Eve. What we do know is that the Chinese authori- In the pre-coronavirus world, many politicians and ties first pretended the infection was not too dangerous, political thinkers expected democracies to be better suit- but by the end of January started to take radical mea- ed to manage economic issues, ensure personal liberties, sures—putting more than 50 million people in several and promote growth and communal well- being;and an- ticipated that ‘strong’ autocratic societies would be better provinces under quarantine.3 Because of both, the delayed response and down- equipped for facing emergencies and dealing with unex- graded dangers of the virus, it easily spread outside pected challenges. To some extent, the COVID-19 pan- China’s borders, causing a global disaster. As of June 1, demic has confirmed such expectations. According to the 2020, five months after the emergence of the virus was Freedom House World Index 2020, the 83 nations rec- officially recognized, it had spread to 212 countries and ognized as ”free” and amounting to roughly 37.6% of the 10 territories, infected more than 6 million people and killed global population, account for 76.9% of all people in- around 375 thousand, with a quarter of all cases and ca- fected with COVID-19 and more than 84.9% dead as of May 10, 2020.11 There is little doubt free nations are the sualties recorded in the United States.4 When the World Health Organization declared the most economically developed, have better health- care COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on March 11, 2020, systems and more advanced social safety nets than the not only vast regions of China were locked down, but rest of the world. Moreover, it should be noted that the the whole nation declared the state of emergency and most developed countries—like the United States, Cana- sealed its borders, as Italy did just one day prior to 5 WHO’s move. Such measures have resulted in immense 6 Laura He, “China’s Economy Just Shrank for the First Time in Decades,” CNN Business (website), accessed May 10, 2020, https:// www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/economy/china-economy-gdp/index. 1 Zachary Basu, “Pompeo Says There’s ‘Enormous Evidence’ html. Coronavirus Originated in Wuhan Lab,” Axios (website), accessed May 7 Andrew Freedman et al., “How Coronavirus Grounded the Airline 28, 2020, https://www.axios.com/pompeo-coronavirus-wuhan-lab- Industry,” Washington Post (website), accessed May 10, 2020, https:// 5f305526-9ceb-49af-943a-fd8291a6d5d9.html. www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/coronavirus-airline- 2 Kate Kelland, “New Coronavirus Spread Swiftly Around World From industry-collapse/. Late 2019, Study finds,” Reuters (website), accessed May 28, 2020, 8 Lance Lambert, “38.6 million have filed for unemployment during the https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-evolution/ pandemic—greater than the combined population of 21 states,” Fortune new-coronavirus-spread-swiftly-around-world-from-late-2019-study-finds- (website), accessed May 28, 2020, https://fortune.com/2020/05/21/ idUSKBN22I1E3. us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total-job-losses-may-21- 3 Aylin Woodward and Rosie Perper, “Wuhan, China, and at least 15 2020-benefits-claims-job-losses/. other cities have been quarantined as China attempts to halt the spread of 9 See: IMF Data Mapper, April 2020, International Monetary Fund the coronavirus. That’s about 50 million people on lockdown,” Business (website), accessed May 28, 2020, https://www.imf.org/external/ Insider (website), accessed May 28, 2020, https://www.businessinsider. datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD. com/wuhan-coronavirus-officials-quarantine-entire-city-2020-1. 10 See: “Freedom in the World 2020 Database,” Freedom House 4 See: “Daily coronavirus statistics,” Worldometer (website), accessed (website), accessed May 10, 2020, https://freedomhouse.org/ May 28, 2020, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. countries/freedom-world/scores. 5 See: “Coronavirus: Italy Imposes Nationwide Restrictions,” Deutsche 11 Calculated by the author according to country data as provided in: Welle (website), accessed May 10, 2020, https://www.dw.com/en/ “Daily coronavirus statistics,” Worldometer (website), accessed May 10, coronavirus-italy-imposes-nationwide-restrictions/a-52687246. 2020, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. 5 Authoritarian response to the pandemic. Cases of China, Iran, Russia, Belarus and Hungary da, the United Kingdom, member-states of the European ID-19 as effective. It has used the pandemic to legitimize Union, Japan, Australia and New Zealand—have allo- further assault on democracy and freedoms of its citizens. cated enormous resources to stabilize their economies Finally, it has dedicated minimal resources to supporting and have provided their people with basic needs during its own economy and population during the COVID-19 self-isolation and quarantine. The share of these nations crisis. in economic stimulus programs adopted worldwide ex- Iran, a theocratic Muslim state in the heart of the ceeds 85%,12 while the economic downturn seems to be Gulf region, has borne disproportionate losses due to one of the severest. its close ties with China and the dynamics of disease’s However, these statistics should not be taken at their spread inside communities of faith. face value. First of all, there is a lot of doubt (to put it Belarus, a relatively small post-Soviet state on the mildly) about the validity of statistical data provided by European Union’s eastern borders, is a unique case of a authoritarian and non-democratic governments related nation whose leadership has remained unwavering in its to the initial reports, the extent of progress achieved in denial of the challenges posed by the virus. This policy fighting the pandemic, and their likelihood to accurately has made Belarus one of the most affected countries in report new “hot spots” or “the second wave.” Secondly, Europe with no clear outlook as to how and when the it seems that almost any country can survive even a one- pandemic might recede there. month-long economic pause without enormous fiscal and Hungary is included as the only country inside the financial stimulus, but such a disruption would definite- European Union approaching the description of an au- ly have long- term consequences that in many aspects tocratic state, with a highly personality-driven system of might be even more disastrous than huge budget deficits governance and a growing trend of pervasive corruption caused by the growth of the national debt. The authori- and nepotism. It serves as an opportune case for examin- tarian states which bet on their citizens’ ability to muddle ing specific features that a corrupt, though formally dem- through the crisis without serious government help, could ocratic, regime may adopt in its response to a pandemic. see them turn into “economically disabled” for years to This report was produced by a team of experts come. Thirdly, it is hard to predict ways in which popular chaired by Dr Vladislav Inozemtsev, Founder and Di- attitudes toward governments and political elites inside rector of the Center of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow authoritarian states might change after the pandemic. and Senior Associate with the Center for Strategic and Many of them have dialed up the repression against their International Studies in Washington who also wrote the citizens during the pandemic, a trend which in the long- chapter on Russia; Dr Clément Therme, former Director term can become a destabilizing factor. of the Iran Research Program at the International Institute The longer the state of emergency is upheld glob- of Strategic Studies, currently serving as Research Asso- ally , the more likely it is to result in profound societal ciate at the École des hautes études en sciences sociales changes, especially in non-democratic states.