Spring 2018 Volume 32, No. 1 AFRP 10-1 Features The Big Data Imperative ❙ 4 Air Force Intelligence for the Information Age Col Shane P. Hamilton, USAF Lt Col Michael P. Kreuzer, USAF, PhD Semper Optiones: 21st Century Intelligence ❙ 21 COL David Pendall, USA Air Mobility Liaison Officer Promotions: Perception and Reality ❙ 34 Lt Col Nicholas Conklin, USAF Developing Air Force Field Grade Officers for Joint Leadership ❙ 52 Lt Col Daniel L. Magruder Jr., USAF, PhD The Elements of an Effective Squadron: An Air Force Organizational Study ❙ 65 Maj Jason M. Newcomer, DBA, USAF Lt Col Daniel A. Connelly, PhD, USAF, Retired Terror from Above ❙ 80 How the Commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Revolution Threatens the US Threshold Maj Bryan A. Card, USAFR Departments 96 ❙ View Piercing the Fog of Data ❙ Using Activity Based Intelligence to Combat the North Korea Missile Problem Maj William Giannetti, USAFR 103 ❙ Commentary Toward an Innovation Strategy for the US Air Force ❙ 103 Lt Col Christopher R. Cassem, USAF 109 ❙ Schriever Essay Award Winner The New Matrix of War ❙ 109 Digital Dependence in Contested Environments Capt Keith B. Nordquist, USAF 118 ❙ Book Reviews Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon . 118 Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes, eds. Reviewer: Wing Cdr John M. Shackell, RAF, Retired Strategy: Context and Adaptation from Archidamus to Airpower . 119 Richard J. Bailey Jr., James W. Forsyth Jr., and Mark O. Yeisley Reviewer: Maj Andrew L. Brown, USAF Scales on War: The Future of America’s Military at Risk . 120 Maj Gen Bob Scales, USA, Retired Reviewer: Capt Haley Shea B. Hicks, USAF Practise to Deceive: Learning Curves of Military Deception Planners . 122 Barton Whaley Reviewer: Maj J. Alexander Ippoliti, USAF Father of the Tuskegee Airmen, John C . Robinson . 123 Philip Thomas Tucker Reviewer: Robert B. Kane, PhD Why Air Forces Fail: The Anatomy of Defeat . 125 Robin Higham and Stephen J. Harris, eds. Reviewer: 2nd Lt Scott T. Seidenberger, USAF Editorial Advisors Dr. Dale L. Hayden, Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education Lt Gen Bradley C. Hosmer, USAF, Retired Prof. Thomas B. Grassey, US Naval Academy Lt Col Dave Mets, PhD, USAF, Retired, School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (professor emeritus) Reviewers Dr. Christian F. Anrig Col John Jogerst, USAF, Retired Swiss Air Force Navarre, Florida Dr. Bruce Bechtol Col Wray Johnson, USAF, Retired Angelo State University School of Advanced Warfighting Marine Corps University Dr. Kendall K. Brown NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Mr. Charles Tustin Kamps USAF Air Command and Staff College Col Steven E. Cahanin Director of Technologies and Information Dr. Tom Keaney Air Force Personnel Center Johns Hopkins University Dr. Norman C. Capshaw Col Merrick E. Krause, USAF, Retired Military Sealift Command Defense Contract Audit Agency Washington Navy Yard, DC Col Chris J. Krisinger, USAF, Retired Dr. Stephen D. Chiabotti Burke, Virginia USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Dr. Charles Krupnick Maj Gen Ralph Clem, PhD, USAFR, Retired Troy University Florida International University Dr. Benjamin S. Lambeth Dr. Mark Clodfelter Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments National War College Mr. Brent Marley Dr. Christopher T. Colliver Huntsville, Alabama Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio Mr. Rémy M. Mauduit Dr. Charles Costanzo Editor, ASPJ Africa & Francophonie USAF Air Command and Staff College Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education Col Dennis M. Drew, USAF, Retired USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Col Phillip S. Meilinger, USAF, Retired (professor emeritus) West Chicago, Illinois Maj Gen Charles J. Dunlap Jr., USAF, Retired Dr. Richard R. Muller Duke University USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Dr. James W. Forsyth Maj Jason M. Newcomer, DBA, USAF Dean, Air Command & Staff College Air Combat Command Lt Col Derrill T. Goldizen, PhD, USAF, Retired Col Robert Owen, USAF, Retired Westport Point, Massachusetts Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Col Mike Guillot, USAF, Retired Lt Col Brian S. Pinkston, USAF, MC, SFS Editor, Strategic Studies Quarterly Civil Aerospace Medical Institute Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development Dr. Steve Rothstein and Education Colorado Springs Science Center Project Dr. Grant T. Hammond Col John E. Shaw USAF Center for Strategy and Technology Peterson AFB, Colorado Dr. Dale L. Hayden Dr. James Smith Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development USAF Institute for National Security Studies and Education Col Richard Szafranski, USAF, Retired Col S. Clinton Hinote Isle of Palms, South Carolina Military Fellow Council on Foreign Relations Lt Col Edward B. Tomme, PhD, USAF, Retired CyberSpace Operations Consulting Dr. Thomas Hughes USAF School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Lt Col David A. Umphress, PhD, USAFR, Retired Auburn University Lt Col Jeffrey Hukill, USAF, Retired Col Mark E. Ware, USAF, Retired Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development