ALLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONS PROGRAM San Diego, CA January 4–6, 2013 Contract negotiations, management and meeting arrangements for ASSA meetings are conducted by the American Economic Association. Participants should be aware that the media has open access to all sessions and events at the meetings. i Thanks to the 2013 American Economic Association Program Committee Members Nicholas Barberis Stefano DellaVigna Kathryn Dominguez Erica Field Don Fullerton Claudia Goldin Mikhail Golosov Gordon Hanson James Hines Seema Jayachandran Anil Kashyap Larry Katz Rosa Matzkin Chris Paxson Nancy Rose Bruce Sacerdote David Weil Justin Wolfers Cover Art—“San Diego, Distant Skyline” by Kevin E. Cahill Oil Pastel and ( Colored Pencil, 15 x 14 . Kevin is a research economist with the Sloan ″ ″ ) Center on Aging and Work at Boston College and a managing director at ECONorthwest in Boise, ID. Kevin invites you to visit his personal website at www.kcahillstudios.com. ii Contents General Information................................iv ASSA Hotels .................................... ix Listing of Advertisers and Exhibitors ............... xxiii ASSA Executive Officers..........................xxv Summary of Sessions by Organization .............. xviii Daily Program of Events ............................1 Program of Sessions Thursday, January 3 .........................27 Friday, January 4 ...........................28 Saturday, January 5 ........................138 Sunday, January 6 .........................252 Subject Area Index...............................329 Index of Participants . 332 iii General Information PROGRAM SCHEDULES A listing of sessions where papers will be presented and another covering activities such as business meetings and receptions are provided in this program. Admittance is limited to those wearing badges. Each listing is arranged chronologically by date and time of the activity; the hotel and room location for each session and function are indicated. CONVENTION FACILITIES Twenty hotels are being used for all housing. Sessions and other convention functions are in the Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego and the San Diego Marriott Marquis and Marina. A map of San Diego indicating the locations of the hotels, an alphabetical listing of function rooms within the hotels, and hotel floor plans are in the next section of this book. Headquarters hotel is the Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego and the Co- headquarters is the San Diego Marriott Marquis and Marina. Central convention facilities such as registration, exhibits and message and information are located in the Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego. Details follow. The $25 per night premium for the headquarters hotel is rebated to ASSA to help cover the cost of the meetings. REGISTRATION Everyone must register including speakers and discussants. Identification badges are required for admission to all sessions and activities. On-site and Pre-registrants may pick up their registration packets at the Manchester Grand Hyatt, Douglas Pavilion D, Ground Level. On-site registration fee is $125. Full time student registration fee is $55. Pre-registration and On-site registration booths are open as follows: Thursday, January 3 2:00 pm to 9:00 pm* Friday, January 4 7:45 am to 5:00 pm* Saturday, January 5 8:00 am to 5:00 pm* Sunday, January 6 8:00 am to 1:00 pm Show Office II, Second Level ( ) *On-site registration line closes fifteen minutes prior to closing each day. SPOUSES There is no spouse program. Spouses wishing to attend any of the meetings may register for $55. If your spouse needs an affiliation on his her badge, he she must register separately and pay the full fee. / / PROFESSIONAL PLACEMENT SERVICE Interview tables are located in the Marriott Marquis and Marina, Marriott Hall, North Tower, Lobby Level. Hours are four full days, from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm. Everyone admitted to the interviewing tables (including interviewers) must register. There iv is no on-site placement registration nor will there be an on-site message exchange center. All correspondence should take place using email, including interview scheduling, prior to your arrival in San Diego. However, on-site contact can be conducted by using the ASSA on-line hotel directory available at www.vanderbilt. edu/AEA and click on Annual Meeting. You may also check with the Disclosure Code Booth at the Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego, Douglas Pavilion D, or San Diego Marriott Marquis & Marina, Marriott Hall, North Tower, Lobby Level. ASSA does not provide computers on-site. The Professional Placement Service is conducted and sponsored free of charge through the efforts of the California Department of Employment Security and AEA. EXHIBITS Exhibits are located in Manchester Grand Hyatt, Douglas Pavilion, Ground Level. The Exhibit area may