1.0 INTRODUCTION 2.0 THE COUNCIL’S FIVE YEAR REQUIREMENT AND SUPPLY POSITION 3.0 NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY AND GUIDANCE 4.0 ADOPTED AND EMERGING LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 5.0 HOUSING REQUIREMENT 6.0 FIVE YEAR LAND SUPPLY 7.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 – JOHNSON BROOK TEN YEAR TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 2 – INSPECTOR’S LETTER RE CORE STRATEGY EXAMINATION 12TH MAY 2014 APPENDIX 3 – APPEAL DECISION APP/M1005/A/14/2226553, LAND AT ROES LANE, CRICH – 13TH JULY 2015 1 Johnson Brook Ltd AVBC – Five Year Housing Land Supply Review December 2015 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Johnson Brook (JB) are instructed by to review the updated position on five year housing land supply (November 2015) published by Amber Valley (‘the Council’) in July 2015. 1.2 Our assessment (‘the Assessment’) provides a detailed commentary on all aspects of ‘the ‘statement’ in order to establish whether the Council’s five year land supply position is robust. 1.3 The Council have previously acknowledged a deliverable five year housing land supply cannot be demonstrated, indeed this was the case in a recent appeal decision at Roes Lane, Crich1 (13 July 2015) to which the appointed Inspector found that the housing land supply was somewhere between 35% and 65% of the requirement. In contrast, the Council’s recently adopted position on five year housing land supply details a supply of 5.15 years for the period 2015/16 to 2019/20. 1.4 The Council have not produced a detailed commentary on specific sites, however have produced a trajectory providing the Council’s anticipated timings and delivery rates for sites forming the five year housing land supply position. The Council have then reviewed the supply position moving towards the period ending 31st March 2016, detailing a supply of 6.39 years can be demonstrated. It is noted however that retains a base date of 1st April 2015 and is therefore a six year supply calculation. The Council have not produced a calculation for the five year housing land supply position 1st April 2016 to 31st March 2021. 1.5 Whilst no specific commentary has been offered by the Council, it is understood that the improved five year housing land supply position is principally a result of the inclusion of a number of additional sites within the trajectory, including strategic sites within the emerging Core Strategy and additional sites not forming part of previous reviews. The inclusion of additional sites has been acknowledged by the appointed Inspector for the Local Plan Part 1 Core Strategy Examination in his letter dated 28th September 2015, noting:- “The resumed hearings will need to carefully scrutinise the assumptions in the appendix and the list of further sites. After such a long period of suspension it would be a matter of clear concern if, upon resumption of the hearings, the Council were still to find itself unable to demonstrate a secure supply of deliverable sites to meet the 5-year requirement. I therefore trust that the Council will continue to give this matter very careful consideration, including any contingency measures which it could introduce into the plan if there continued to be any room for doubt about the adequacy of the supply.” 1 Appeal Ref: APP/M1005/A/14/2226553 – Land at Roes Lane, Crich – Decision Date 13 July 2015 2 Johnson Brook Ltd AVBC – Five Year Housing Land Supply Review December 2015 2.0 THE COUNCIL’S FIVE YEAR REQUIREMENT AND SUPPLY POSITION 2.1 The Statement represents the Council’s full assessment of the five year housing land supply in the District for the period 1st April 2015 to 31st March 2020 together with a six year supply position 1st April 2015 to 31st March 2016. 2.2 The Council’s requirement calculation is formulated using an annual requirement of 575 dwellings multiplied across 5 years. The annual requirement was developed as part of the emerging Core Strategy through work carried out by GL Hearn on the Derby HMA. The position is set out below:- Adjusted HMA Net Housing Contribution Total Need Need 2011 - Housing Housing Completions Provision Towards City 2008 - 2028 2028 Provision Figures 2008 – 2011 2011 - 2028 Needs 2011 - 2028 AVBC 8,209 814 7,395 10,874 10,060 2,665 Derby 17,901 1,513 16,388 12,500 10,987 10,987 SDDC 10,718 1,113 9,605 13,454 12,341 2,736 HMA 36,828 3,440 33,388 36,214 33,388 16,388 2.3 Applying the above adjusted housing provision produces an annual required of 592 dwellings per annum (dpa), however in a letter set out 26th March 20152 the Council now consider the housing need for the Derby HMA to be