Twenty-Fourth Air Force and Education Mr. Stephen Werner Lt Col J. P. Hunerwadel, USAF, Retired Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education and Education Dr. Xiaoming Zhang Col Mark P. Jelonek, PhD, USAF, Retired USAF Air War College Aerospace Corporation Spring 2018 | 3 The Big Data Imperative Air Force Intelligence for the Information Age Col Shane P. Hamilton, USAF Lt Col Michael P. Kreuzer, USAF, PhD* Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed or implied in the Journal are those of the authors and should not be con- strued as carrying the official sanction of the Department of Defense, Air Force, Air Education and Training Command, Air University, or other agencies or departments of the US government. This article may be reproduced in whole or in part without permission. If it is reproduced, the Air and Space Power Journal requests a courtesy line. ig data is the subject of much discussion in the media and in the government today. It has been described as an “easy button,” when combined with artifi- cial intelligence, to reduce the human role of analysis. Some view this as a potentialB threat to the democratic order, and by others it is viewed as a lot of hype with few earth-shattering results to show.1 What is big data, and why is it vital to the future of the intelligence community (IC) and combined military operations? In this article, the authors argue that the information revolution has radically changed intelligence by dramatically increasing the number and variety of intelli- gence collectors. Thereby the collectors create a global network of analysts and *The authors would like to thank those who provided key insights and reviews for this article, including Kenneth Bray, Dr. Jon Kimminau, Lt Col Shawn Smagh, and Maj Shaun Lee. 4 | Air & Space Power Journal The Big Data Imperative machines that facilitate the rapid sharing of data and information. This network also increases the appetite of operators for faster and more operationally relevant assessments about threats and targeting opportunities. Further, it has reshaped the threat environment by creating new centers of power and collection in the cyber domain—where adversaries can recruit members, plan strikes, and exploit both or- dered and inspired attacks through online collectives. Our current manpower and resource-constrained environment—combined with these factors—necessitates new strategies for planning and executing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations, and investment in organizing, training, and equipping analyst Air- men with the tools to succeed in the modern information environment. Big data con- ceptually sits at the core of this environment and will drive our understanding of how we collect, structure, and analyze data, information, and intelligence in the future. Cutting through the Hype—What is Big Data? As the name implies, big data is ultimately about the gathering, storing, and pro- cessing of large volumes of data and information. Intelligence analysts will quickly point out that there is nothing new about gathering and storing large volumes of in- formation, as it has been a central purpose of intelligence entities for centuries. Nonmilitary analysts regularly sort through large volumes of data to make quantitative assessments of complex problem sets based on tens of thousands of case observations across multiple variables. So, what makes big data new and different? The phrase first appeared in the early 2000s, when industry analyst Doug Laney defined big data as distinct from previous models by three main factors dubbed the “three Vs:”2 • Volume —The information age enables both the acquisition and storing of data and information that can be preserved and regularly accessed and analyzed on scales not seen before. Most previous databases for analysis could be contained in a single database (such as a Microsoft Excel database) with lines ranging from tens to tens of thousands of lines. Big data enables the collection of mil- lions to billions of data points. • Velocity —The volume of data and information is acquired at an unprece- dented speed and must be dealt with promptly. Twitter, for instance, received 500 million updates (tweets) per day in 2013;3 each tweet constituting a single data point of information. • Variety —Data and information come in numerous formats from diverse sources. In the past, the analyst or entity requiring the information could shape what was collected and how it was stored, but the combination of vol- ume and velocity today necessitates building systems to manage and incorpo- rate data in the form in which it is acquired; from an image to a Twitter or Facebook entry to a transcript of a conversation or speech. As awareness of big data has grown, many scholars today have added to these three Vs with other dimensions such as variability and complexity. In the USAF, among other institutions, we add a fourth “V” to this list: Spring 2018 | 5 Hamilton & Kreuzer • Veracity : The volume, velocity, and variety of data accessible via big data in- clude a significant amount of noise and irrelevant data to the problem set.