be visited during the following hours: Friday, January 4 9:00 am to 6:00 pm Saturday, January 5 9:00 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 6 9:00 am to 1:00 pm MESSAGE AND INFORMATION CENTER The Message and Information Center is located in the Manchester Grand Hyatt, Douglas Foyer, Ground Level and is open during the following hours: Thursday, January 3 2:00 pm to 9:00 pm Friday, January 4 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Saturday, January 5 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 6 8:00 am to 2:00 pm Messages may be transmitted in person or by telephone during these hours. The number to call is 619-232-1234 ext. 4460. FEE AND INVITATION EVENTS The “Daily Program of Events” section of this program lists fee and invitation events, membership meetings, and other social functions in chronological order. Events for which a fee is charged or which may be attended by invitation only are noted. Tickets were sold to the following open events: AEA AFA Joint Luncheon Friday, January 4, 12:30 pm / Manchester Grand Hyatt, Elizabeth Ballroom D & E ASE Presidential Breakfast Saturday, January 5, 7:45 am Marriott Marquis and Marina, Santa Rosa AEA Luncheon Honoring Saturday, January 5, 12:30 pm the 2011 Nobel Laureates Manchester Grand Hyatt, Elizabeth Ballroom D & E AREUEA Presidential Saturday, January 5, 12:30 pm Luncheon Marriott Marquis and Marina, San Diego, Ballroom A Tickets to each of these events were ordered on the pre-registration form. Tickets may be available at the door if an event is not sold out. v CONVENTION STAFF HEADQUARTERS Headquarters for the ASSA Convention is located in the Manchester Grand Hyatt, Show Office II, Second Level. The hours of operation are: Thursday, January 3 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm Friday, January 4 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Saturday, January 5 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 6 8:00 am to 1:00 pm Headquarters staff should be alerted to any problems associated with the operation of the convention. Special notices concerning the program and room changes will be posted there. To reach Convention Headquarters by phone call 619-358-6802. An Information Desk is located in the Marriott Marquis and Marina, South Tower, Third Level, Marina Ballroom Foyer. The information table is open Friday and Saturday from 8:00 am until 5:00 pm and on Sunday from 8:00 am until 12:00 pm. PRESS Press Registration is located in the Show Office II. Show Office IV, Second Level is available for lounging and Show Office V is available to use for interviewing. Press must schedule an appointment to use Show Office V at Show Office II. Press Registration is open during the following hours: Thursday, January 3 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm Friday, January 4 7:30 am to 5:00 pm Saturday, January 5 7:30 am to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 6 7:30 am to 12:00 noon BUSINESS CENTERS Manchester Grand Hyatt Lobby Level Daily 7:00 am–7:30 pm Marriott Marquis & Marina Lobby Level M–F 7:00 am–7:00 pm, Sat–Sun 7:00 am–5:00 pm Coronado Island Marriott Lobby Level Daily 7:00 am–6:00 pm Hilton San Diego Bayfront 3rd Floor M–F 7:00 am–8:00 pm, Sat–Sun 9:00 am– 4:00 pm Horton Grand does not have a business center. All other hotels in the room block have computer centers that are open 24 hours with a key. Above hours are subject to change. DISCLOSURE CODES The Disclosure Code Information Booths are located in the Manchester Grand Hyatt, Ground Level, Douglas Pavilion D and the Marriott Marquis and Marina, North Tower, Lobby Level, Marriott Hall Foyer. You must know the disclosure code to obtain the room/suite number. Those were distributed by Employers. You may also check on the AEA website at www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA and click on Annual Meeting/Disclosure Code Information. vi SHUTTLE & WATER TAXI ASSA will provide shuttle service from the Sheraton Hotel & Marina to the Manchester Grand Hyatt, stopping by the Holiday Inn on the Bay, mornings and evenings only. We will run a continuous shuttle from the Sheraton Suites Hotel to the Manchester Grand Hyatt to facilitate job candidate movement. Coronado Island Marriott Resort is easily accessed by the water taxi. Thursday the water taxi leaves the Coronado Island Marriott Resort starting at 3:00 pm and runs every 30 minutes with the last water taxi leaving the Marriott Marina at 9:15 pm. Friday and Saturday the water taxi leaves the Coronado Island Marriott Resort starting at 7:00 am and runs every 30 minutes with the last water taxi leaving the Marriott Marina at 8:15 pm. Sunday the water taxi leaves the Coronado Island Marriott Resort starting at 7:00 am and runs every 30 minutes with the last water taxi leaving the Marriott Marina at 4:15 pm. The water taxi is approximately 8 minutes. Cost is $6 each way for adults and $3 each way for children 5–11 years old.