CIVILRIGHTSLIBERALISMANDPOLITICALREALIGNMENT 483 CivilRightsLiberalismandthe SuppressionofaRepublican PoliticalRealignmentinthe UnitedStates,1972to1996 ClemBrooks Indiana University Arguably the most dramatic trend in U.S. public opinion during the past 30 years has been Americans’ liberalizing attitudes toward the civil rights of African Ameri- cans, women, and more recently, gays and lesbians. Do these changing attitudes have any behavioral or organizational effects, or are they of little consequence for understanding social and political changes since the 1960s? While an influential strain of research has questioned the causal significance of trends in civil rights attitudes, past studies have not developed a systematic test of relevant hypotheses. This study presents such a test, analyzing the effects of trends in civil rights attitudes on an important type of behavior (presidential vote choice) and on a major type of organization (political parties). Guided by theories of issue voting and political realignment, results show that changing attitudes have had significant behavioral and organizational effects on vote choice and election outcomes since 1972. In par- ticular, the margins of Republican presidential victories in the 1980s were sup- pressed by liberal trends in attitudes, while Democratic presidential victories in the 1990s depended upon these trends. These findings lead to a better understanding of the substantial but poorly understood effects of changing attitudes toward civil rights and of the widely debated scenario of a Republican political realignment. ne of the largest trends in U.S. pub- Schuman et al. 1997; Smith and Sheatsley Olic opinion during the past 30 years 1984), women (Ferree 1974; Mason, Czajka, has been Americans’ changing attitudes to- and Arber 1976; Mason and Lu 1988; ward the civil rights of African Americans Thornton and Freedman 1979), and more re- (Farley 1997; Firebaugh and Davis 1988; cently, gays and lesbians (Yang 1997; Zaller 1992, chap. 12). These trends are distin- Direct all correspondence to Clem Brooks, De- guished by three features. First, they involve partment of Sociology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 47405 ([email protected]). beliefs about general, normative principles Data and codebooks from the American National rather than preferences about what govern- Election Studies were provided by the Inter-uni- ment policies should be adopted to imple- versity Consortium for Political and Social Re- ment such principles.1 Second, they repre- search. Data and codebooks from the General Social Surveys were provided by the Roper Cen- Timpone, three ASR reviewers, a deputy editor, ter. Responsibility for the analysis and interpreta- and Editor Glenn Firebaugh for their comments. tion of the data rests solely with the author. A 1 The “principle versus policy” distinction has version of this paper was presented at the 1999 been used extensively to study racial attitudes meeting of the American Sociological Associa- (Schuman et al. 1997, chap. 3; Sniderman, tion in Chicago. I thank Arthur Alderson, David Brody, and Tetlock 1991, chap. 4). It is relevant Brady, Paul Burstein, Thomas DiPrete, Martin to the current study, given that attitudes toward Gilens, Andrew Greeley, Michael Hout, Jeff civil rights principles but not attitudes for or Manza, Whitney Pope, Brian Powell, Kent Red- against government policies have experienced ding, John Skrentny, Marylee Taylor, Richard liberal trends. AmericanSociologicalReview,2000,Vol.65(August:483–505) 483 484 AMERICANSOCIOLOGICALREVIEW sent liberal shifts involving the extension of Taken together, these changes in attitudes rights to members of a particular group who appear to represent a profound transforma- have historically been denied such rights. tion. Surprisingly, however, the behavioral Third, these trends have not given rise to an and organizational consequences of these illiberal reversal: When public support for a trends—indeed, whether there have been any specific group’s civil rights increases, it has such consequences—are poorly understood. tended not to decline, oftentimes continuing This partly reflects growing scholarly inter- to rise or stabilizing at a high level (Smith est in other types of attitudes, especially 1990). among analysts of race.4 But it also stems The magnitude of these trends can be best from a prevailing tendency to view trends in appreciated when it is compared with the civil rights attitudes as superficial in nature high levels of intolerance found by opinion or of little causal consequence. researchers in the 1950s (Farley 1997; Jackman’s (1978, 1994; Jackman and Schuman et al. 1997; Stouffer [1955] 1963). Muha 1984) influential work offers the most For instance, where once whites