November 7, 2017 TOWN OF GRIMSBY TRANSIT INVESTIGATION STUDY DRAFT FINAL REPORT Submitted to: Town of Grimsby 160 Livigston Avenue Grimsby, Ontario L3M 4G3 i Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Study Purpose .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Background .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 The Business Case for Transit................................................................................................... 2 2.0 Existing and Planned Transit Services 5 2.1 Local Transportation Services .................................................................................................. 5 2.2 GO Transit ................................................................................................................................ 6 2.3 Niagara Region Transit ............................................................................................................. 7 2.4 Intercity Coach and Rail ........................................................................................................... 9 2.5 Hamilton Street Railway ........................................................................................................ 10 2.6 Growth Patterns ..................................................................................................................... 11 3.0 Community Consultation 17 3.1 Telephone Survey................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 Online Survey ......................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Summary of Survey Results .................................................................................................... 22 3.4 Focus Groups .......................................................................................................................... 23 3.5 Public Information Centre #1 ................................................................................................. 24 3.6 Public Information Centre #2 ................................................................................................. 27 4.0 Peer Review 31 4.1 Basic Service Characteristics .................................................................................................. 31 4.2 Service Utilization .................................................................................................................. 33 4.3 Financial Performance ........................................................................................................... 34 5.0 Transit Network Design 37 5.1 Service Concept Evaluation .................................................................................................... 37 5.2 Service Hour Requirements ................................................................................................... 42 5.3 Route Design Principles .......................................................................................................... 44 5.4 Destinations ........................................................................................................................... 45 5.5 Network Design ...................................................................................................................... 48 5.6 Service Strategy Summary ..................................................................................................... 71 Town Of Grimsby Transit Investigation Study - Draft Final Report November 2017 – 16-4216 ii 6.0 Demand Forecasting 73 6.1 Forecasted Local Transit Demand .......................................................................................... 73 6.2 Forecasted Transit Demand to GO Transit ............................................................................. 75 6.3 Forecasted Overall Transit Demand ....................................................................................... 77 7.0 Service Delivery 79 7.1 Option 1 – Municipally-Owned and Operated System .......................................................... 79 7.2 Option 2 - Privately Contracted System ................................................................................. 80 7.3 Option 3 - Extension of Hamilton Street Railway Service ...................................................... 82 7.4 Assessment of Service Operating Structure........................................................................... 83 7.5 Summary ................................................................................................................................ 84 8.0 Implementation Plan 87 8.1 Fleet ....................................................................................................................................... 87 8.2 Stop Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 92 8.3 Terminal Infrastructure .......................................................................................................... 94 9.0 Financial Analysis 97 9.1 Operating Costs ...................................................................................................................... 97 9.2 Ridership and Fare Revenue .................................................................................................. 98 9.3 Municipal Investment in Transit ............................................................................................ 99 9.4 Other Funding Sources ......................................................................................................... 101 9.5 Capital Costs ......................................................................................................................... 104 10.0 A Note on Transit Accessibility for Persons with Disabilities 107 10.1 Background .......................................................................................................................... 107 10.2 Potential Specialized Transit Service.................................................................................... 108 11.0 Conclusion and Next Steps 111 11.1 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 111 11.2 Next Steps ............................................................................................................................ 112 Town Of Grimsby Transit Investigation Study - Draft Final Report November 2017 – 16-4216 iii Figures Figure 1: GO Transit Route 12 ................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2: Hamilton Rapid Transit Conceptual Plan .................................................................................. 11 Figure 3: Grimsby Urban Development ................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4: Stoney Creek Land Use Plan ..................................................................................................... 14 Figure 5: Fruitland-Winona Secondary Plan Development Area ............................................................ 15 Figure 6: Overall Support for Local Transit in Grimsby ........................................................................... 18 Figure 7: Support for Property Tax Increases to Local Support Transit .................................................. 18 Figure 8: Transit Usage Likelihood by Service Type................................................................................. 19 Figure 9: Commuting Destination ........................................................................................................... 20 Figure 10: Local Transit Destinations ...................................................................................................... 25 Figure 11: Transit Design Options ........................................................................................................... 27 Figure 12: Locations of Schools, Seniors’ Residences and Community Centres in Grimsby ................... 45 Figure 13: Existing Residential and Employment Density ....................................................................... 47 Figure 14: Recommended Pilot Project (Year 1) Transit Network .......................................................... 49 Figure 15: Recommended Short-Term (Year 3) Transit Network ............................................................ 52 Figure 16: Recommended Medium-Term (Year 5) Transit Network ....................................................... 54 Figure 17: Route 1 Catchment Area ........................................................................................................ 57 Figure 18: Route 1 Beamsville Extension Catchment Area ..................................................................... 60 Figure 19: Route 2 Catchment Area (Short-Term Network) ................................................................... 64 Figure 20: Route 2 Catchment Area (Medium-Term Network)............................................................... 65 Figure 21: Route 3 Catchment Area ........................................................................................................ 68 Figure 22: Medium-Term Inter-Municipal Transit Network ...................................................................