EXISTING CONDITIONS AND GROWTH TRENDS REPORT Existing Conditions and Growth Trends Report Lexington Sustainable Growth Study July 13, 2021 Prepared for: The LFUCG Sustainable Growth Task Force Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services Inc. EHI Consultants MXD Development Strategists Urban3 EXISTING CONDITIONS AND GROWTH TRENDS REPORT Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................10 2.0 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ..............................................................................................11 2.1 POPULATION ........................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 HOUSEHOLDS .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.3 AGE PROFILE ........................................................................................................................................................... 14 2.4 RACE AND ETHNICITY ........................................................................................................................................ 17 2.5 INCOME ...................................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.0 EMPLOYMENT...............................................................................................................19 3.1 EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1 Fayette County Location Quotient .......................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 Lexington Region (excluding Fayette County) ................................................................... 23 3.2 COMMUTER PATTERNS ...................................................................................................................................... 26 4.0 LAND USE ANALYSIS .....................................................................................................29 4.1 EXISTING LAND ...................................................................................................................................................... 29 4.1.1 Zoning by Class ............................................................................................................................... 29 4.1.2 Existing Land Uses by Description .......................................................................................... 35 4.2 VACANT LAND ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 4.2.1 Vacant Land by Zoning Classification .................................................................................... 45 4.2.2 Vacant Land by Land Use Description ................................................................................... 50 4.2.3 Vacant Land by Land Use Description and Subarea ........................................................ 53 5.0 HOUSING OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................54 5.1 EXISTING HOUSING STOCK ............................................................................................................................... 54 5.2 REAL ESTATE STATISTICS ................................................................................................................................ 58 5.3 HOUSING OCCUPANCY AND COST ................................................................................................................. 65 5.4 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................... 67 5.4.1 Affordable Housing Subsidies ................................................................................................... 67 EXISTING CONDITIONS AND GROWTH TRENDS REPORT 5.4.2 Market Based Housing Affordability ...................................................................................... 68 6.0 COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................69 6.1 INDUSTRIAL ANALYSIS....................................................................................................................................... 69 6.2 6.2 OFFICE ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................................................... 73 6.3 RETAIL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................. 76 7.0 FISCAL PROFILE ............................................................................................................79 7.1 REVENUE................................................................................................................................................................... 79 7.2 EXPENDITURES ...................................................................................................................................................... 83 8.0 INFRASTRUCTURE AND COMMUNITY FACILITIES ........................................................86 8.1 TRANSPORTATION ............................................................................................................................................... 86 8.1.1 Roads ................................................................................................................................................... 86 8.1.2 Transit................................................................................................................................................. 86 8.2 WATER AND SEWER ............................................................................................................................................ 87 8.3 SCHOOLS ................................................................................................................................................................... 89 8.4 PUBLIC SAFETY ...................................................................................................................................................... 90 8.5 PARKS AND RECREATION ................................................................................................................................. 92 9.0 POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS ..................................................................................93 10.0 COMMERCIAL GROWTH TRENDS .................................................................................95 10.1 INDUSTRIAL GROWTH TRENDS ..................................................................................................................... 95 10.1.1 Considerations Moving Forward ............................................................................................. 95 10.1.2 Trendline Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 95 10.2 OFFICE GROWTH TRENDS ................................................................................................................................ 96 10.2.1 Considerations Moving Forward ............................................................................................. 96 10.2.2 Trendline Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 97 10.3 RETAIL GROWTH TRENDS ................................................................................................................................ 97 10.3.1 Considerations Moving Forward ............................................................................................. 97 10.3.2 Trendline Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 98 EXISTING CONDITIONS AND GROWTH TRENDS REPORT LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Fayette and Regional Population ................................................................................................................ 12 Table 2.2 Fayette and Regional Households .............................................................................................................. 14 Table 2.3 2019 Age Cohort Distribution ...................................................................................................................... 15 Table 2.4 Median Age by County ..................................................................................................................................... 15 Table 2.5. Fayette Age Cohorts by Year ........................................................................................................................ 16 Table 2.6 Racial and Ethnic Population ........................................................................................................................ 17 Table 2.7 Fayette Racial and Ethnic Composition by Year ................................................................................... 17 Table 2.8 Income and Poverty Rates by County ......................................................................................................