were un- comprehensive formulations of this thesis. willing to extend the most basic civil rights In an early study, Jackman (1978) presents to African Americans, they now overwhelm- what can be termed the “superficial liberal- ingly endorse racial equality as a matter of ism” version of this thesis. While her ex- principle.2 Likewise, a nearly universal ac- plicit focus is on the relationship between ceptance of highly restrictive gender roles education and support for African Ameri- has given way to much greater willingness cans’ civil rights, her interpretation of this (among both men and women) to grant relationship implies that liberal responses to women equal access to political and eco- survey questions about civil rights are often nomic opportunities (Mason and Lu 1988; superficially held and incapable of dispos- Page and Shapiro 1992). And in recent years, ing individuals to act consistently on the ba- despite little change in beliefs about the ac- sis of their professed beliefs. This thesis ceptability of homosexuality, there has been calls into question the sincerity of liberal re- a significant increase in public support for sponses to civil rights items as well as their the rights of gays and lesbians in employ- significance as a causal factor influencing ment and housing.3 the behavior of individuals. Jackman’s sub- sequent work (Jackman 1994; Jackman and 2 Suggesting widespread public acceptance of Muha 1984) suggests a second version of Jim Crow laws, 60 percent of whites in 1963 this thesis, which hypothesizes that because agreed that “whites have a right to keep Blacks dominant groups’ interests dispose them to out of their neighborhoods.” The percentage adopt liberal ideologies primarily to legiti- agreeing decreased to 40 in 1976, and decreased mate their advantageous positions, changing further to just 13 percent in 1996 (Schuman et al. civil rights attitudes are by themselves gen- 1997:106–107). This liberalizing trend has not erally insufficient to lead to changes in ma- extended to policy attitudes, however; relatively jor organizations and institutions. While this stable majorities have opposed government pro- grams designed to implement racial equality since the 1960s (Schuman et al. 1997; Steeh and 4 These scholars have increasingly turned to Krysan 1996). questions about symbolic racism (Sears et al. 3 While attitudes toward gays and lesbians re- 1997), conflict among racial groups (Bobo and flect high levels of negative affect compared with Hutchings 1996), and attitudes toward race-re- attitudes toward other major social groups lated public policies (Kinder and Sanders 1996; (Sherrill 1996), support for the position that “ho- Sniderman et al. 1991). This important research mosexuals should have equal rights in terms of has begun to develop a systematic portrait of the job opportunities” has nevertheless increased origins and consequences of racism (Bobo 1997), from 56 percent in 1977 to 83 percent in 1996 but it does not answer questions about the conse- (Yang 1997:498). The persistence and degree of quences of growing support for the civil rights negative affect make such increases in support of African Americans (and also for women and for gay and lesbian civil rights all the more note- gays/lesbians) despite the persistence of gener- worthy, providing another instance of the “prin- ally low levels of support for policy implementa- ciple versus policy” phenomenon that character- tion or patterns of negative affect toward specific izes civil rights-related attitudes. groups. CIVILRIGHTSLIBERALISMANDPOLITICALREALIGNMENT 485 “insignificant liberalism” thesis makes no consequences. In addition to contributing to assumptions about the sincerity of liberal at- the study of political change, such an analy- titudes, it casts doubt on the latter as a factor sis provides a systematic means of taking up capable of contributing to social change. the challenge presented by the “superficial Although Jackman’s work presents the liberalism” and “insignificant liberalism” most explicit statement, much of contempo- theses. If the superficial liberalism thesis is rary research on racial attitudes has implic- true, we should expect that the political pref- itly discounted the significance of changing erences of “superficial” liberals will differ attitudes toward women’s and minorities’ little from those of their more explicitly il- civil rights since the 1960s. By raising the liberal counterparts, leading to no significant possibility that changes in civil rights atti- association between civil rights attitudes and tudes are either cognitively superficial or too voting behavior. Conversely, finding such a insignificant as a causal factor to influence relationship would indicate that liberal re- social change,