Blue Ridge Barometer Welcome to the Spring 2021 edition of Blue Ridge Barometer, the biannual newsletter of the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Blacksburg, VA! In this issue, you will find articles of interest about the weather and climate of our County Warning Area (CWA) and the people and technologies needed to bring accurate forecasts to the public. You’ll also hear from our acting meteorologist-in-charge, learn more about fire weather and the differences between watches and warnings, and discover some tips to stay safe as you enjoy the great outdoors this summer. We hope you’ll enjoy reading this newsletter as much as we enjoyed putting it together! From the Desk of the Acting Meteorologist-in- Charge Inside this Issue: 1-2: From the Desk of the Steve Keighton, AMIC Acting Meteorologist-in- As you will read in this newsletter, there have been, and Charge will continue to be, several staffing transitions this year, 3-6: Review of the 2020-2021 which is exciting but also can be challenging, especially Winter Season as we continue to operate with limited people in the 6-7: Is it a Watch or a building (yet always maintaining the number we need to Warning? meet the operational mission). The limited number of 7-8: New Thunderstorm people physically in the office means fewer opportunities Warning Format to communicate face-to-face with each other, which is the most effective way to grow and maintain relationships on 9-12: Fired Up About the Weather an ever-changing team. Like so many others have dealt with over this past year, we have learned to make good use 12-13: Staying Safe While of video communications for daily internal briefings, Enjoying Great Outdoors conducting meetings with each other and partners, some 13-14: What’s New in Our office training, and even participated in some fun Office: Personnel Changes activities as well. However, nothing beats being together 15-16: Kidz Korner in person. 17-19: From Piedmont to As we move through the remainder of the year and Mountaintop continue to ease out of the pandemic, we hope to be able SPRING 2021 BLUE RIDGE BAROMETER PAGEPAGE 1 1 to slowly bring more people back into the conducted virtual SKYWARN spotter office and take advantage of the in-person training as well, over the past several months. opportunities we all miss so much. We hope We are also wrapping up a collaborative this also includes more face-to-face outreach research effort with Virginia Tech on biases and partnership-building opportunities as of computer model forecasts associated with well. It is very hard to say at what point we the warm layer aloft during mixed might be able to bring visitors and tours back precipitation winter events, and completing a into the building. If that cannot happen this study with neighboring offices on the year, we certainly hope to be able to meet effectiveness of some new radar-based with you in person at our next Open House in products for determining hail size in the 2022. We will update our website and social region. media pages to reflect when tours will Overall, from my position, I have to say that resume, once the COVID-19 restrictions are I am so grateful and proud of how resilient lifted. and flexible ALL the staff at the NWS in Despite these challenges, we have Blacksburg have been over the past accomplished a lot so far this year, including challenging year plus, as we’ve not only dealt transitioning to a new digital phone system with the pandemic like everyone else, but (note our new main phone number is 540- done so with significant staffing transitions 553-8900), performing a major hardware as well. These dedicated folks have managed upgrade to the WSR-88D radar we operate in to always put mission first, which is the Floyd County, and implementing a “Weather protection of life and property for all the Story” graphic on our web page that is people we serve in our 40-county area of updated once per day. We added over a responsibility, despite these recent unique dozen new Weather Ready Nation challenges both at work and in the greater Ambassadors (and if your organization is world. interested in learning more about this Here’s hoping we get to see some of you program and becoming a WRN Ambassador when it is safe to do so again later in 2021, please visit this link). We held a virtual Open because you all help remind us of why we are House last fall, a virtual media workshop, and here, doing what we are doing! SPRING 2021 BLUE RIDGE BAROMETER PAGEPAGE 2 2 Review of the 2020-2021 Winter Season Robert Anthony Beasley, Lead Forecaster Following one of the mildest winters on cold of any extent or duration. By the same record in 2019-2020, meteorologists and token, there were no