University of Central Florida STARS Honors Undergraduate Theses UCF Theses and Dissertations 2021 The Failure of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Wars Benjamin D. Giltner University of Central Florida Part of the Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/honorstheses University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the UCF Theses and Dissertations at STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Undergraduate Theses by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Recommended Citation Giltner, Benjamin D., "The Failure of Third-Party Interventions in Civil Wars" (2021). Honors Undergraduate Theses. 976. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/honorstheses/976 THE FAILURE OF THIRD-PARTY INTERVENTIONS IN CIVIL WARS by BENJAMIN DAVID GILTNER University of Central Florida, 2021 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Honors in the Major Program in the degree of International and Global Studies in the School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs in the College of Sciences at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2021 ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis is to understand the circumstances that result in the inability of third-party interventions to solve civil wars. Previous research has examined the impact of third- party interventions on the outcomes of civil wars, the interests of third-party actors in civil wars, as well as the perceptions of civil war participants on third-party actors. The theory in this paper asserts that third-party interventions are unsuccessful when the government and leader of at least one country place the interest of special interest groups ahead of the national interest of their country. This research uses the war in eastern Ukraine as a case study. This thesis uses nationalist and veteran groups as the special interest group, and high officials in the presidential administration of Volodymyr Zelenskiy as the government leaders. The rhetoric of the Zelenskiy administration in regards to the prospects of instituting peace in eastern Ukraine is examined from the time span of May 2019 to March 2021. The evidence of this research demonstrates that the rhetoric administration of Zelenskiy changed from conciliatory and positive, to that of a combination of positive and negative rhetoric towards peace. These government officials attempted to appeal to their voting base, as well as to the special interest groups studied. This contradicting rhetoric creates an environment of confusion in regards to ending wars and conflicts. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my deep appreciation for my thesis chair, Dr. Konstantin Ash, for his help in this thesis. His commitment to assisting me in finding a topic, in researching materials, and his understanding of Ukraine were invaluable to my writing and research. I also would like to thank my committee member, Dr. Nikola Mirilovic. His dedication to assisting me in my undergraduate thesis endeavors, and his feedback on my writing structure and research on civil wars were vital for me in completing my thesis. I also dedicate this research to the IC CAE at UCF. Their support for my thesis allowed me to undertake in-depth research that I would not have otherwise been able to do. Finally, I would like to dedicate my appreciation to my family. I am fortunate to have the love and support of my parents in being able to attend a university, and gain a better understanding of our world. I am also fortunate to have grandparents, who spurred my interest in the world, and have always given me invaluable lessons in life. Finally, I am also privileged to have my girlfriend, Taylor, and my brother, Jake, in my life. Both of them have pushed me forward, and have been my closest friends. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................... 4 Previous Findings to Question .................................................................................................... 4 Quantitative and Non-Actor Approaches.................................................................................... 5 Actor-Centric Approaches .......................................................................................................... 8 Contribution ................................................................................................................................ 9 THEORY ...................................................................................................................................... 10 Scope ......................................................................................................................................... 10 Assumptions .............................................................................................................................. 11 System-level .......................................................................................................................... 11 Classifying Actors ................................................................................................................. 12 Behavior of Actors ................................................................................................................ 14 Claims ....................................................................................................................................... 17 RESEARCH DESIGN .................................................................................................................. 21 Case Study ................................................................................................................................ 21 Testing the Theory .................................................................................................................... 23 Independent Variable ............................................................................................................ 23 Dependent Variable .............................................................................................................. 24 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 27 Background of Ukrainian Conflict in 2019 .............................................................................. 27 Backgrounds of Ukrainian Officials ......................................................................................... 27 President of Ukraine: Volodymyr Zelenskiy ........................................................................ 27 Prime Minister of Ukraine: Oleksiy Honcharuk ................................................................... 28 Prime Minister of Ukraine: Denys Shmyhal ......................................................................... 28 Ukrainian President Chief of Staff: Andriy Bohdan ............................................................. 29 Ukrainian President Chief of Staff: Andriy Yermak ............................................................ 29 May 2019 .................................................................................................................................. 30 Zelenskiy ............................................................................................................................... 30 iv Bohdan .................................................................................................................................. 31 July 2019 ................................................................................................................................... 31 Zelenskiy ............................................................................................................................... 31 September 2019 ........................................................................................................................ 32 Zelenskiy ............................................................................................................................... 32 October 2019 ............................................................................................................................. 33 Zelenskiy ............................................................................................................................... 33 Bohdan .................................................................................................................................. 36 Protests .................................................................................................................................. 37 November 2019 ......................................................................................................................... 38 Honcharuk ............................................................................................................................. 38 December 2019 ......................................................................................................................... 40 Zelenskiy ............................................................................................................................... 40 Protests .................................................................................................................................