I B S International Biometrical Society Eastern North American Region Program & Abstracts Contents Section Page Acknowledgements 3 Officials and Committees 4 Representatives 4 Student Awards 5 Special Thanks 6 Presidential Invited Speaker 7 IMS Medallion Lecturer 7 Short Courses 8 Tutorials 11 Roundtables 12 Program Summary 14 Scientific Program 19 Abstracts 49 Index 194 Floor Plans 208 Notes 210 2 Aknowledgements NAR would like to acknowledge the generous support of the 2009 Local Arrangements ECommittee, chaired by Chen-Pin Wang, the Veterans Evidence-based Research, Dissemination, & ImplementationCenter, South Texas Veterans Health Care System, the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, the Department of Management Science and Statistics, UT San Antonio, and our student volunteers. ENAR is grateful for the support of the National Institutes of Health (National Cancer Institute, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences) and of the ENAR Junior Researchers’ Workshop Coalition (Columbia University, Harvard University, The Johns Hopkins University, North Carolina State University, The Ohio State University, The University of Michigan, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and The University of Wisconsin). We gratefully acknowledge the invaluable support and generosity of our Sponsors and Exhibitors. Sponsors Exhibitors Abbott Laboratories Amgen, Inc. Amgen, Inc. ASA – SIAM Series AstraZeneca/MedImmune The Cambridge Group Ltd. Biogen Idec Cambridge University Press Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals CRC Press – Taylor & Francis Group LLC Cepahlon, Inc. Cytel Inc. Eli Lilly and Company Food and Drug Administration – GlaxoSmithKline Center for Devices and Radiological Health Novartis Pharmaceuticals Inc. Kforce Clinical Research Pfizer, Inc. Oxford University Press PPD, Inc. RPS, Inc. Proctor & Gamble SAS ReSearch Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. SAS Institute Rho, Inc. SAS Institute Inc. – JMP Division sanofi-aventis Smith Hanley Associates LLC SAS Springer Schering-Plough StataCorp LP Smith Hanley Associates LLC TIBCO Software Inc. Statistics Collaborative, Inc. Wiley-Blackwell Wyeth Research 3 Aknowledgements OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ENAR REGIONAL MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL OF THE January – December 2009 INTERNATIONAL BIOMETRIC SOCIETY EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE -- OFFICERS Marie Davidian, Susan Ellenberg, Louise Ryan, Timothy G. Gregoire, President Lance Waller Roderick Little, Linda Young Past President Eric (Rocky) Feuer President-Elect Sharon-Lise Normand Biometrics Editor Marie Davidian Secretary (2009-2010) Maura Stokes Biometrics Co-Editors Geert Molenberghs, Thomas A. Louis, Treasurer (2008-2009) Scarlett Bellamy and David Zucker Biometric Bulletin Editor Roslyn Stone REGIONAL COMMITTEE (RECOM) JABES Editor Carl Schwarz ENAR Correspondent President (Chair) Lance Waller for the Biometric Bulletin Lillian Lin Eight ordinary members ENAR Executive Director Kathy Hoskins (elected to 3-year terms): + Amy Herring (RAB Chair) International Biometric Society Business Manager Dee Ann Walker 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 Karen Bandeen-Roche Jianwen Cai Daniel Heitajn REPRESENTATIVES F. Dubois Bowman Bradley Carlin José Pinheiro Paul Rathouz Peter Macdonald Joanna Shih COMMITTEE OF PRESIDENTS OF STATISTICAL SOCIETIES (COPSS) REGIONAL MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL OF THE ENAR Representatives INTERNATIONAL BIOMETRIC SOCIETY Lance Waller (President) Eric Feuer (Past-President) Sharon-Lise Normand (President-Elect) Marie Davidian, Susan Ellenberg, Louise Ryan, Timothy G. Gregoire, Roderick Little ENAR Standing and Continuing Committees APPOINTED MEMBERS OF REGIONAL ADVISORY BOARD Nominations Committee (3-year terms) Lisa LaVange, Chair (2008-2009) Joan Chmiel (2007-2008) Chair: Amy Herring Joel Greenhouse (2007-2008) Co-Chair: Hormuzd Katki Jane Pendergast (2007 Chair; 2008) Karen Bandeen-Roche (2008-2009) 2007-2009 2008-2010 2009-2011 Elizabeth Margosches (2008-2009) Christopher S. Coffey Karla V. Ballman Dipankar Bandyopadhyay Hormuzd A. Katki Craig Borkowf Andrew Finley Sponsorship Committee Lan Kong Avital Cnaan Haoda Fu Christine Clark, Chair Yi Li Kimberly Drews Ronald Gangnon Thomas Kelleher Lillian Lin Matthew Gurka Eugene Huang Kannan Natarajan Laura Meyerson Monica Jackson Reneé Moore Gene Pennello Robert Johnson Roger Peng ENAR Representative on the ASA Committee on Meetings Tamara Pinkett Robert Lyles Jennifer Schumi Maura Stokes, Committee Vice-Chair John Preisser Peter Song Brian Smith (January 2008-December 2010) Douglas E. Schaubel Ram Tawari AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE (Joint with WNAR) PROGRAMS Terms were through February 22, 2011 2009 Spring Meeting – San Antonio, TX Section E, Geology and