anomalously warm residents of the area alike were wondering periods of note either. Below zero what the 2020-2021 winter would bring. temperatures, which were fairly common in Could we expect record cold temperatures the 2014-2015 winter, failed to appear again and snow, which we have not seen in any this winter. Of the three meteorological recent winters, or would it bring more warm winter months - December, January, and and wet conditions as we have witnessed the February - only February proved to be a bit past couple of winters? With El Niño in play below average and simultaneously brought in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern, the most snow and ice to the area. there were certainly going to be some Speaking of ice, it was perhaps one of the unknowns. After all, we have to go back to most ice-prone winters in recent memory. 2018 to find any “significant” snow storms Several freezing rain and sleet events were that would bring a foot or more of snow to a noted from December through February, but substantial portion of the forecast area during back-to-back ice storms in mid-February one event. were perhaps the most notable winter As it turns out, the winter ended up being weather phenomena observed this past fairly average with respect to temperature, winter. There was significant damage to trees but yet another in the long string of and power lines along the southern Blue consecutive wet (rainy) winters with minimal Ridge and into Southside Virginia and snow. While nearly everyone saw more snow adjacent areas of the Virginia and North than what was observed the previous year, Carolina Piedmont area. These back-to-back snowfall for the winter remained below ice storms in mid-February left hundreds of average, in general. While for some it may trees uprooted, split in half, or with numerous have seemed like a snowy winter, in reality, broken limbs. A ride along the Blue Ridge snowfall was still below average for most, Parkway from Rocky Knob to Bent Mountain despite experiencing nearly three times the proves this point, as even today, the sides of amount of snowfall observed during the the Parkway are strewn with hundreds of 2019-2020 winter. After all, three times an downed limbs and trees. Many in these areas inch or two is still not much snow! also suffered extensive power outages during the height of the ice storms in mid-February. With respect to temperature, there were some notable bouts of cold, but still no extreme SPRING 2021 BLUE RIDGE BAROMETER PAGEPAGE 33 The following tables provide more detail regarding the temperature, precipitation, and snowfall patterns of the 2020-2021 winter season. Shades of red indicate warmer than normal temperatures, while blue equals cooler than normal. Cells shaded in green indicate wetter than normal, while brown reflects drier than normal. Table 1 is a comparison of 2020-2021 winter temperatures (from December-February) with 2019- 2020 temperatures and the 30-year (1980-2010) normal winter average temperature. Station 2020-2021 2019-2020 Normal Winter Winter Winter Average Average Average Temperature Temperature Temperature Roanoke 39.2 42.8 38.3 Lynchburg 38.6 42.6 36.9 Danville 39.8 43.5 39.5 Bluefield 32.8 38.3 36.2 Blacksburg 33.9 38.2 33.1 Table 1 Tables 2-4 provide the average temperatures around the region in December, January, and February 2021, as compared to those in 2020 and the average normal temperature. Station Dec 2020 Dec 2019 December Normals Roanoke 40.7 43.1 39.0 Lynchburg 40.0 43.0 37.6 Danville 40.9 43.5 40.1 Bluefield 34.2 39.9 37.2 Blacksburg 34.9 38.7 33.8 Table 2 Station Jan 2021 Jan 2020 January Normals Roanoke 38.1 41.5 36.6 Lynchburg 37.4 41.1 35.1 Danville 38.7 42.6 37.7 Bluefield 31.5 37.3 34.2 Blacksburg 32.8 37.2 31.5 Table 3 SPRING 2021 BLUE RIDGE BAROMETER PAGEPAGE 44 Station Feb 2021 Feb 2020 February Normals Roanoke 38.7 43.9 39.6 Lynchburg 38.4 43.6 38.2 Danville 39.8 44.4 40.9 Bluefield 32.8 37.4 37.7 Blacksburg 33.9 38.9 34.2 Table 4 Table 5 is a comparison of the liquid precipitation and snowfall for 2020-2021 with that of 2019- 2020, as well as what is normal for the forecast area. Note the significant increase in snowfall this past winter (highlighted in bold). Station 2020-2021 2019-2020 Normal 2020- 2019- Winter Winter Winter 2021 2020 Precipitation Precipitation Precipitation Snowfall Snowfall Roanoke 12.19 10.18 8.75 10.3 1.6 Lynchburg 13.40 12.20 9.31 8.9 T Danville 12.44 13.34 9.70 5.8 1.6 Bluefield 11.18 9.73 8.57 44.9 11.4 Blacksburg 11.41 11.34 8.84 23.1 4.8 Table 5 Tables 6-8 compare the liquid precipitation and snowfall for 2020-2021 to 2019-2020 and what is normal for the individual months of December, January, and February, respectively.