PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE WORKING PAPER 3 AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS NOVEMBER 2016 In association with InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. Table of Contents CHAPTER 3 AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Airport Service Area ................................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.3 Historical Aviation Activity ....................................................................................................................................... 3-3 3.3.1 Annual Aircraft Operations ................................................................................................................................ 3-5 3.3.2 Aircraft Fleet Mix .................................................................................................................................................... 3-6 3.3.3 Based Aircraft........................................................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.4 Passenger Enplanements .................................................................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.5 Cargo Activity ........................................................................................................................................................ 3-10 3.4 Analysis of Air traffic and Forecast ..................................................................................................................... 3-14 3.5 Trend Forecasts .......................................................................................................................................................... 3-15 3.6 Econometric Modeling............................................................................................................................................ 3-16 3.7 Bottom-Up Scenario Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 3-19 3.8 Annual Passenger and Cargo Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 3-19 3.8.1 Annual Passenger Enplanement Forecast .................................................................................................. 3-19 3.8.2 Annual Air Cargo Volume Forecast ............................................................................................................... 3-21 3.9 Peak Hour / Peak Day Forecasts ......................................................................................................................... 3-23 3.10 Forecast Case and TAF Comparison .................................................................................................................. 3-25 3.10.1 Air Passengers .................................................................................................................................................. 3-27 3.10.2 Airline Air Operations .................................................................................................................................... 3-28 3.10.3 Air Cargo Operations..................................................................................................................................... 3-31 3.10.4 General Aviation Operations ...................................................................................................................... 3-32 3.10.5 Annual Military Operations ......................................................................................................................... 3-33 3.11 Air Transportation Market Study ........................................................................................................................ 3-33 3.11.1 Low Cost and Ultra-Low Cost Carrier Developments ....................................................................... 3-36 3.11.2 Airline Consolidation ..................................................................................................................................... 3-40 3.11.3 Economic Growth ............................................................................................................................................ 3-42 3.11.4 The Economic Outlook ................................................................................................................................. 3-48 3.11.5 Competition Among Airports .................................................................................................................... 3-48 3.12 Critical Aircraft Selection ........................................................................................................................................ 3-51 3.13 Forecast Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 3-53 List of Figures Figure 3-1 PNS Service Area ...................................................................................................................................................... 3-2 Figure 3-2 Service Map and Daily Service Summary ......................................................................................................... 3-3 Figure 3-3 2005-2016 Passenger Traffic ................................................................................................................................ 3-4 Pensacola International Airport Master Plan Update –Working Paper 3 Figure 3-4 Passenger Seasonality by Month ........................................................................................................................ 3-5 Figure 3-5 Aircraft Operations 2004-2015 ........................................................................................................................... 3-6 Figure 3-6 Annual Outbound Seats ......................................................................................................................................... 3-7 Figure 3-7 Annual Departure Operations .............................................................................................................................. 3-7 Figure 3-8 Based Aircraft 2005-2016 ....................................................................................................................................... 3-8 Figure 3-9 Historical Passenger Enplanements and Growth Rate ............................................................................... 3-9 Figure 3-10 Passenger Market Share By Airline 2015 ..................................................................................................... 3-10 Figure 3-11 Air Cargo Tonnage At Area Airports, 2015 ................................................................................................. 3-11 Figure 3-12 UPS Air Cargo Weight By Airport (2006-2015) ......................................................................................... 3-12 Figure 3-13 Air Cargo Weight At PNS (2000-2015) ......................................................................................................... 3-13 Figure 3-14 Carrier Market Share of Cargo Weight (Lbs) (2015) ................................................................................ 3-14 Figure 3-15 Goodness of Fit Econometric Model For Enplanements ....................................................................... 3-16 Figure 3-16 Enplaned Passengers by Commercial Category ....................................................................................... 3-21 Figure 3-17 Passenger Enplanements Forecast Compared to FAA TAF .................................................................. 3-28 Figure 3-18 US Average Load Factor and Domestic Seat Departures ..................................................................... 3-34 Figure 3-19 Average Seats Per Departure, By Carrier (2010 and 2016) ................................................................... 3-35 Figure 3-20 Air Service Changes, 2007 vs 2016 ................................................................................................................ 3-35 Figure 3-21 Low-Cost Airlines Domestic Seat Capacity ................................................................................................. 3-36 Figure 3-22 Ultra Low-Cost Carriers Domestic Seat Capacity ..................................................................................... 3-37 Figure 3-23 Low-Cost And Ultra-Low-Cost Carrier Points Served By Hub Size ................................................... 3-38 Figure 3-24 Southwest Airlines Percentage of Total PNS Capacity ........................................................................... 3-39 Figure 3-25 Airline Merger Timeline ...................................................................................................................................... 3-40 Figure 3-26 Number of Points With Service to Small and Non-Hub Airports ...................................................... 3-41 Figure 3-27 City Pair Combinations Served by Allegiant, 2016 .................................................................................. 3-42 Figure 3-28 Gulf Coast passenger Market Share by Airline (2015) ..........................................................................