recalculated at 32,207 dwellings for the period 2011 – 2028. It is understood this has informed the Council’s annual requirement of 575 dpa. 2.4 A 20% buffer is added to the annual requirement based on past under deliver for the period 2011/12 to 2014/15 as set out within Table 1 below:- Table 1 – AVBC Completions 2011/12 – 2014/15 Year Requirement Completions Shortfall 2011/12 575 206 -369 2012/13 575 219 -356 2013/14 575 269 -306 2014/15 575 271 -304 Total 2,300 965 -1,335 2 Letter to PINS – 26th March 2015, Amber Valley BC – Objectively Assessed Housing Need for the Derby Housing Marked Area (HMA) 3 Johnson Brook Ltd AVBC – Five Year Housing Land Supply Review December 2015 2.5 The Council’s stated 5 year requirement is summarised in Table 2 below. This table is presented as Table 2 within the Council’s recently adopted position. Table 2 – AVBC – 5 Year Requirement Rolling Five-Year Housing Requirement Units Target Provision 2011 – 2028 9,770 Required Provision 2015/16 – 2019/20 Five year basic annual average 2,875 Deficit 2011/12 – 2014/15 1.335 20% buffer for under provision 575 20% buffer on shortfall 267 Overall requirement 5,052 Residual annual requirement 1,010 2.6 The table also provides a summary of the required provision for the period 2015/16 to 2020/21, covering a period of six years. It is noted that this table also accounts for an undersupply of 1,335 dwellings and therefore does not consider any anticipated shortfall within the current period 1st April 2015 to 31st March 2016. 2.7 The Council’s current five year supply position is summarised in Table 3, this Table is replicated in Table 3 of the Council’s updated five year land supply position (November 2015). The table includes a number of sources of supply together with a five year windfall allowance in lieu of a specific list of identified smaller sites. Table 3 – AVBC – Sources of Supply Source of supply Units Adopted Local Plan sites with planning permission 1,321 Large brownfield sites with planning permission 860 Large greenfield sites with planning permission 661 Small brownfield sites (windfall allowance of 57 dpa) 285 Sites with resolution to grant subject to S106 agreement 414 Adopted Local Plan allocations without planning permission 73 Core Strategy sites without planning permission 431 Additional Core Strategy sites 942 Additional sites (Local Plan Part 2 or Neighbourhood Plans) 213 Total Supply 5,200 4 Johnson Brook Ltd AVBC – Five Year Housing Land Supply Review December 2015 2.8 In accordance with Table 3, the Council consider 5,200 dwellings are deemed to be deliverable over the next five years. The supply makes no provision for any form of slippage rate for sites yet to commence works and/or without planning permissions. 2.9 The Council’s current position is summarised in Table 4 below. Table 4 – AVBC – Five Year Supply and Requirement Five Year Supply Units Total Supply 5,200 Rolling Five Year Requirement 2015-2020 5,052 2.10 This represents a total of 5.15 years’ worth of housing land supply against an identified housing target of 5,052 dwellings over the next five years. A calculation is also provided by the Council based on a six year requirement for the period 1st April 2015 to 31st March 2021. The Council consider this would equate to a supply of 6.39 years. As previously noted, this figure does not include any anticipated shortfall for the current period 1st April 2015 to 31st March 2016. 2.11 As set out within the supply calculations at Appendix 1, Johnson Brook have assessed the Council’s anticipated delivery for Year 2015/16 (263 dwellings + 57 windfall = 320 dwellings) together with the Council’s anticipated delivery in Year 2020/21 (733 dwellings + 57 windfall = 790 dwellings). 2.12 This would result in a shortfall for the period 2015/16 of 255 dwellings against the Council’s requirement of 575 d/pa and therefore a total shortfall of 1,590 since 2011. The Council estimate a total of 5,670 dwellings can be delivered for the period 2016/17 to 2020/21 which against an adjusted requirement of 1,072 d/pa (accounting for projected 2015/16 completions) produces a supply of 5.29 years. This figure is not made clear within the Council’s published material given the authority has instead detailed its position across six years. 2.13 JB do not agree with the Council’s interpretation of the current five year requirement or their five year land supply position. 2.14 Johnson Brook have strong concerns regarding the deliverable sources of supply the Council forecast over the five year period, specifically with regards to the timing and delivery of strategic allocations which are yet to attain planning permissions.