THESIS RESIDENTIAL LOCATION CHOICE BEHAVIOR IN MANDALAY THEINT HTET HTET AUNG GRADUATE SCHOOL, KASETSART UNIVERSITY Academic Year 2019 2 THESIS APPROVAL GRADUATE SCHOOL, KASETSART UNIVERSITY DEGREE: Master of Engineering (Civil Engineering) MAJOR FIELD: Civil Engineering DEPARTMENT: Civil Engineering TITLE: Residential Location Choice Behavior in Mandalay NAME: MISS THEINT HTET HTET AUNG THIS THESIS HAS BEEN ACCEPTED BY THESIS ADVISOR (Associate Professor Varameth Vichiensan, Ph.D.) DEPARTMENT HEAD (Associate Professor Suphawut Malaikrisanachalee, Ph.D.) APPROVED BY THE GRADUATE SCHOOL ON DEAN (Associate Professor Srijidtra Charoenlarpnopparut, Ph.D.) 3 THESIS RESIDENTIAL LOCATION CHOICE BEHAVIOR IN MANDALAY THEINT HTET HTET AUNG A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering (Civil Engineering) Graduate School, Kasetsart University Academic Year 2019 C ABSTRACT THEINT HTET HTET AUNG : Residential Location Choice Behavior in Mandalay. Master of Engineering (Civil Engineering), Major Field: Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering. Thesis Advisor: Associate Professor Varameth Vichiensan, Ph.D. Academic Year 2019 Mandalay, as a major commercial and industrial hub of Myanmar is located in the middle of Myanmar, which is about 390 km north of Nay Pyi Taw and about 700 km north of Yangon. Based on 2013 population figures provided by the Department of Immigration, there are an estimated 240,000 households in Mandalay City with an average household size of 5.25 persons per household. The second biggest city in Myanmar and, besides being a religious and cultural centre, is now facing great challenges due to a substantial increase in automobile, traffic volume, air pollution, and urban sprawl. The rapid urban growth can be seen by the high-density housing development in many parts of the city. However, the current development of high-density housing that is going on in the city center may not best match with people’s preference, on the contrary it will even make the problem more severe resulting in traffic congestion and accelerating the urban sprawl. The main purpose of this study is to examine the factors that have influence on residential preference, i.e., attractiveness of attributes with respect to various groups of people in Mandalay and this study was focused on the people who live in six townships of Mandalay. A multinomial logit model was developed based on the SP survey data. Although the discrete choice model has a long history of application in the economic, transportation, marketing and geography fields, it is not well developed in location analysis. The results supported that the existence of factors which differ in their housing choice preference and reveal that people are considering factors not only house size, house price, but also locational convenience in terms of commuting time, and neighborhood quality. It is also found that different socio-economic groups, i.e., ethnicity, income and number family members, exhibit different location preferences. _________________ _______________________________ ____ / ____ / ____ Student's signature Thesis Advisor's signature D ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my thesis advisor Associate Professor Varameth Vichiensan, Ph.D for his invaluable advice, suggestion and encouragement throughout my study. More importantly, I would like to thank him for his patience and willingness in spending his precious time to guide in doing research and writing of my thesis. I am grateful to my thesis committee members for their useful suggestions and comments. I wish to thank Associate Professor Suphawut Malaikrisanachalee, Ph.D, the department head, for his always support and continuing to confirm that everything would be fine. I am also indebted to all of my teachers for contributing transportation knowledge and ideas. I would like to thank to all the office staffs. I would like to express the special thank to Kasetsart University Scholarships for ASEAN for Commemoration of the 60th Birthday Anniversary of Professor Dr. Her Royal Highness Princess Chulabhorn Mahidol for providing scholarship and thesis grants to undertake the study. I would sincerely like to thank my country to give a chance to pursue my Master Degree study in Thailand. In addition, I would like to thank my friends that helped me for the data collection and gave me all the support I needed. I also wish to acknowledge all of my colleagues in the Transport group at Kasetsart University for a pleasant working environment. My friends, Wan and Deelh, thank you for your advice and ideas and for always taking care of me. Finally, I would like to thank my lovely parents for their unending support and encouragement toward my success. I also wish to thank my two younger sisters for supporting my decision to study at Kasetsart University. THEINT HTET HTET AUNG E TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. C ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................... D TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................. E LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................ H LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... J INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1 OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................ 5 STUDY AREA .............................................................................................................. 6 LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................................. 7 1. Mandalay ............................................................................................................. 7 1.1 Socio-economic Overview of Mandalay City ............................................ 7 1.2 Population, Employment and Ethnic groups ................................................. 8 1.3 History of the Mandalay City ........................................................................ 9 1.4 Urban and Housing Situation ...................................................................... 11 1.4.1 Central Urban Area ......................................................................... 12 1.4.2 Surrounding Area of the Old Downtown ......................................... 12 1.4.3 New Housing and Business Development Areas ............................. 13 1.5 Land Use ...................................................................................................... 17 1.6 Transport in Mandalay ................................................................................ 22 1.6.1 Road and traffic problems ............................................................... 23 1.7 Bus Service in Mandalay ............................................................................. 23 1.7.1 Use of Transport by Purpose ........................................................... 24 1.7.2 Public Bus Transportation Supply................................................... 26 1.7.3 Public Transport Institutional and Regulatory Structure ............... 29 2. Residential Location Choice Model .................................................................. 31 F 2.1 Factors Influencing in Residential Location Choice ................................... 31 3. Discrete Choice Model ...................................................................................... 39 3.1 Multinomial Logit Model ............................................................................ 39 3.2 Goodness of Fit ........................................................................................ 41 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ................................................................................. 45 1. Questionnaire Survey Design ............................................................................ 46 1.1 Stated Preference Experiment ..................................................................... 47 1.2 Orthogonal Design ...................................................................................... 50 2. Data Collection .................................................................................................. 54 2.1 Data codes for analysis ............................................................................. 55 2.2 Variables used in the model ..................................................................... 57 2.3 Relationship between each independent variables ................................... 58 3. Data Preparation in the NLOGIT software ....................................................... 62 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................. 63 1. Characteristics of the Respondents .................................................................... 63 1.1 Face-to-face survey respondents’ characteristics ..................................... 63 1.1.1 Household income and Personal income ..................................... 65 1.1.2 Respondents residence and work/school location ........................ 66 1.1.3 Respondents vehicle ownership and daily vehicle usage