Assessing the potential for renewed ethnic violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A security risk analysis Atlantic Initiative Democratization Policy Council Vlado Azinović Kurt Bassuener Bodo Weber October 2011 Executive summary .................................................................................................................................................. 4 The international community role – creating a rules-free environment ....................................................................... 4 Domestic environmental factors ................................................................................................................................... 4 Potential sparks ............................................................................................................................................................. 5 Public security setting ................................................................................................................................................... 5 EUFOR – going, going, gone? ..................................................................................................................................... 7 Conclusion and recommendations ................................................................................................................................ 7 Foreword: rationale and methodology of the study ..................................................................................... 9 I. Dismantling the Dayton instruments: is the international community contributing to a rules‐free environment? ....................................................................................................................................... 10 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................ 13 II. Inflammatory political rhetoric and hate speech – political elites and the media .................. 14 State destruction, secession ........................................................................................................................................ 14 “War” .......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 The 2010 election campaign ....................................................................................................................................... 20 The Federation government-formation crisis ............................................................................................................. 21 RS referendum threat .................................................................................................................................................. 22 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................ 22 III. Capacity of state institutions and the role of political elites: serving citizens’ interests? ... 24 Performance of governments and parliaments ............................................................................................................ 24 EU Integration ............................................................................................................................................................ 24 IPA Funds ................................................................................................................................................................... 25 5+2 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Constitutional reform .................................................................................................................................................. 26 Census ......................................................................................................................................................................... 26 State access to credits ................................................................................................................................................. 26 Protecting the domestic economy ............................................................................................................................... 26 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................. 26 IV. Bosnia in the global economic crisis – moving toward social unrest? ........................................ 27 The post-war economy – structural problems and growth ......................................................................................... 27 Sliding back into crisis ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Effects of the crisis ..................................................................................................................................................... 28 Structural problems, political challenges .................................................................................................................... 28 Social interest groups – social tensions ...................................................................................................................... 29 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................. 30 V. The Armed Forces of BiH (AFBiH) ............................................................................................................ 31 Introduction and brief history ..................................................................................................................................... 31 Force structure ............................................................................................................................................................ 31 The AFBiH in the current polarized political environment ........................................................................................ 32 The regimental system – necessary containment or preserved antagonism? .............................................................. 33 Assessments of military capability ............................................................................................................................. 33 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................. 35 VI. Surplus arms and ammunition, domestic arms production, and theft ...................................... 36 Weapons/munitions production and sales .................................................................................................................. 37 Missing munitions and explosives .............................................................................................................................. 38 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................. 38 VII. The police forces in BiH ............................................................................................................................. 39 Double legacy of undemocratic policing in post-war police forces ........................................................................... 39 The police reform process: main issues and projects ................................................................................................. 39 Reform achievements and failures – the current state of policing .............................................................................. 41 The state of policing in the two entities ...................................................................................................................... 43 SIPA ........................................................................................................................................................................... 43 OSA ............................................................................................................................................................................ 44 Case studies of political interference .......................................................................................................................... 44 Rolling back reform achievements – current entity attempts ..................................................................................... 45 The international community: EUPM ........................................................................................................................ 46 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................ 47 VIII. The judiciary ................................................................................................................................................ 48 Post-war judiciary reforms ........................................................................................................................................