Geography Carol Gotway Crawford Program Chair: Brent Coull Section N, Medical Sciences Judy Bebchuk Program Co-Chair – Mahlet Tadesse Section G, Biological Sciences Geof Givens Local Arrangements Chair: Chen-Pin Wang Section U, Statistics Mary Foulkes Section O, Agriculture Mary Christman 2010 Spring Meeting – New Orleans, LA Program Chair: Michael Daniels NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL SCIENCES Program Co-Chair: Jeffrey Morris (ENAR President is also an ex-officio member) Board of Trustees Local Arrangements Chairs: Brian Marx and Julia Volaufova Members: Lance Waller, ENAR President 2009 Joint Statistical Meeting 2010 Joint Statistical Meeting Donna Brogan Lloyd Edwards Yulei He 4 ENAR 2009 Spring Meeting San Antonio, Texas Aknowledgements Workshop for Junior Researchers DISTINGUISHED STUDENT Paper Award WINNERS Amy Herring (Chair), University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill DuBois Bowman, Emory University Van Ryzin Award Winner Brent Coull, Harvard University Gordana Derado, Emory University Marie Davidian, North Carolina State University Francesca Dominici, The Johns Hopkins University Award Winners Yi Li, Harvard University Hongyuan Cao, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Xihong Lin, Harvard University Howard Chang, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Doug Schaubel, The University of Michigan Ping Chen, University of Missouri- Columbia Lance Waller, Emory University Yu-Jen Cheng, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Yeonseung Chung, Harvard School of Public Health 2009 Fostering Diversity in Biostatistics Workshop Ramon Garcia, University of North Carolina at Durham Reneé H. Moore (co-chair) Jian Guo, University of Michigan Adriana Perez (co-chair) Lei Hua, Univeristy of Iowa Mourad Atlas Yimei Li, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Scarlett Bellamy Ziyue Liu, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine DuBois Bowman Jessica Myers, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Amita Manatunga Amy Nowacki, Cleveland Clinic Foundation Sastry Pantula Jane Paik, Columbia University Dionne Price Nicholas Reich, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health DeJuran Richardson Ali Shojaie, University of Michigan Louise Ryan Peng Wei, University of Minnesota Nagambal Shah Yiyun Zhang, Penn State University Keith Soper Bingqing Zhou, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Lance Waller Bin Zhu, University of Michigan Distinguished Student Paper Awards Committee Lisa LaVange, Ph.D. (Chair 2008) Sudipto Banerjee, Ph.D. (2006-2008) Christopher R. Bilder, Ph.D. (2007-2009) Nilanjan Chatterjee, Ph.D. (2008-2010) Elizabeth S. Garrett-Mayer, Ph.D. (2006-2008) Debashis Ghosh, Ph.D. (2007-2009) Liang Li, Ph.D. (2006-2008) Yi Li, Ph.D. (2007-2009) Robert Lyles, Ph.D. (2008-2010) Laura J Meyerson, Ph.D. (2008-2010) Jane Pendergast, Ph.D. (2008 substitute) Heping Zhang, Ph.D. (2007-2009) Visit the ENAR website (www.enar.org) for the most up to date source of information on ENAR activities. 5 2009 Special Thanks 2009 ENAR Program Committee Brent Coull (Chair), Harvard University Mahlet Tadesse (Co-Chair), Georgetown University Jared Christensen, Wyeth Pharmaceutical Erin Conlon, University of Massachusetts at Amherst Abi Ekangaki, Eli Lilly and Company Jonathan French, Pfizer Misrak Gezmu, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Joseph Hogan, Brown University Andrew Lawson, Medical University of South Carolina Loni Philip (student assistant), Harvard University Dionne Price, Food & Drug Administration Lance Waller, Emory University ASA Section Representatives Patrick G. Arbogast (Section on Teaching Statistics in the Health Sciences), Vanderbilt University Karla Ballman (Section on Statistical Education), Mayo Clinic Jinbo Chen (Biometrics Section), University of Pennsylvania William Davis (Survey Research and Methodology Section), National Cancer Institute Bonnie Ghosh-Dastidar (Health Policy Statistics Section), Rand Corporation Myron Katzoff (Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security), National Center for Health Statistics Steve Rathbun (Section on Statistics and the Environment),University of Georgia Matilde Sanchez (Biopharmaceutical Section), Arena Pharmaceuticals Elizabeth R. Zell (Section on Statistics in Epidemiology), Centers for Disease Control & Prevention IMS Program Chair Tianxi Cai, Harvard University ENAR Education Advisory Committee Greg Campbell, Food and Drug Administration Marie Davidian, North Carolina State University Jose Pinhiero, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Local Arrangements Committee Chen-Pin Wang (Chair), University of Texas Health Science Center ENAR Student Awards Committee Lisa LaVange (Chair), University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ENAR Diversity Workshop Committee Renee’ Moore (Co-Chair), University of