Agriculture and food security Africa Needs a Green Revolution Smallholder farmers on the front line of the global food crisis POLICY PAPER September 2012 Africa Progress Report 2012 POLICY PAPER ABOUT THE AFRICA PROGRESS PANEL The Africa Progress Panel (APP) consists of ten distinguished individuals from the private and public sector, who advocate on global issues of importance to Africa and the world. Mr Kofi Annan, former Secretary- General of the United Nations and Nobel laureate, chairs the APP and is closely involved in its day-to-day work. The other Panel members are Michel Camdessus, Peter Eigen, Bob Geldof, Graça Machel, Olusegun Obasanjo, Linah Mohohlo, Robert Rubin, Tidjane Thiam and Muhammad Yunus. Kofi Annan Michel Camdessus Peter Eigen Bob Geldof Graça Machel Olusegun Obasanjo Linah Mohohlo Robert Rubin Tidjane Thiam Muhammad Yunus ABOUT THE AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT The Africa Progress Report, the Africa Progress Panel’s flagship annual publication, draws on the best research and analysis available on Africa and compiles it in a refreshing and provocative manner. Through the report, the Panel recommends policy choices and actions for African policy makers, international partners and civil society organisations. This policy paper is drawn from the Africa Progress Report 2012, whose preparation and research was led by Caroline Kende-Robb (Africa Progress Panel), Kevin Watkins (Brookings Institution), Peter da Costa (Africa Progress Panel) and Richard Manning (Oxford University). Andrew Johnston (Consultant) edited the paper. Contact the Africa Progress Panel For media requests or more information, please contact: [email protected]. Website: www.africaprogresspanel.org The APP would like to acknowledge the generous support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the German Development Cooperation (GIZ) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID). 2 Africa Needs a Green Revolution TABLE OF CONTENTS Global agricultural needs: risks and opportunities for Africa 3 More people on a warming planet 4 Food prices rise, and emergencies continue 5 It’s time to end neglect of smallholder farmers 6 Farmers need help to adapt to climate change 7 The great African land grab 8 Guiding principles 11 Selected policy actions 11 We must never again witness the human tragedy that unfolded “ in the Horn of Africa. [...] Raising the productivity of smallholder farmers is critical. – Kofi Annan ” 3 POLICY PAPER GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL NEEDS: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA The global food system is under acute and rising This is well above the 20-year average, with emerging pressure – and Africa’s farmers are feeling its markets accounting for the bulk of the increase.1 By full force. There is still more than enough food in 2050, consumption will be 70 per cent above today’s the world to feed everyone. But population and level. The International Food Policy Research Institute economic growth as well as the search for low- (IFPRI) estimates that by 2050, international prices for carbon energy sources are driving up demand maize will double, while wheat and rice prices will for arable land, while climate change, ecological increase by around 60 per cent. constraints and lower levels of productivity growth in agriculture are limiting food supply. Agricultural policies in rich countries are adding to pressures on the global food system. Driven by While these emerging strains in the global food concerns over rising oil prices, energy security and system offer Africa some opportunities, they also climate change, governments have increased carry very large risks. Higher food prices could support for the production and distribution of bio- create incentives for African governments to fuels. The United States has been directing subsidies of invest in agriculture and raise productivity, or they $5.5 billion to $7.3 billion annually towards corn-based could lead to a dramatic worsening of poverty ethanol. The European Union’s Renewable Energy and malnutrition among vulnerable populations. Roadmap includes policies to promote bio-fuels for Africa’s vast untapped potential in agriculture transport and sets targets that will drive up import could become a source of rural prosperity and demand. Furthermore, rising EU demand is increasing more balanced economic growth, or it could act production and land use in developing regions, as a magnet for more speculative investments, land including Africa. The net effect of the EU and US grabs and the displacement of local communities. policies is that more of their agricultural production will be directed to domestic markets while their demand Carbon markets might open up opportunities for imports will rise. for small farmers to benefit from climate change mitigation efforts