AVERTISSEMENT Ce document est le fruit d’un long travail approuvé par le jury de soutenance et mis à disposition de l’ensemble de la communauté universitaire élargie. Il est soumis à la propriété intellectuelle de l’auteur : ceci implique une obligation de citation et de référencement lors de l’utilisation de ce document. D’autre part, toute contrefaçon, plagiat, reproduction illicite de ce travail expose à des poursuites pénales. Contact : [email protected] LIENS Code la Propriété Intellectuelle – Articles L. 122-4 et L. 335-1 à L. 335-10 Loi n°92-597 du 1er juillet 1992, publiée au Journal Officiel du 2 juillet 1992 http://www.cfcopies.com/V2/leg/leg-droi.php http://www.culture.gouv.fr/culture/infos-pratiques/droits/protection.htm « L’université n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans cette thèse. Ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à l’auteur ». PART 1: The Large Commercial Aircraft Duopoly ......................................... 6 I The air travel market ..................................................................................................................... 6 I- The egiig of air trael: Fro s “afety First to todays Kigfisher Airlies ............. 6 I-1-1-A First major development: The first airline ................................................................... 7 I-1-2-The second major development: The first large and safe piston engines airliners and the start of competition in airline service ............................................................................. 13 I-1-3 The third major development: the jet age ................................................................. 18 I-1-4-The fourth major development: the US deregulation of 1978 .................................... 24 I-1-5 Is the airline market a contestable market? ................................................................. 32 I-1-6 The fifth major development: the Low Cost Carriers emergence ................................ 39 I-2 The market for commercial aircraft ..................................................................................... 48 I-2-1 The drivers of aircraft demand ..................................................................................... 48 I-2-2 The cyclical nature of the commercial aircraft demand ............................................... 54 I-2-3 The market demand by region and market segment ................................................... 56 I-2-4 The incumbents and new entrants by market segment ............................................... 60 II The strategic Importance of aerospace ...................................................................................... 63 II-1 The reasons for the strategic importance of aerospace ..................................................... 63 II-2 Are the reasons for the strategic Importance of aerospace the same for the US and Europe? ..................................................................................................................................... 70 II-3 Strategic importance of aerospace innovation ................................................................... 71 II-4 Innovation is strategic in enabling social responsibility ...................................................... 77 II-5 Importance of aerospace as innovation spillover ............................................................... 88 II-6 The benefits of innovation spillover – example of successful spillover and survey of economic literature on innovation spillover ............................................................................. 91 III The historical leadership of the United States LCA industry .................................................. 108 III-1 European responses to the US dominance ...................................................................... 113 III-2 The rise of the European aerospace industry .................................................................. 115 III-2-1 Creation of Aerospatiale and structure of its cooperative system ........................... 115 III-2-2 Evolution and motivations of the cooperative trajectory of Aerospatiale ............... 116 III-2-3 Cooperative structure of the Aerospatiale group ..................................................... 116 III-2-4 Aerospatiale cooperation structure in Civil Aircraft: Airbus Industrie ...................... 117 2 III-2-5 Aerospatiale cooperation in the regional aircraft ..................................................... 119 III-2-6 Aerospatiale cooperation in helicopters ................................................................... 120 III-2-7 Aerospatiale cooperation in tactical vehicle and missiles ........................................ 123 III-2- Aerospatiales ooperatio i strategi systes ad spae ..................................... 124 IV Market entry of the current incumbent competitors ............................................................ 128 IV- Boeigs arket etry i the LCA arket ....................................................................... 128 IV- Airus arket etry i the LCA arket .......................................................................... 134 IV-2-1 From infancy to world leader ................................................................................... 134 IV-2-2 Transformation of Airbus into an integrated company ............................................ 146 V - Key determinants of competitiveness in the large civil aircraft business .............................. 149 V-1 Internal determinants of competitiveness ....................................................................... 150 V-1-1 Corporate Structure ................................................................................................... 150 V-1-2 Firm Strategy .............................................................................................................. 156 V-1-3 Develop a family of products ..................................................................................... 156 V-1-4 Commonality as a market barrier .............................................................................. 161 V-1-5 Product innovations ................................................................................................... 163 V-1-6 How do airlines evaluate the value proposition of competing product .................... 165 V-1-7 Entry barriers ............................................................................................................. 167 V-1-8 Flexibility of the production ....................................................................................... 172 V-1-9 Internationalization of the supply chain .................................................................... 174 V-2 External determinants of competitiveness ....................................................................... 183 PART 2: Threats to the Large Commercial Aircraft Duopoly ............. 186 VI-A new era of innovation development: the entrance of emerging countries as innovation powerhouses ............................................................................................................................... 186 VI-1 Metric to measure China ability to innovate and become an LCA leader ....................... 188 VI-2 The framework conditions to innovation ........................................................................ 190 VI-2-1 The Chinese institutions influencing innovation ...................................................... 190 VI-2-2 Education set-up and basic education system ......................................................... 192 VI-2-3 Communication infrastructure facilitating innovation ............................................. 194 VI-2-4 Financial institutions facilitating innovation and market access ....................... 195 VI-3 The dynamo to innovation: the science and engineering base. ..................................... 199 VI-3-1 The technical training and university system ........................................................... 199 3 VI-3-2 Basic Research .......................................................................................................... 207 VI-4 The transfer factor for innovation, or the links between participants ............................ 210 VI-4-1 The linkage between innovative firms ...................................................................... 210 VI-4-2 Ethics in R&D ............................................................................................................. 218 VI-4-3 International links ..................................................................................................... 218 VI-4-4 Spin-off company formation ..................................................................................... 223 VI-4-5 Presence of expert .................................................................................................... 227 VI-4-6 Mobility ..................................................................................................................... 229 VI-5 The innovation dynamo: the business enterprise .......................................................... 232 VI-6 Conclusion: does China have what it will take to design and commercialize successfully the next game changing single aisle aircraft? ......................................................................... 236 VII The large commercial aircraft industry in China ...................................................................