in rich countries, though the In the face of these growing demands, constraints on benefits have so far proven limited and the future of supply are tightening. Agricultural yield in emerging these markets remains uncertain. What is certain is markets is slowing in the face of surging demand. that Africa’s farmers will bear the brunt of dangerous Ecological constraints are contributing to the pressure climate change, with drought and unpredictable on agriculture. Large areas of China and South Asia rainfall patterns reinforcing rural poverty and are facing acute water scarcity. According to the undermining food systems. United Nations Environment Programme, up to one- quarter of world food production may be “lost” during the current century as a direct result of escalating More people on a warming planet environmental degradation, including a loss of biodiversity and soil erosion.2 Population growth is increasing the number of people who have to be fed – and it is not just the number of The dramatic changes that are recasting world people that is growing. As incomes rise in emerging agricultural markets will have far-reaching markets, diets are switching towards protein-intensive consequences for Africa. Countries across the foods – dairy and meat products – that require more region are becoming increasingly vulnerable to food cereals for their production. Even in 2011/12, as price insecurity. Governments – and their development pressures moderated, the IMF estimated that global partners – need to act now to develop strategies for demand for major crops would rise by over 2 per cent. risk reduction and management (See Figure 1). 1 Helbling, T., and Roache, S. (2011) Rising prices on the menu. IMF. Retrieved March 20, 2012 from <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ fandd/2011/03/helbling.htm> 2 Nellemann, C. et al. (2009) The environment food crisis. UNEP. Retrieved March 20, 2012 from <http://www.unep.org/pdf/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf> 4 Africa Needs a Green Revolution Figure 1: FOOD SECURITY The risk of food insecurity is higher in Africa than in any other region. Despite differences within the continent, there is not a single country which is rated as low risk. In Sub-Saharan Africa, over 200 million people are food insecure. FOODFOOD SECURITY SECURITY RISK INDEX RISK INDEX Food Security Risk Index Extreme High Medium Low No data Data source: Maplecroft 2012 maplecroft™ risk responsibility reputation Maplecroft’s Food Security Risk Index assesses the risk of food insecurity, providing quantitative assessments of access and availability of food and the stability of food production systems. The FSRI also comprises indicators to measure the nutritional outcomes of each country’s relative food security. Food prices rise, and emergencies the experience of Benin and Kenya in 2011. As global continue price pressures mount, Africa’s governments need to put in place policies that will mitigate the risks facing Unstable international food prices represent one vulnerable people. Social protection programmes – area of risk. As the events of 2007/2008 and 2010 so such as Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme powerfully demonstrated, many countries in the region – can help shield poor households from food-price are poorly equipped to respond to global price surges. inflation by providing a source of income or food Countries that are large net importers of food staples – during periods of stress. Governments can also such as Ethiopia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, regulate domestic markets by building up reserves Mozambique, Niger and Mali – quickly feel the impact during periods of low prices, and releasing stocks of higher import prices. So, too, do countries that as prices rise; Cameroon has created an agency to experience drought or adverse weather conditions address the task. during periods of higher world prices, as illustrated by 5 POLICY PAPER Trade policies are also important in responding to African Human Development Report.4 Urbanisation price shifts. Misplaced policies should be avoided. In may be gathering pace, and new growth sectors mid-2011, during a major drought, Kenya maintained emerging in manufacturing, mining and services, maize prices 70 per cent higher than the already yet the livelihoods of two out of every three Africans high world prices to protect the prices paid to continue to depend on farming. Agriculture is the predominantly large-scale commercial farmers; this primary source of income for Africa’s women. Apart exacerbated underlying food security problems. A from providing jobs and food for rural populations, key policy lesson from the 2011 drought is that food Africa’s farms also supply urban areas with food. Yet importers should reduce food-price inflation through many of Africa’s farmers